Thursday, October 3, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines Early in the Football Week

Yo, This is Nicky and we’re ready to start the weekend early as we’re getting to the action on Thursday night as we some good value on the board so let’s get to it. We went 2-0 in the NFL last week as the SuperChargers didn’t need the 2 points at home and beat Dallas on the field. We actually had an easier time with the Saints covering the 7-point line at home so we’re riding a solid streak and back in business on Thursday night. Starting in college football, as we split last weekend after A & M couldn’t hold down the two touchdown lead, I like the #UCLA Bruins (-6.5 buy the hook) to beat the Utah Utes on the road. The Bruins are coming off a very emotional win over Nebraska where they played one of the best halves of football that school has seen since they lead USC 24-0 last year. They’ve had an extra week to prepare and let their emotions settle. They’re more talented and averaging 52 points per game ( I know New Mexico State bumped that up) but they’re well coached and 8-3 over their last 11. UCLA’s soring is ranked 3rd vs. Utah’s defense which is ranked 59th, that’s spells a cover to me. UCLA BRUINS UTAH UTES 3-0 October 3, 10:00 PM | Turf of Rice-Eccles Stadium 3-1 RECENT FORM TEAM SU ATS OU OFF DEF UCLA 3-0 3-0 2-1 52.67 18.00 UTAH 3-1 3-1 3-1 42.00 24.25 SMART CHART UCLA TEAM UTAH 52.7 PTS FOR 42.0 18.0 PTS AGNST 24.3 34.7 DIFF. 17.8 330.0 PASS YDS 286.0 284.3 RUSH YDS 218.8 177.0 PASS D 288.3 162.0 RUSH D 118.3 0.7 TO DIFF 0.0 INJURIES UCLA PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE Out For Season (hip) UTAH PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION No Injuries to report. BETTING TRENDS UCLA UCLA is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games The total has gone OVER in 8 of UCLA's last 10 games UCLA is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road UCLA is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road The total has gone OVER in 4 of UCLA's last 5 games on the road UTAH Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games Utah is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games at home HEAD TO HEAD SUMMARY TEAM SU ATS OU PTS RYDS YPR PA PC% PYDS TOTY TO UCLA 2-2 1-3 1-3 16.0 127.5 3.1 29.8 60.5 234.3 361.8 2.0 Utah 2-2 3-1 1-3 24.8 133.3 4.2 28.8 54.8 187.5 320.8 1.5 HEAD TO HEAD DETAIL DATE DAY AWAY PTS HOME PTS T/G HOMELINE ATS RY PY TY TO RY PY TY TO 10/13/2012 Sat UTAH 14 UCLA 21 G -9½/51½ UTAH/U 75 244 319 1 171 183 354 1 11/12/2011 Sat UCLA 6 UTAH 31 T -6½/45½ UTAH/U 149 146 295 2 224 67 291 1 09/15/2007 Sat UCLA 6 UTAH 44 T 15/44 UTAH/O 83 290 373 5 122 264 386 1 09/02/2006 Sat UTAH 10 UCLA 31 G -3/53 UCLA/U 112 175 287 3 107 318 425 0 TEAMS LAST 5 GAMES UCLA DATE DAY OPPONENT SCORE SU LINE ATS ORY OPY OTY DRY DPY DTY TO +/- 09/21/2013 Sat NMEXST 59-13 W -44.0/66.5 W/O 298 394 692 187 146 333 -1 09/14/2013 Sat at NEBR 41-21 W 1.0/70.5 W/U 210 294 504 128 203 331 0 08/31/2013 Sat NEVADA 58-20 W -20.5/67.5 W/O 345 302 647 171 182 353 -1 12/27/2012 Thu BAYLOR 26-49 L -3.0/81.5 L/U 33 329 362 306 188 494 3 11/30/2012 Fri at STANFO 24-27 L 9.5/47.0 W/O 284 177 461 170 155 325 -1 UTAH DATE DAY OPPONENT SCORE SU LINE ATS ORY OPY OTY DRY DPY DTY TO +/- 09/21/2013 Sat at BYU 20-13 W 7.0/60.5 W/U 129 273 402 183 260 443 1 09/14/2013 Sat OREGST 48-51 L -3.5/54.0 L/O 260 279 539 48 443 491 -3 09/07/2013 Sat WEBER 70-7 W -27.5/48.5 W/O 338 290 628 69 136 205 2 08/29/2013 Thu UTAHST 30-26 W -1.0/52.5 W/O 148 302 450 173 314 487 0 11/23/2012 Fri at COLO 42-35 W -23.5/50.5 L/O 208 128 336 112 306 418 4 SUPERGRID RANK RANK UCLA's Overall Scoring vs Utah's Overall Defense 52.67 3 24.25 59 UCLA's Road Passing vs Utah's Home Defense 294.00 30 297.67 114 UCLA's Road Rushing vs Utah's Home Defense 210.00 28 96.67 26 Utah's Overall Scoring vs UCLA's Overall Defense 42.00 19 18.00 29 Utah's Home Passing vs UCLA's Road Passing Defense 290.33 34 203.00 41 Utah's Home Rushing vs UCLA's Road Rushing Defense 248.67 34 128.00 34 NFL on Thursday Night Moving to the NFL on Thursday night where we often shy away, there is some good value that looks so good it will either be a huge bear trap or our easiest cover of the weekend. I like the Over (40.5) in the Browns/Bills matchup as the Bills have been averaging 22 points per game thus far this season (just over half their share) but where the hidden value is could be Browns as they may only be averaging 16 (putting the simple average at 38 so under) but the first two games we largely responsible for that as they only scored 16 total. Since then they’ve averaged 24 points per game and have actually had the offense clicking. This is a winnable game for the Browns and don’t rule out overtime. An excellent teaser opportunity to take this game way down to 34 if you want to pair it with the Bruins. That’s the Thursday chowda’, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Teams Line PF/PA SU ATS O/U/P RY PY TY RY PY TY 0: BUFFALO 0: CLEVELAND OFF OFF 22.0 / 23.2 16.0 / 17.5 2-2 2-2 3-1-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 1-3-0 152.0 76.0 198.0 247.8 350.0 323.8 122.2 79.0 277.0 212.5 399.2 291.5 Power Rating Line The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated. Power Rating Estimate Edge BUFFALO CLEVELAND -4 Team Trends and Angles All team trends listed below apply to the current game. BUFFALO - Recent ATS Trends Against the spread Over/Under Straight Up Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992 Description W-L W-L W-L O-U O-U O-U W-L W-L W-L in games where the line is +3 to -3 0-1 6-9 61-63 1-0 8-8 51-81 0-1 6-10 63-70 in all games 3-1 16-19 171-168 2-2 21-15 173-177 2-2 14-22 167-185 in all lined games 3-1 16-19 171-168 2-2 21-15 173-177 2-2 14-22 167-185 as an underdog 3-1 10-13 91-92 2-2 16-8 90-99 2-2 7-17 59-131 as a road underdog of 3 points or less 0-1 0-4 11-21 1-0 3-2 13-22 0-1 0-5 10-25 in road games 0-1 5-11 82-86 1-0 10-7 84-89 0-1 3-14 67-107 in road lined games 0-1 5-11 82-86 1-0 10-7 84-89 0-1 3-14 67-107 in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points 0-1 1-3 30-26 1-0 4-0 29-27 0-1 1-3 22-35 in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points 0-1 3-4 109-99 1-0 6-1 108-108 0-1 4-3 112-105 against conference opponents 2-1 12-15 125-133 1-2 15-12 127-136 1-2 10-17 120-145 when playing on a Thursday 0-0 1-0 2-2 0-0 0-1 1-3 0-0 1-0 2-2 when playing with 6 or less days rest 2-1 13-15 133-136 2-1 18-11 142-139 2-1 12-17 134-147 against AFC North division opponents 1-0 2-1 22-22 0-1 1-2 20-25 1-0 2-1 24-21 in games played on a grass field 0-0 3-5 55-51 0-0 4-5 46-63 0-0 2-7 41-69 in October games 0-0 3-3 40-41 0-0 5-2 41-42 0-0 3-4 42-42 in weeks 5 through 9 0-0 3-4 43-43 0-0 4-4 39-50 0-0 3-5 46-44 CLEVELAND - Recent ATS Trends Against the spread Over/Under Straight Up Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992 Description W-L W-L W-L O-U O-U O-U W-L W-L W-L in games where the line is +3 to -3 0-1 5-7 46-49 0-1 4-10 37-63 0-1 8-6 46-55 in all games 2-2 16-17 141-144 1-3 11-24 130-157 2-2 11-25 106-189 in all lined games 2-2 16-17 141-144 1-3 11-24 130-157 2-2 11-25 106-189 as a favorite 0-1 3-6 44-38 0-1 4-7 39-44 0-1 6-5 50-34 as a home favorite of 3 points or less 0-1 1-4 15-17 0-1 1-5 8-25 0-1 3-3 17-16 in home games 1-1 8-9 71-71 0-2 5-13 62-82 1-1 8-10 60-87 in home lined games 1-1 8-9 71-71 0-2 5-13 62-82 1-1 8-10 60-87 in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points 0-1 2-3 13-16 0-1 2-4 12-17 0-1 4-2 12-18 in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points 1-1 9-9 78-87 1-1 8-12 76-91 1-1 8-13 55-118 against conference opponents 1-2 12-13 107-111 0-3 8-19 104-115 1-2 9-18 79-146 when playing on a Thursday 0-0 2-0 4-2 0-0 0-2 2-4 0-0 0-2 2-4 when playing with 6 or less days rest 2-1 12-13 118-115 1-2 9-19 105-130 2-1 11-17 88-152 against AFC East division opponents 0-1 0-3 17-18 0-1 0-3 15-22 0-1 1-2 17-20 off a division game 1-0 6-4 60-50 1-0 3-7 57-52 1-0 3-8 44-68 in games played on a grass field 1-1 10-14 111-113 0-2 6-20 107-120 1-1 9-17 86-147 in October games 0-0 2-5 35-31 0-0 3-5 35-32 0-0 3-5 31-38 off a win against a division rival 0-0 0-1 18-17 0-0 0-2 20-15 0-0 1-1 17-19 after 2 or more consecutive wins 0-0 1-2 15-20 0-0 2-1 20-12 0-0 1-2 11-24 in weeks 5 through 9 0-0 2-6 35-38 0-0 2-7 38-36 0-0 3-6 30-46

No comments:

12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.