Friday, November 29, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines on Thanksgiving Weekend

Yo this Nicky and we’re on one of those rolls again as the Rams easily covered us on Sunday and Oklahoma State didn’t need any of the lumber on Saturday, that makes 3 in a row for us so let’s keep the mo’ going on Thanksgiving weekend. On Saturday I like Stanford (-14.5) to easily handle Notre Dame at home. Stanford is 17-2 its last 19 and playing tough competition. A stingy defense that allows only 19 points per game against much more potent offenses than they will see Saturday and a rushing game that should be able to move the ball at will against ND that almost gives up 200 ypg. Most importantly, a loss allows Oregon to take the Pac-12 North title and that is simply not going to happen on “The Farm”. I also like Clemson (-4) going into South Carolina to take on the Head Ball Coach and the Gamecocks. South Carolina has never had a streak of five consecutive wins over Clemson. The favored Gamecocks may well find themselves in the position of trying to protect a lead throughout a tough second half against a Clemson team that's not only trying to prevent such history but also has a BCS bowl berth of their own on the line. Simultaneously, the Gamecocks may well also be in the position of learning with increasing dismay that one of the best teams in Missouri history is pulling away from visiting Texas A&M as the game wears on in "Columbia West." That's the chowda' I'm Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines on a Statement Game Sunday

Yo, this is Nicky and we managed to get back in the win column in college football yesterday as Ok State easily took care of business on the field yesterday let alone with the additional nine points, for fun. We’ve had a little better streak in the NFL as that has been a little easier to call so let’s hope that train keeps going as we get into the trenches so let’s get to it. In the early games I like the St. Louis Rams (-.5 buy the hook) to beat the Bears at home. Regardless if Cutler plays or not the Bears are 1-6 ATS their last seven games and this is the Rams do-or-die game for the playoffs at 4-6, and have dropped two straight at home I look for them to bounce back and win this one on the field, which means a cover. That’s the early morning chowda’ I’m Nicky, be back later for the late game. CHICAGO BEARS ST. LOUIS RAMS 6-4 November 24, 1:00 PM | Turf of Edward Jones Dome 4-6 BETTING TRENDS CHICAGO Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 12 games Chicago is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing St. Louis Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis Chicago is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against St. Louis ST. LOUIS St. Louis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games at home St. Louis is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home St. Louis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 9 games when playing Chicago St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago St. Louis is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Chicago St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines to start Thanksgiving Week

Yo, this is Nicky and the Ravens did everything they could to lose the game on the field against the Bears but just enough to cover the spread so we ended up with a split last weekend after the painful Georgia “hail Mary” loss to Auburn, but there is some value on the table for this weekend on both days so let’s back to work. On Saturday I like two games on the docket that go off later in the day. I like the Oklahoma State Cowboys +8.5 at home against Baylor. I know Baylor has every arrow on the board facing their direction but their strength of schedule has a lot to do with that, and I like what I’ve seen of the Ok St. defense the last three games, particularly against Texas. For you quants, Baylor has rolled the competition lately but not against the Cowboys, in fact, they’re 1-6 ATS against them their last 7 and 2-17 in their last 19 games vs. Ok. State straight up. Ok State is 6-0 their last six and a two-touchdown average margin of victory at home when you throw out the cupcakes. They’ll stay in this one and maybe even win it on the field. That’s the chowda’ I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines after a bad beat on Saturday

Yo, this is Nicky and that could have possibly been the worst beat I’ve ever taken yesterday. First Georgia makes the amazing 4th quarter comeback and not only get into cover territory but take the lead on the field, only to give up a “David Tyree” on a 4th an 18 that goes for the winning score. Ouch. So, let’s mark that one in the book among the all-time worst and move on to Sunday. In the early games I like the Baltimore Ravens +3.5 (buy the hook) against the Chicago Bears. This isn’t a Cutler bet this is a play based on how close the Ravens have been playing their games. The Ravens haven’t lost a game by more than 3 points since opening day to the Broncos. Moreover the Ravens had played between 7 points both ways in every game other than two so I expect this one to be played close to sea level the whole game. That’s the early morning chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, November 16, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines on the first of the elimination weekends in college football

Yo this is Nicky and we’ve been licking our wounds after a sub-.500 weekend last week, and we also dropped out of the top 25 on Showtime’s “Beat the Insiders” after a brutal 6-8 week so now we’ve got some work to do so let’s get to it. On Saturday I like Georgia (+3.5) against Auburn. I know road teams in the SEC are normally a bad bet but I love that the Dawgs have some of their critical IR list coming back expect them to not only cover but win this one on the field. I know Auburn’s strength is on the ground and Georgia is 55th in the nation against the run but one could argue that Auburn’s passing attack is almost non-existent and the Dawg secondary is in the top 20 against the pass so they can afford to send one or two up in the trenches to help stop the run. I think this will be tight so take the Dawgs and the lumber. That’s the early morning chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines in the NFL

Yo, this is Nicky and we couldn’t have called the Pittsburgh/New England game any worse than we did going with the Under. Brady had his breakout game of the year throwing for 3 or 4 touchdowns and the Pats offense finally looked like the Pats offense, my bad. We’re still just under 70% for the season ATS and 74% Straight up. We’re still in the top ten (#7) on Showtime’s “Beat the Insiders” and hope to climb up that ladder this weekend so follow me there as well. I’ve read your comments and tweets and understand that sometimes you need a little more lead time, so going forward we’ll post the daily picks 1 hour before game time on Sunday (Noon EST) and Saturdays at 11am EST so you’ll know when to look for it. Ok, there is some value on the table on Sunday so let’s get to it. In the early games on Sunday I like the Giants (-7 buy the hook) to beat the Raiders at home. The Giants are hitting their typical late season surge after everyone leaves them for dead, very similar to their Super Bowl runs of the last decade. Fortunately for them the NFC East is a total mess where 7-9 might win you the division (pardon the hyperbole) but that may not bee too far off so they’ll still be playing with some passion as one more loss and then they’ll need to run the table. They’re coming off their bye week and they should handle the Raiders on the field. Oakland is 0-5 their last five road games and the GMen are 7-3 their last ten at home. That’s the early morning chowda’ I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, November 3, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines on the back nine of the NFL Season

Yo, This is Nicky and we got back in the win column in college football on Saturday as Michigan State was a solid choice to take the Paul Bunyan trophy and cover less than a touchdown so let’s keep the momentum going on Sunday in the NFL. On Sunday I like the Under (44) in the Patriots and Steelers. The Pats still have issues offensively even with Gronk coming back as Brady still lacks targets to throw to that can actually catch the ball, and he’s still having problems finding the end zone through the air not throwing a td pas in 2 of his last 4 games. On the other side of the ball the injuries on the defensive side of the ball for New England does have the potential for big points but Pittsburgh only rushes for 68 yards a game so it may not be that big of a factor. The Pats only average 22 and the Steelers 17 per game and that may be less if the weather is bad. That’s the Sunday chowder, I’m Nicky, check me out on Showtime’s “Beat the Insiders” as we’re ranked 5th out of 39,700 players. That’s the Sunday Chowda’ I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, November 2, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines on a College football Saturday

Yo, this is Nicky and we’re coming off another NFL win as the Saints easily handled Buffalo after a bad first half to get our cover. Our NFL game has been on point, so much so that we’re now ranked #5 out of 39,457 players on Showtime’s “Beat the Insiders” so follow me there as well, but this is about college so let’s get to it. We’ve had some problems in the collegiate ranks lately, playing just above .500 so we’ve had to evaluate how we’re viewing the numbers but I think I still see some value on the board. In the afternoon games I like Michigan State (-4) to beat Michigan in another rivalry game. Michigan has been surviving this season and mostly because they were at home but they go on the road to a hostile place against a school that doesn’t feel like they’re getting the love they deserve and this will be their statement game. Michigan may be 6-1 their last 7 but their 5-13-1 ATS so they ain’t winning pretty and 4 seems like a small number to cover at home for a team that is 4-1-1 ATS their last six games like the Spartans. That’s the Saturday chowda’ I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your glove’s up! College Football Trend Report MICHIGAN (6 - 1) at MICHIGAN ST (7 - 1) - 11/2/2013, 3:30 PM Top Trends for this game. MICHIGAN ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons. MICHIGAN ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons. MICHIGAN ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 2 seasons. MICHIGAN ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. Head-to-Head Series History MICHIGAN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons MICHIGAN ST is 1-1 straight up against MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons 2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.