Sunday, September 28, 2014

Behind Enemy Lines in the NFL

Yo, this is Nicky and we split the day in college football as Duke drowned in the monsoon in Miami but Washington played hard at home and stopped just short of sending the game into OT. So were 4-3 on the young season and it’s time to get some separation and cover that vig so let’s get to it. On Sunday afternoon I like the Eagles (+4.5) as a road dog at the new Levi Stadium. I know it would be tough for the Niners to 0-2 in their new house but this isn’t a good matchup for them. Philly is 4-1 ATS vs. SF over their last 5, it classic smashmouth vs. finesse. Both teams have owned separate halves this season with the Niners being the first half club and Philly the 2nd. This could also mean one team is able to scheme at halftime and the other not. Philly has been the hot team between the two, winners of 5 of their last 6. This should also be a high scoring game as the total has gone over in 6 of the last 8 Philly games and 5 of the Niners last 6. That’s one bowl of chowda’, back with a second helping soon…… Ok, so the flow of the week has been that the teams that got whacked last week like Tampa Bay have come out and played hard today. That kind of scares me about the Minnesota game but I just can see the rooking Q hanging with the Falcons, so I’m going to lay the small lumber (-2.5 buy the hook) and take the Falcons to beat the Vikings. Atlanta is a terrible road team going only 1-8 over their last 9 and that’s the only reason this isn’t a touchdown line but they’re 4-2 their last 6 against the Vikings and that’s why I going to buy this down. That’s the last of the Sunday chowda’ I’m Nicky back tomorrow with the Monday Night game, in the meantime stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Behind Enemy Lines in College Football

Yo, this is Nicky and we’re coming off our first undefeated weekend last weekend to get us above .500 for the season at 3-2, now it’s time to start doing some damage to the sportsbook so let’s get to it. On Saturday in the afternoon I like Washington (+8) at home to keep the game close with Stanford. This game is a total paradox as the experienced Stanford defense, and their ground-n-pound physical offense takes on the youthful spread offense of Washington. Needless to say it will be a little loud at Husky Stadium. The Huskies tend to play Stanford well, 2-0 ATS over the past 3 seasons. I think they will keep this game close and remember the rule, don’t bet on a dog that you don’t think can win on the field and UW has a good shot of doing that. I love getting a touchdown at home. That’s the early afternoon chowda’ back with a second helping shortly. In the late afternoon games I like Duke (+7.5) against Miami. The Canes are simply a program in disarray and Duke is much better than people know. Despite a solid performance from freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya, the 'Canes fell 41-31 to Nebraska, while Duke improved to 4-0 after dismantling Tulane 47-13. Last season, the Blue Devils shredded Miami for 358 yards on the ground, earning an 18-point victory over the Duke Johnson-less Hurricanes. For you quants Duke is a great cover team, probably due to the lack of respect, going 14-4 ATS over their last 18 games. I think they can win this one on the field as well. That’s the Saturday second helping, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! DUKE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons. DUKE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons. DUKE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons. DUKE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. Head-to-Head Series History MIAMI is 1-1 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons 2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Behind Enemy Lines on the last Summer Sunday

Yo This is Nicky and we’re feeling the bumps and broses of the new season as that Indy loss at home was brutal and Luck not being able to put a drive together really surprised me as well as putting a dent in my pocket book but as that defines staying in the ring and keep you your gloves up so let’s get to it. On Sunday I like the CaBoyz’ (-2) on the road against the Rams. I’ve looked at this and tried to find a reason why this line isn’t a field goal higher and I can’t find one. I know Romo’s back isn’t 100% but is that such a bad thing? Don’t get me wrong I’m not capping on Tony or anything but it may make Dallas finally commit to the run and they’re a much better team when they do. Maybe it’s because Dallas is 2-5 ATS over their last 7, but then again the Rams are 3-7 ATS over their last 10 when playing Dallas so make of that what you will. With no Sam Bradford and a week to scout the backup I still think the Rams will have problems scoring points. That’s the chowda’, I’m Nicky, you know what to do.

Monday, September 15, 2014

Behind Enemy Lines on Monday Night Football

Yo, This is Nicky and we got in the win column as the Pats scored 30 straight points to easily cover a 4 point line, 30-7. I was wondering how that line was less than a touchdown when AD wasn’t playing. So now we’re moving on to the Monday night game where I like the Colts (-2.5 buy the hook) to hold serve at home against the Eagles. This should be a high scoring affair and the over is in the stratosphere, but it’s still way too early to know if the offense has caught up with the defenses. I do know that Indy has gone over in 9 of their last 13 games, and Philly 4 of its last 6 so if there is going to be ample scoring I like the home team on turf that is trying to avoid an 0-2 start. The only real trend is that Philly is 1-4 against Indy over their last 5 and didn’t cover in their only win to go 0-5 ATS. That’s the Monday Night chowda’ I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Behind Enemy Lines in the NFL

Yo, this is Nicky and it’s always dangerous to be in the fray on New Year’s Day as you don’t have any hard data to go off of other than some bad pre-season games, and we paid the price going 0-2 between college and pro last week so we got some work to do to get back to sea level so let’s get to it. In the early games on Sunday I like the Patriots (-3.5 buy the hook) to go into Minnesota and beat the Vikings who will be without the services of Adrian Peterson. Miami’s ability to run the ball was the key to their victory against the Pats last week and I don’t see the Vikings having the same success. Bill Belichick knows all the numbers about going 0-2 and making the Super Bowl and doubt he’ll let his club not be ready to play on Sunday. That’s the morning chowda’, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, September 6, 2014

Behind Enemy Lines on opening weekend

Yo, this is Nicky and we didn’t get the new year off to a good start as Michigan State simply ran out of gas against the Oregon Ducks yesterday in the fourth quarter and dropped us to 0-1 on the young season but no doubt this is a marathon and not a sprint so let’s get to it. In the early NFL games I like the Chicago Bears (-6.5 buy the hook) to win at home against the Buffalo Bills. Aside from the circus that is their front office and the ownership of the team, they’ve go a ton of questions on both sides of the ball. Whether or not the Bills will be able to pass efficiently will come down to whether or not they can establish the run. The Bears know it's coming based on Buffalo's tendencies and how bad they were in that area a year ago. The Bills know the Bears know it's coming. That battle of wills will determine whether or not the Bears have to commit extra defenders to stopping the run, thereby opening themselves up to deep shots and the play-action (Chicago gave up an abysmal 8.6 yards per play against play fakes last season), or if they'll be able to drop seven into coverage and force Manuel to play darts all afternoon. If the Bills are going to compete in this game, they're going to have to run the ball extremely well and that will be a problem against the new look Bears defense. Lay the lumber as being at home will be the difference in this one. That’s the morning chowda’ I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! ****************************** Yo, This is Nicky and let me be the first to wish all of you a Happy New Year!! Its that time of year again and after a long hibernation I’m ready to jump back into fray. I know it’s tough to call em’ during the first couple of weeks of the season as the schools don’t even have two games under their belt but there is also some value there if you do your homework so let’s get to it. In the afternoon games I like Michigan State +12 to keep it close against Oregon in a huge game for both schools and both conferences. The Big 10 lost it’s flagship team when Ohio State dropped 5 spots in the rankings even though they won their opening game, but with no Braxton Miller they’re not foolin’ anyone that they’re going to the final four so a State victory would be huge for the conference. You can really look at any stats other than returning starters but the club the defending Rose Bowl champs are sending a big team out West that will be physical with the Ducks and if they can slow the pace of that offense by keeping it off the field Oregon will have a tough time getting that juggernaut going down hill. This one should be close, and remember the ‘dog’ rule… never bet on a dog you don’t think can win on the field, so you’ll never see my taking 30+ point pooch, and these dawgs in green and white are capable of going into sea of yellow and coming out with a w. That’s the first of many bowls of chowda, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Back with the NFL later tonight.
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.