Friday, January 17, 2014

Behind Enemy Lines on Championship Sunday

Yo, this is Nicky and we got evened up last week as we dropped both games as the Saints didn’t show up and the Pats did in a big way so we were zigging when we should have been sagging and now are 3-3 during the NFL playoffs. Let’s get back into the win column today and try to run the table to finish out the season. In the early game I like the Pats +5, (strange I’ve seen it as low as +4 so if you’ve got two books see if you can middle that pick), to go on the road, control the ball with the running game and keep that game close. Brady and Belichick are undefeated as playoff dogs of 5 or more and that seems to be the number today. I’ve been picking against the Pats in two previous games thinking with no Gronk they just couldn’t put up enough points to win let alone cover the lumber they usually are asked to lay but they seem to keep doing it as they are 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992 and 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons. I think they’re going to hang in this one and maybe pull a St. Louis, shock most of the betting world, and win on the field. Pro Football Trend Report NEW ENGLAND (13 - 4) at DENVER (14 - 3)- 1/19/2014, 3:00 PM Top Trends for this game. DENVER is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992. NEW ENGLAND is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. NEW ENGLAND is 80-47 ATS (+28.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992. NEW ENGLAND is 160-120 ATS (+28.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992. NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 98-71 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992. NEW ENGLAND is 69-44 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992. Head-to-Head Series History NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons 4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons In the NFC Championship I’m going to stay with the road dog and take the 49’ers +3.5 to beat Seattle. Now we can talk about the Hawks home record and the 12th man all day but what can’t be disputed is that Russell Wilson hasn’t played well in weeks, isn’t giving the run game a whole lot of support, and the defense is carrying the club right now. These are some pretty bright lights and CKap has been here 3 years running and if I had to pick which one would look better I would certainly go with him. On the quant side the Niners’ seem to have a impeccable cover record in most scenarios That’s the Championship Day chowder I’m Nicky still hanging around the top 10 on Beat the Insiders 14 out of 40,989 let’s see if we can get into the top 10. Stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Pro Football Trend Report SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 4) at SEATTLE (14 - 3) - 1/19/2014, 6:30 PM Top Trends for this game. SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons. SEATTLE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons. SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons. SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons. SEATTLE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. SEATTLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons. SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons. SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season. Head-to-Head Series History SEATTLE is 5-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons SAN FRANCISCO is 4-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons 4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Behind Enemy Lines on a Divsional Sunday

Yo, this is Nicky and we're 2-1 in the divisonal round after the Niners took care of us on Sunday morning so we're looking to move to 3-1 in the Divisonal round. The Pats surprised us yesterday by easily covering at home agianst the Colts as Andrew was unLucky serving up 2 picks which didn't help but we're not going to waiver from our concept that the AFC is too competitive to lay double digit points in playoff games, particulalry to a team that you've seen twice prior. For that reason we're going to take all that lumber Chargers +9 to give the Ponies all they can handle at Mile High. They're playing with house money and have already proven that they can win up there. I'm still not sold that they have the "blueprint" for beating Denver but they certainly have enough talent to hank tough and in the wind that Denver passing game may be just a little bit off in regards to timing and that can make a difference. That's the late game chowda' I'm Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, January 11, 2014

Behind Enemy Lines in the Divsional Round

Yo , this is Nicky and after starting the playoffs 3-1 we dropped our last NFL pick and didn’t hit the BCS Championship as Auburn surprised me and not only kept it close but perhaps should have won the game on the field. In the League we nailed the Wild Card Round but lost the last game as the SuperChargers went into Cincy and never needed the lumber as they easily won the game on the field. But this is a new week and we’ve got work to do so let’s get to it. I think it’s going to be a road show on Saturday as the early game I like the Saints (+9) going into Seattle. Straight up I don’t expect the Saints to win this game on the field but I do expect it to be much closer than people think. Wilson hasn’t looked good his last three games and the weather will play a big part as even with Percy Harvin I don’t expect the Hawks to hit their season average and that makes a ten point cover tough to do. The Saints are 1-4 ATS on the road against the Hawks and perhaps that’s why the line is so fat but the fact that Seattle opened up both cans of whoppin’ on them the last time they played makes be believe the Saints will bring a much better effort this time around and keep this one close. That’s the early game chowda’ I’m Nicky, and we’re still ranked #18 out of 40,949 on Showtime’s Beat the Insiders, hopefully we’ll get back in the top ten after this week. Stay in the ring and keep your glove’s up! Back with the late game shortly. In the late game on Saturday I’m going to go with the points and take the Colts (+7) going into the Razor to take on the Pats. I love the Brady/Belichick combination in the post season and realize New England is 8-0 at home this year but this is strictly a line play. It was only last season when the Patriots were undefeated at home, hosting the AFC Championship Game against a Ravens team that they looked better than on paper, and were laying 8 points. Go back an read the archives on the site, I wrote the same thing before that game as well, that this betting line is based on the reputation of the name on the helmets and not the current team on the field. How the Pats got this far with this team in beyond me, Bill has patched the ship up with duct tape and super glue and managed to win enough close games to host a playoff game. The weather will help but there are just too many holes in the Pats defense and add the loss of Spikes this week and I don’t see how they can score enough points to cover that big lumber it what will be a close game. Luck will not have the type of game he had on his first visit to the Razor and that will be the difference.

Monday, January 6, 2014

Behind Enemy Lines during the BCS Final

Yo, this is Nicky and although we haven’t done well in the collegiate ranks this bowl season, you can’t stay on the sidelines during the National Championship Game go let’s put our helmet on and get into the game. We’ve been wise with our choices over the last two weeks, including going 3-1 over Wild Card Weekend. On Monday Night the National Championship Game will take center stage and it’s an intriguing matchup because of the trend of Bowl Season where the dogs have really been barking (4-0 ATS in BCS Games). If you’ve been riding that bull then stay on it till she bucks ya’ but I’m going to lay the lumber and take the Noles’ minus -9. I’ve heard all of the strength of schedule arguments as well as the ‘team of destiny’ bs, and I’m not buyin’. Florida State has been smokin’ fools all season and if the bright lights of LA are too bright for Auburn they will find themselves down a couple of scores that won’t be made up. There’s some chowda’ to go with your BCS Championship game, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, January 4, 2014

Behind Enemy Lines on Wild Card Weekend

Yo, this is Nicky and at the time we posted our second pick of the day yesterday we were still sweating out the Colts as that one came back to us from the abyss into the win column and we ended up going 2-0 for the day as the Saints were only out of the cover for a couple of minutes in the second quarter but from then on is was all good and they covered us for fun, winning on the field. In the Sunday early game I like the Bengals (-6.5 buy that hook as it may be crucial) to beat the Chargers at home. Had San Diego not backed in by the most improbable of scenarios and amazing games I wouldn’t be the least concerned but I’ve seen it too many times that a sleeper ends up making a deep run, perhaps all the way to the podium at the end and with all due respect to the Superchargers, they should be basking the in sun in southern Cal watching this game on TV, but they’ll be there trying to take our money. Karma aside the Chargers are 1-5 ATS against the Bengals while not only is Cincinnati 8-0 at home this year but also 8-0 ATS so they take care of business when in their crib. Weather aside, the striped ones should win take this one and move on to take on the Pats at the Razor. That’s the early morning chowda’ back with the late game shortly. Yo, this is Nicky and we’re currently sweating it out to see if the Colts can hang on to cover us after an amazing comeback (we’ll talk about that later) but let’s look into the second game while first unfolds. In the late game I’m going to stay on the train and take the points in the second game as well as the Saints (+3.5 buy the hook) travel to the cold of Philly. I know, I know, dome team, outside in the elements, blab bla bla, but I’m still not sold on Nick Folds yet, by the way he has to play outdoors as well as Drew Brees, and it’s his first post-season game. The Eagles are 1-4 their last five games against the Saints, but I gotta admit the Saints being 1-5 ATS their last six on the road has me a bit concerned. In reality, the Saints beat the Bears outside in Chicago and played very good games on the road against the Pats and Panthers, losing both of those in the last minute. The Eagles D has improved since the middle of the season but they still have holes that we look for Brees to exploit. That’s the late game chowda’ I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
Yo, this is Nicky as I previously stated in prior blogs we found out the hard way why the bowl games are no place for us as we missed on our Georgia Bulldogs pick in a big way. Losing on the field when you’re a 9-point favorite means you had no business picking that game. So rest assured I’m quite happy to see the NFL back in gear as these are games that at least have the faintest chance of playing true to form. With that said, let’s get into the mire that is the NFL playoffs. On Saturday there are two games that have very attractive lines and if you’re not a fan of any of the participants they seem like clear games to call but that’s why they play the game (but the spread does add a very compelling element!). In the early game I like the Colts (-1.5) to hold serve against a very questionable Kansas City Chiefs team that hasn’t had to play a game of any meaning in quite some time, and the last good team that they beat was the Eagles on 9/19. The Chiefs quite simply beat up on some bad teams, playing a last place schedule, clinched a playoff birth early, and had everyone fooled into believing they were a contender. The combined records of the teams they’ve beaten is 33-79 and when the big dogs come home the result will probably be different. Conversely, the Colts have improved after a mid-season slump and have beaten some of the best in league including wins over the 49’ers, Seahawks, and Broncos – one could arguably make the case for them being the best in the league right now so I like their resume. I’m in the camp, and have seen many recent examples, that the old betting adage that it’s touch to beat a good team twice in one season is a farce and rather than looking and the December 22nd 23-7 l beatdown as a harbinger of things to come rather than a warning sign. For you quants – the Colts are 13-3 straight up and 12-4 ATS at home since drafting Andrew Luck back in 2012, and are 5-1 against the chiefs at home over their last 6 games (4-2 ATS). Meanwhile the Chiefs are 2-12 their last 14 games against Indy, and 3-11 ATS. That’s the frist course of playoff chowda’ with second helpings to come later. Stay in the ring and keep you gloves up! Back with the second game shortly.

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Behind Enemy Lines on New Year's Day

Yo, this is Nicky and I’ve been paying close attention to the bowl games this season and I gotta’ tell ya some of them would be pretty frustrating if you had money on the line and you’re watching wide outs and tight ends drop balls that could be moving the sticks, it makes you want to pack it in and wait for the NFL playoffs but I see some good value on the board in the final week of bowl season so let’s get to it. In the Rose Bowl I like Stanford Cardinal (-6.5 buy the hook) to beat the Spartans of Michigan St. These teams are so evenly matched and don’t make many mistakes so the little things will play a big roll. State losing arguably their best player defensively and being 26 years removed from the grand ‘daddy’ if they come out cold they may not get a chance to catch up the Cardinal as Stanford should be able to control the clock and move the ball with a very balanced attack. They’re fundamentally sound, well coached, don’t make mistakes, and by affiliation are a smart team, and based on what we’ve seen thus far that’s what wins ballgames. That’s the New Year’s Day Chowda’ I’m Nicky, we’ll be back tomorrow with one more bowl pick and the NFL Wildcard weekend.
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.