Saturday, January 4, 2014

Behind Enemy Lines on Wild Card Weekend

Yo, this is Nicky and at the time we posted our second pick of the day yesterday we were still sweating out the Colts as that one came back to us from the abyss into the win column and we ended up going 2-0 for the day as the Saints were only out of the cover for a couple of minutes in the second quarter but from then on is was all good and they covered us for fun, winning on the field. In the Sunday early game I like the Bengals (-6.5 buy that hook as it may be crucial) to beat the Chargers at home. Had San Diego not backed in by the most improbable of scenarios and amazing games I wouldn’t be the least concerned but I’ve seen it too many times that a sleeper ends up making a deep run, perhaps all the way to the podium at the end and with all due respect to the Superchargers, they should be basking the in sun in southern Cal watching this game on TV, but they’ll be there trying to take our money. Karma aside the Chargers are 1-5 ATS against the Bengals while not only is Cincinnati 8-0 at home this year but also 8-0 ATS so they take care of business when in their crib. Weather aside, the striped ones should win take this one and move on to take on the Pats at the Razor. That’s the early morning chowda’ back with the late game shortly. Yo, this is Nicky and we’re currently sweating it out to see if the Colts can hang on to cover us after an amazing comeback (we’ll talk about that later) but let’s look into the second game while first unfolds. In the late game I’m going to stay on the train and take the points in the second game as well as the Saints (+3.5 buy the hook) travel to the cold of Philly. I know, I know, dome team, outside in the elements, blab bla bla, but I’m still not sold on Nick Folds yet, by the way he has to play outdoors as well as Drew Brees, and it’s his first post-season game. The Eagles are 1-4 their last five games against the Saints, but I gotta admit the Saints being 1-5 ATS their last six on the road has me a bit concerned. In reality, the Saints beat the Bears outside in Chicago and played very good games on the road against the Pats and Panthers, losing both of those in the last minute. The Eagles D has improved since the middle of the season but they still have holes that we look for Brees to exploit. That’s the late game chowda’ I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
Yo, this is Nicky as I previously stated in prior blogs we found out the hard way why the bowl games are no place for us as we missed on our Georgia Bulldogs pick in a big way. Losing on the field when you’re a 9-point favorite means you had no business picking that game. So rest assured I’m quite happy to see the NFL back in gear as these are games that at least have the faintest chance of playing true to form. With that said, let’s get into the mire that is the NFL playoffs. On Saturday there are two games that have very attractive lines and if you’re not a fan of any of the participants they seem like clear games to call but that’s why they play the game (but the spread does add a very compelling element!). In the early game I like the Colts (-1.5) to hold serve against a very questionable Kansas City Chiefs team that hasn’t had to play a game of any meaning in quite some time, and the last good team that they beat was the Eagles on 9/19. The Chiefs quite simply beat up on some bad teams, playing a last place schedule, clinched a playoff birth early, and had everyone fooled into believing they were a contender. The combined records of the teams they’ve beaten is 33-79 and when the big dogs come home the result will probably be different. Conversely, the Colts have improved after a mid-season slump and have beaten some of the best in league including wins over the 49’ers, Seahawks, and Broncos – one could arguably make the case for them being the best in the league right now so I like their resume. I’m in the camp, and have seen many recent examples, that the old betting adage that it’s touch to beat a good team twice in one season is a farce and rather than looking and the December 22nd 23-7 l beatdown as a harbinger of things to come rather than a warning sign. For you quants – the Colts are 13-3 straight up and 12-4 ATS at home since drafting Andrew Luck back in 2012, and are 5-1 against the chiefs at home over their last 6 games (4-2 ATS). Meanwhile the Chiefs are 2-12 their last 14 games against Indy, and 3-11 ATS. That’s the frist course of playoff chowda’ with second helpings to come later. Stay in the ring and keep you gloves up! Back with the second game shortly.

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12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.