Another 2-0 day in college football means we’re 11-2 our last 13, let’s keep the mo’ going into the NFL. To start off I know our first rule is always to keep even units, what ever it is. Never put any more value in one game than another as you always have the same chance of getting bit. However if there ever was a game that I felt more strongly than normal it is the Broncos (-3, buy the .5) going into Washington. When I looked at this I would have laid 7 or 8 and was fearing the ‘bear trap’ when I saw the line, but it’s still a go. The Broncos’ lead in the West is down to 1 game of the Chargers who are on a roll right now and this would be 3 losses in a row for Denver.
In the late game I like the Patriots (+3.5 buy the .3) at Indy. I know the Colts are unbeaten and a monster at home, but they’re nursing injuries at some key positions. They’ll be starting 2 rookie corners and no Bob Sanders against the number two offense in the league which usually is a recipe for disaster. The Pats are finally clicking offensively and are looking like the pats of 07’. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Here’s the statline:
I’m going to start off with another dog with the Stanford Cardinal (+11) on the road at USC. I know everyone remembers the upset and that might be some motivation for the men of troy but the Cardinal run the ball extremely well (211 per game) and will be able to keep SC’s offense off the field. Did you ever think you would see the day when Stanford gained more yards on the ground than USC? I think that’s a pretty big number for a team that controls the ball and doesn’t turn it over.
Next, I like Pittsburgh (-6.5, buy the .5 point) against ND. I looked at this and couldn’t figure out how it was only a touch. I realize that ND needs to become bowl eligible but Pitt needs this win to get a BCS bowl! The numbers all lean Pitts way and I can’t find a reason why ND should be within 2 scores. I realize the Big East is soft this year but then again so is ND’s schedule and they haven’t even done that well with it. Here’s the stat line, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Friday, November 6, 2009
Behind Enemy lines NCAA week 9/ NFL
Now that injury reports are in we can make a good assessment of the Sunday night game and I like the over (49.5 buy the .5 if you’re at 50) in the Dallas/Philly game. I was contemplating laying the 3 but there is way too much quant data pointing towards the over:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
So quite a few indicators point towards the over and I’m not swimming against the tide. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in ring and keep your gloves up!
Yo, this is Nicky back for more action after a 2-0 day in the NCAA so let’s try to keep the mo’ going into Sunday. I see a lot of value in getting more than a field goal with the Chargers (+4.5) at the Giants. I know the GMen have lost three straight but San Diego is playing really well right now and they can win this on the field let alone keep it close. This is also a great teaser game.
Yo, This is Nicky, for the third week in a row we’ve done at least 2-1 on the college board so thinks are starting to play true to form, so let’s try to find some value on the board. Although they’re unbeaten I’m still not sold on the Hawkeyes and although Northwestern is not a great club I think 15.5 is too much lumber for Iowa to cover, even at home. I realize Iowa is 9-1 ats in conference their last 10 but they haven’t looked good even at home and I’m going to go against the tape in this one.
Another game where I see some value is the under on the Notre Dame/Navy Game (under 56.5) I know I typically go the other way with the Irish as I think there is typically too much ‘dumb money’ no them but hear me out. Navy is 1-12 ATS their last 13 against the Irish and they only pass for an average on 71 yards per game, and that’s against bad competition. ND will go eight in the box and force them out of the option which will make it tough for the Midshipmen to put it in the endzone. It’s just too much lumber to lay on ND and I can’t trust the Irish as they are 1-6 ATS in its last 7, and 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home, so the under is the obvious choice. That’s the chowder for Saturday I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
So quite a few indicators point towards the over and I’m not swimming against the tide. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in ring and keep your gloves up!
Yo, this is Nicky back for more action after a 2-0 day in the NCAA so let’s try to keep the mo’ going into Sunday. I see a lot of value in getting more than a field goal with the Chargers (+4.5) at the Giants. I know the GMen have lost three straight but San Diego is playing really well right now and they can win this on the field let alone keep it close. This is also a great teaser game.
Yo, This is Nicky, for the third week in a row we’ve done at least 2-1 on the college board so thinks are starting to play true to form, so let’s try to find some value on the board. Although they’re unbeaten I’m still not sold on the Hawkeyes and although Northwestern is not a great club I think 15.5 is too much lumber for Iowa to cover, even at home. I realize Iowa is 9-1 ats in conference their last 10 but they haven’t looked good even at home and I’m going to go against the tape in this one.
Another game where I see some value is the under on the Notre Dame/Navy Game (under 56.5) I know I typically go the other way with the Irish as I think there is typically too much ‘dumb money’ no them but hear me out. Navy is 1-12 ATS their last 13 against the Irish and they only pass for an average on 71 yards per game, and that’s against bad competition. ND will go eight in the box and force them out of the option which will make it tough for the Midshipmen to put it in the endzone. It’s just too much lumber to lay on ND and I can’t trust the Irish as they are 1-6 ATS in its last 7, and 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home, so the under is the obvious choice. That’s the chowder for Saturday I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Behind Enemy lines week 8
Well the Giants didn’t show up last week for us and it cost us a sub-par Sunday and made for an even weekend last week so we’ve got some work to do. We had a decent 2-1 day in college on Saturday so let’s shoot for at least a 4-2 weekend and double our money. The first game I see with some value is the Buffalo Bills (+3.5) at home vs. the Texans. I know I hate betting on bad teams but I like a home dog, bad weather, and a defense that can keep them in the game. Both teams have won two straight and I see this as a field goal game. I don’t think either one is good enough to beat the other by more than a touchdown.
Next I like Ravens (-3, buy down to 2.5) at home against the Broncos. I’m one of those who still believes the they’re the worst 6-0 team in the history of the NFL and are waiting for them to come down to earth. A couple of years back an unbeaten Patriots team went into Baltimore and were lucky to get out with a win that some say the didn’t get even today. This Denver team is not in the same universe as that Pats team and the Ravens have a way of getting up for marquis games, and is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver.
Lastly, I’m going to go with the Ca’Boys (-9.5 buy down to 9)over the Seachickens it’s not so much my faith in Romo as much as how well they’re playing protecting their new house (7-2 SU in its last 9, and 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home)and how bad Seattle is on the road. The Boys’ are also 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle, so a little ownership. That's the chowder for this week, I'm Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!
Yo, this is Nicky back for more damage after a 2-1 weekend last week (Ole Miss cost us) and 5-1 over the last two weeks, we finally got a little momentum so let’s keep it going this week. It’s a tough week to call out there as it’s that time of year that you have to factor in all of the whether and injuries. With that in mind the first pick of the weekend is the under on ND/Washington St (-60.5, buy the .5) I know we haven’t played an under in a while but hear me out. Washington only averages 14 points per game with most of those coming during bench clearing time. The only question here is how much is Jimmy Clausen going to throw as he’s still in the Heisman race. Not enough to drop a fiddy spot so I like the under. Also ND has only covered once has a favorite this year and that was against Nevada on opening day, otherwise they’re 0-5. If that trend holds then who is going to score over 30 to get the over?
Next I like the Trojans (-3, buy down to 2.5) going up to Eugene to take one the Ducks. This is the biggest game in the Pac-10 this year and I realize how much of a roll O is on but they are just too banged up to stop the USC on offense. Their secondary is so depleted they had to ask a red-shirt to suit up. They face quite the dilemma as they can’t go 8 in the box to stop the run (SC averages 198 yards per game on the ground) because of the secondary and they can’t send help to cover the SC speed or size at the skill positions because of the running game. Now you stat lovers aren’t going to like this call as Oregon is 4-0 ATS against P-10 opponents and have covered 5 straight games, but you can’t quantify injuries.
The last game I like is Texas Tech (-7, buy down to 6.5) the Aggies lead the nation in passing and score plenty to cover this number. A win makes them bowl eligible and they cover well when playing within the conference at 7-3ATS, including 6-1 against Kansas their last 7 games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!
Who do you like on Saturday? Bounce your ideas off Nicky, and other player's in the Player's Club chat rooms.
See all of the up to date betting lines here.
Next I like Ravens (-3, buy down to 2.5) at home against the Broncos. I’m one of those who still believes the they’re the worst 6-0 team in the history of the NFL and are waiting for them to come down to earth. A couple of years back an unbeaten Patriots team went into Baltimore and were lucky to get out with a win that some say the didn’t get even today. This Denver team is not in the same universe as that Pats team and the Ravens have a way of getting up for marquis games, and is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver.
Lastly, I’m going to go with the Ca’Boys (-9.5 buy down to 9)over the Seachickens it’s not so much my faith in Romo as much as how well they’re playing protecting their new house (7-2 SU in its last 9, and 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home)and how bad Seattle is on the road. The Boys’ are also 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle, so a little ownership. That's the chowder for this week, I'm Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!
Yo, this is Nicky back for more damage after a 2-1 weekend last week (Ole Miss cost us) and 5-1 over the last two weeks, we finally got a little momentum so let’s keep it going this week. It’s a tough week to call out there as it’s that time of year that you have to factor in all of the whether and injuries. With that in mind the first pick of the weekend is the under on ND/Washington St (-60.5, buy the .5) I know we haven’t played an under in a while but hear me out. Washington only averages 14 points per game with most of those coming during bench clearing time. The only question here is how much is Jimmy Clausen going to throw as he’s still in the Heisman race. Not enough to drop a fiddy spot so I like the under. Also ND has only covered once has a favorite this year and that was against Nevada on opening day, otherwise they’re 0-5. If that trend holds then who is going to score over 30 to get the over?
Next I like the Trojans (-3, buy down to 2.5) going up to Eugene to take one the Ducks. This is the biggest game in the Pac-10 this year and I realize how much of a roll O is on but they are just too banged up to stop the USC on offense. Their secondary is so depleted they had to ask a red-shirt to suit up. They face quite the dilemma as they can’t go 8 in the box to stop the run (SC averages 198 yards per game on the ground) because of the secondary and they can’t send help to cover the SC speed or size at the skill positions because of the running game. Now you stat lovers aren’t going to like this call as Oregon is 4-0 ATS against P-10 opponents and have covered 5 straight games, but you can’t quantify injuries.
The last game I like is Texas Tech (-7, buy down to 6.5) the Aggies lead the nation in passing and score plenty to cover this number. A win makes them bowl eligible and they cover well when playing within the conference at 7-3ATS, including 6-1 against Kansas their last 7 games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!
Who do you like on Saturday? Bounce your ideas off Nicky, and other player's in the Player's Club chat rooms.
See all of the up to date betting lines here.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Behind Enemy Lines Week 7 College/nfl week 6
Ok, I’m back to do more damage and we’ve finally gotten on the roll we were looking for. We followed up a 3-0 college weekend with a 2-1 day yesterday. Now we working on a 2-1 NFL week last week so let’s get to it. This week is tough because the teams we like to win are laying some huge lumber so we need to be selective and get the most value. One game I really like is the Gmen (-7, buy it down to 6.5). I like the fact that their coming off a loss, that we’ve got a warm weather team playing in terrible conditions, and very late game for them. On the quant side it looks good for the GMen as the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, 5-1 SU in their last 6, NY is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home, and lastly the Giants are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games at home.
Next, I’m going to ask you to get out the chain saw and lay a bunch of lumber with the Colts (-14, buy it to under 2 tds to 13.5). The Lambs are so bad they are like a division I school right now, Freeny is coming back making the to Colt D and entirely different team and even though they’re on the road it’s still in a dome game. The numbers like them as well as Indy is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road, 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road, and 4-1 ATS their last 5 overall.
Laslty, I’m going to take the Vikings +6.5 against the Steelers. I know AD is probable and Troy is going to play but that’s a ton of points for a team that turns the ball over as much as Pittsburgh does and that can not seem to close games out this year. What does scare me is a dome team going outside but Favre is pretty well accustomed to bad weather. The numbers tilt the Vikings way as well as they are 4-2 ATS in its last 6, 5-0 SU in its last 5 games, and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road. On the other side Pitt is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
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Yo, this is Nicky and it may have taken 6 weeks but we finally had our first 3-0 college weekend (we also went 2-1 in the NFL), now the objective is to keep the mo’ going, but as the season gets longer we have the advantage as the surprises should be less frequent. That said, I see some value in 3 of the games on Saturday so let’s get to it. Firstly, I like Texas (-12) at Missouri. Ok, based on records I would take the home dog but when you dig a little deeper you see that Mizzu has only beaten bad teams (Nevada, Furman, Bowling Green) and gotten whacked when they played anyone half decent (Nebraska, Oklahoma St). Also for you quants, Mizzu is 0-5 vs. Texas their last 5 meetings.
Another game that looks like there is some good value is Arizona(-7 buy the hook if have to) against UCLA. Arizona is a very good home team while UCLA is terrible on the road (2-9 last 11). Moreover Arizona is 6-2 in its last 8 games (5-0 at home), and the Cats are 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing UCLA. UCLA also has that deadly combination of being ranked 101st in nation in total offense and 79th against the run on defense. I was surprised this line wasn’t 10 but I’ll take it at a touch and this game makes for a great teaser as well.
Lastly, I really like Arkansas (+6.5) at Ole Miss. The Rebels look to be a bit of a fraud as they paded their stats with the feeder fish on their schedule ( UAB, Vandy, Southeastern Louisiana) but got smoked in their only two SEC games (SC, Bama) by an average of 26 points. Ole Miss is also 0-5 ATS when playing Arkansas. Meanwhile the Razorbacks keep most games close with the exception of the Alabama game, have covered three straight games and are 14th in the nation in total scoring offense. Exactly what you want when you’re getting points. Ok, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
Next, I’m going to ask you to get out the chain saw and lay a bunch of lumber with the Colts (-14, buy it to under 2 tds to 13.5). The Lambs are so bad they are like a division I school right now, Freeny is coming back making the to Colt D and entirely different team and even though they’re on the road it’s still in a dome game. The numbers like them as well as Indy is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road, 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road, and 4-1 ATS their last 5 overall.
Laslty, I’m going to take the Vikings +6.5 against the Steelers. I know AD is probable and Troy is going to play but that’s a ton of points for a team that turns the ball over as much as Pittsburgh does and that can not seem to close games out this year. What does scare me is a dome team going outside but Favre is pretty well accustomed to bad weather. The numbers tilt the Vikings way as well as they are 4-2 ATS in its last 6, 5-0 SU in its last 5 games, and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road. On the other side Pitt is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
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Yo, this is Nicky and it may have taken 6 weeks but we finally had our first 3-0 college weekend (we also went 2-1 in the NFL), now the objective is to keep the mo’ going, but as the season gets longer we have the advantage as the surprises should be less frequent. That said, I see some value in 3 of the games on Saturday so let’s get to it. Firstly, I like Texas (-12) at Missouri. Ok, based on records I would take the home dog but when you dig a little deeper you see that Mizzu has only beaten bad teams (Nevada, Furman, Bowling Green) and gotten whacked when they played anyone half decent (Nebraska, Oklahoma St). Also for you quants, Mizzu is 0-5 vs. Texas their last 5 meetings.
Another game that looks like there is some good value is Arizona(-7 buy the hook if have to) against UCLA. Arizona is a very good home team while UCLA is terrible on the road (2-9 last 11). Moreover Arizona is 6-2 in its last 8 games (5-0 at home), and the Cats are 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing UCLA. UCLA also has that deadly combination of being ranked 101st in nation in total offense and 79th against the run on defense. I was surprised this line wasn’t 10 but I’ll take it at a touch and this game makes for a great teaser as well.
Lastly, I really like Arkansas (+6.5) at Ole Miss. The Rebels look to be a bit of a fraud as they paded their stats with the feeder fish on their schedule ( UAB, Vandy, Southeastern Louisiana) but got smoked in their only two SEC games (SC, Bama) by an average of 26 points. Ole Miss is also 0-5 ATS when playing Arkansas. Meanwhile the Razorbacks keep most games close with the exception of the Alabama game, have covered three straight games and are 14th in the nation in total scoring offense. Exactly what you want when you’re getting points. Ok, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
