Friday, January 17, 2014

Behind Enemy Lines on Championship Sunday

Yo, this is Nicky and we got evened up last week as we dropped both games as the Saints didn’t show up and the Pats did in a big way so we were zigging when we should have been sagging and now are 3-3 during the NFL playoffs. Let’s get back into the win column today and try to run the table to finish out the season. In the early game I like the Pats +5, (strange I’ve seen it as low as +4 so if you’ve got two books see if you can middle that pick), to go on the road, control the ball with the running game and keep that game close. Brady and Belichick are undefeated as playoff dogs of 5 or more and that seems to be the number today. I’ve been picking against the Pats in two previous games thinking with no Gronk they just couldn’t put up enough points to win let alone cover the lumber they usually are asked to lay but they seem to keep doing it as they are 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992 and 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons. I think they’re going to hang in this one and maybe pull a St. Louis, shock most of the betting world, and win on the field. Pro Football Trend Report NEW ENGLAND (13 - 4) at DENVER (14 - 3)- 1/19/2014, 3:00 PM Top Trends for this game. DENVER is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992. NEW ENGLAND is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. NEW ENGLAND is 80-47 ATS (+28.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992. NEW ENGLAND is 160-120 ATS (+28.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992. NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 98-71 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992. NEW ENGLAND is 69-44 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992. Head-to-Head Series History NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons 4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons In the NFC Championship I’m going to stay with the road dog and take the 49’ers +3.5 to beat Seattle. Now we can talk about the Hawks home record and the 12th man all day but what can’t be disputed is that Russell Wilson hasn’t played well in weeks, isn’t giving the run game a whole lot of support, and the defense is carrying the club right now. These are some pretty bright lights and CKap has been here 3 years running and if I had to pick which one would look better I would certainly go with him. On the quant side the Niners’ seem to have a impeccable cover record in most scenarios That’s the Championship Day chowder I’m Nicky still hanging around the top 10 on Beat the Insiders 14 out of 40,989 let’s see if we can get into the top 10. Stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Pro Football Trend Report SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 4) at SEATTLE (14 - 3) - 1/19/2014, 6:30 PM Top Trends for this game. SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons. SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons. SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons. SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons. SEATTLE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. SEATTLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons. SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons. SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season. Head-to-Head Series History SEATTLE is 5-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons SAN FRANCISCO is 4-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons 4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.