Sunday, October 27, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines as the NFL Reaches the Midway Point

Yo, this is Nicky and we got “backdoored” by Ducks with just over two minutes left to take our money away on Saturday so we’re 0-1 going into the NFL but that’s where we’ve made a living the last three weeks so let’s get to it. On Sunday morning I like the Saints -10 to beat the Bills in the dome. New Orleans is coming off a loss against the Pats in a game they had well in hand and on top of that have had to sit on that loss for over a week with their bye week. I look for them to take out their frustrations on another AFC East team this weekend and the Bills are just in the wrong place at the wrong time. Buffalo is 1-4 ATS on the road and 1-6 straight up I only hope the Saints don’t take the foot off the gas too early and rest starters and give up a late touchdown to make this less of a blowout but after letting Tom Terrific come down the field with not time outs and beat them in the final seconds, I doubt it. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! BETTING TRENDS BUFFALO The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road Buffalo is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing New Orleans NEW ORLEANS The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Buffalo New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo View All of Nicky's Picks Here

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines on A College Saturday

Yo this is Nicky and thanks to the GMEN coming out of their shell and covering easily we managed to finish the week 2-1 after dropping the first game on Saturday. The only games we’ve lost have been in the college ranks so we’re going to have to keep our eyes up as the collegiate ranks are starting to get a bit unpredictable, but that separates the playaz from the pretenders so let’s get to it. On Saturday afternoon we’re either going to be spot on or go o-fer based on our perception of how big home field advantage will be, but I like UCLA +24.5 to go into Eugene and play the Ducks tough. Actually, we don’t even need them to play them tough just don’t get blown back to LA and I don’t think they will. They may have had a dose of reality against Stanford where their high powered offense that was top 5 in the county got all but shut down, but I think Mora will learn a lesson and have them ready to make some adjustments. Don’t forget UCLA still averages 38 points a game themselves and should be able to score enough to keep this one close in the 4th let alone getting beat by 4 touchdowns. Oregon is 1-3-1 ATS at home against the Bruins and we look for that trend to continue. That’s the early morning bowl of chowda’ we’ll be back with more later on. Stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! UCLA BRUINS OREGON DUCKS 5-1 October 26, 7:00 PM | Turf of Autzen Stadium 7-0 RECENT FORM TEAM SU ATS OU OFF DEF UCLA 5-1 5-1 2-4 39.83 19.17 OREG 7-0 6-1 5-2 57.57 17.29 SMART CHART UCLA TEAM OREG 39.8 PTS FOR 57.6 19.2 PTS AGNST 17.3 20.7 DIFF. 40.3 301.7 PASS YDS 310.7 198.5 RUSH YDS 332.4 210.2 PASS D 251.9 147.0 RUSH D 118.3 -0.5 TO DIFF -1.9 INJURIES UCLA PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION Jordon James RB Doubtful October 26 (ankle) Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE Out For Season (hip) Torian White T Out For Season (ankle) OREGON PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION Colt Lyerla TE Out For Season (personal) BETTING TRENDS UCLA UCLA is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UCLA's last 5 games UCLA is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road UCLA is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road UCLA is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oregon The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UCLA's last 6 games when playing Oregon UCLA is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oregon OREGON Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon's last 7 games Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home Oregon is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing UCLA Oregon is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing UCLA The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon's last 6 games when playing UCLA Oregon is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against UCLA Oregon is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against UCLA

Monday, October 21, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines on Monday Night

You this is Nicky and we’re trying to finish the weekend above .500 as we missed badly on Clemson as they wouldn’t have been able to cover a Super Teaser on Saturday after getting worked at home, but the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets were only out of the cover for a short while and ended up winning on the field on Sunday so we went 1-1. We’ve worked our way up to #16 out of 38,781 on Showtime’s Beat the Insiders (amazing the kind of training picking against the spread can do for you!), so make sure you’re following me on twitter to get those as well. Anyway let’s get to it on a Monday Night. I think the GMEN are going to get their first victory of the season tonight (-3.5 buy the hook if you don’t get it) at home against the Vikings. There isn’t going to be much to look forward to for the Giants this season and being highlighted on Monday Night Football may be the high point of their season. This may be a battle of futality as the Vikings are 1-5 their last six and the Giants are 0-5, but Josh Freeman just is not acclimated enough to this offense to put together a win. I would have liked it batter at 2.5 but I certainly wouldn’t go the other way and take the points which makes me feel pretty good. That’s the Monday Night Chowda’ I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 19, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines In A Top Five Matchup

Yo, this is Nicky back if the fray on Saturday afternoon as the games are getting tougher to pick, as I look at the board today most of these games can still go either way so you’re sweating these out. However we’re going get in the octagon at 5pm on the game everyone will be watching and I’m going to take Clemson and the 5 at home to upset Florida State. This is a 3 v 5 matchup with the 5 going on the road to a very tough place to play. I know Florida State has the stats in their favor leading in almost every statistical category but there’s a couple of aberration games that if you throw those stats out, this is a much closer matchup. Clemson could win this one on the field and in a tough game like this one, giving up more than a field goal seems like way too much. That’s the evening chowda’ I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines in the NFL in week 6

Yo, this is Nicky and what can I say we hit our play again yesterday calling the upset of Stanford by taking Utah plus the points. That’s five in a row and I see some value again on Sunday so let’s get to it. There are some good games in the morning but we normally pick the best on the board and go with it, that said, I’ll wait until the late games and go with the Saints (+1) on the road, going into the Razor to take on the Pats. I think people are looking at the records 5-0 and 4-1 or the names on the helmets and basing the line on that. However, smoke and mirrors removed, the Patriots offense is the worse it’s been in years, cleverly disguised by wins over sub-par teams as Atlanta make poignantly clear with a home loss to the Jets in prime time, the one Patriot statement road win. Even if Gronk plays, he won’t be 100% and will take a while to get back into the flow. Danny Amendola has not come close to putting up Welker numbers or being a big a part of the overall offense. Tom Brady finally had his consecutive games with a touchdown pass streak broken last week, and not by some storied secondary with hall of famers, no it was the Cincinnati Bengals whom have give up over 250 yards per game through the air. The Pats Rookie receivers may come around but it ain’t gonna’ be this week and I don’t know how the pats are going to score enough to hang with the Saints. That’s the Sunday chowda’ I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 12, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines on an Upset Filled Saturday

Yo, this is Nicky, and after hitting the over on the Titans game on Sunday we’ve won four straight so if your book hasn’t cut you off let’s take some more food off his table. I’ve been sitting and watching this Saturday and there has been some tough sledding and I’m glad I’ve been watching from the sidelines as that Red River shootout took me totally by surprise, but I must say Missouri did not. I think the evening games will have similar results so eyes up as you’re treading through the jungle. That said I like Utah {+9} at home to keep it close against Stanford. I know they’re coming off a tough loss against UCLA but they match up well defensively against the Cardinal and they have a shot of winning this one on the field. The weather will be bad and that may play to the strength of the UTEs. That’s the Saturday bowl of chowda’ back with more in a full day on Sunday. Stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up! STANFORD CARDINAL UTAH UTES 5-0 October 12, 6:00 PM | Turf of Rice-Eccles Stadium 3-2 RECENT FORM TEAM SU ATS OU OFF DEF STANFO 5-0 2-3 4-1 39.20 21.20 UTAH 3-2 3-2 3-2 39.00 26.20 SMART CHART STANFO TEAM UTAH 39.2 PTS FOR 39.0 21.2 PTS AGNST 26.2 18.0 DIFF. 12.8 197.0 PASS YDS 286.4 211.4 RUSH YDS 194.8 260.8 PASS D 274.2 111.8 RUSH D 131.8 -0.2 TO DIFF 0.8 INJURIES STANFORD PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION Henry Anderson DL Out Indefinitely (leg) UTAH PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION No Injuries to report. BETTING TRENDS STANFORD Stanford is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games The total has gone OVER in 4 of Stanford's last 5 games Stanford is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road UTAH Utah is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games The total has gone OVER in 7 of Utah's last 10 games Utah is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 8 games at home

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Behind Enemy lines on Sunday Week 5

Yo, this is Nicky and we’re just cookin’ like Betty Crocker this week as we’re 3-0 after hitting the over on the Browns/Bills and UCLA 6.5 on Thursday, Florida -13 on Saturday. Let’s keep the mo’ going into Sunday as there is some really good value on the board and it’s another total game. I like the over 38.5 in the Chiefs/Titans game. KC is averaging 25 points per game and the Titans about the same at 24.5. I know it seems like a bear trap but the oddsmakers are thinking too much on this one. That's the Sunday Chowda' I'm Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 5, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines on Saturday Afternoon in the SEC

You this is Nicky and we hit our first two games of the weekend on Thursday as the Bruins managed to hang on and not only win but cover the 6.5 and in the NFL the Browns and Bills went over for fun as we almost had the cover at half-time so one duress game and one cake walk, at least we knew we were at least breaking even going into the 2nd half. On Saturday afternoon I like the Florida Gators (-12.5 buy the hook) to beat up on a bad team by SEC standards the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Gator defense is only allowing 12.8 points per game and in the Swamp on a Saturday Night it may not be that much. Arkansas has had their trouble with the speed of the Gators in the past going 1-7 ATS over their last eight games spanning over a decade. The Razorbacks are also 1-9 ATS their last 10 so they’ve struggled against pretty much everyone on the road regardless of conference. That’s the Saturday afternoon chaowda’, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Behind Enemy Lines Early in the Football Week

Yo, This is Nicky and we’re ready to start the weekend early as we’re getting to the action on Thursday night as we some good value on the board so let’s get to it. We went 2-0 in the NFL last week as the SuperChargers didn’t need the 2 points at home and beat Dallas on the field. We actually had an easier time with the Saints covering the 7-point line at home so we’re riding a solid streak and back in business on Thursday night. Starting in college football, as we split last weekend after A & M couldn’t hold down the two touchdown lead, I like the #UCLA Bruins (-6.5 buy the hook) to beat the Utah Utes on the road. The Bruins are coming off a very emotional win over Nebraska where they played one of the best halves of football that school has seen since they lead USC 24-0 last year. They’ve had an extra week to prepare and let their emotions settle. They’re more talented and averaging 52 points per game ( I know New Mexico State bumped that up) but they’re well coached and 8-3 over their last 11. UCLA’s soring is ranked 3rd vs. Utah’s defense which is ranked 59th, that’s spells a cover to me. UCLA BRUINS UTAH UTES 3-0 October 3, 10:00 PM | Turf of Rice-Eccles Stadium 3-1 RECENT FORM TEAM SU ATS OU OFF DEF UCLA 3-0 3-0 2-1 52.67 18.00 UTAH 3-1 3-1 3-1 42.00 24.25 SMART CHART UCLA TEAM UTAH 52.7 PTS FOR 42.0 18.0 PTS AGNST 24.3 34.7 DIFF. 17.8 330.0 PASS YDS 286.0 284.3 RUSH YDS 218.8 177.0 PASS D 288.3 162.0 RUSH D 118.3 0.7 TO DIFF 0.0 INJURIES UCLA PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE Out For Season (hip) UTAH PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION No Injuries to report. BETTING TRENDS UCLA UCLA is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games The total has gone OVER in 8 of UCLA's last 10 games UCLA is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road UCLA is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road The total has gone OVER in 4 of UCLA's last 5 games on the road UTAH Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games Utah is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games at home HEAD TO HEAD SUMMARY TEAM SU ATS OU PTS RYDS YPR PA PC% PYDS TOTY TO UCLA 2-2 1-3 1-3 16.0 127.5 3.1 29.8 60.5 234.3 361.8 2.0 Utah 2-2 3-1 1-3 24.8 133.3 4.2 28.8 54.8 187.5 320.8 1.5 HEAD TO HEAD DETAIL DATE DAY AWAY PTS HOME PTS T/G HOMELINE ATS RY PY TY TO RY PY TY TO 10/13/2012 Sat UTAH 14 UCLA 21 G -9½/51½ UTAH/U 75 244 319 1 171 183 354 1 11/12/2011 Sat UCLA 6 UTAH 31 T -6½/45½ UTAH/U 149 146 295 2 224 67 291 1 09/15/2007 Sat UCLA 6 UTAH 44 T 15/44 UTAH/O 83 290 373 5 122 264 386 1 09/02/2006 Sat UTAH 10 UCLA 31 G -3/53 UCLA/U 112 175 287 3 107 318 425 0 TEAMS LAST 5 GAMES UCLA DATE DAY OPPONENT SCORE SU LINE ATS ORY OPY OTY DRY DPY DTY TO +/- 09/21/2013 Sat NMEXST 59-13 W -44.0/66.5 W/O 298 394 692 187 146 333 -1 09/14/2013 Sat at NEBR 41-21 W 1.0/70.5 W/U 210 294 504 128 203 331 0 08/31/2013 Sat NEVADA 58-20 W -20.5/67.5 W/O 345 302 647 171 182 353 -1 12/27/2012 Thu BAYLOR 26-49 L -3.0/81.5 L/U 33 329 362 306 188 494 3 11/30/2012 Fri at STANFO 24-27 L 9.5/47.0 W/O 284 177 461 170 155 325 -1 UTAH DATE DAY OPPONENT SCORE SU LINE ATS ORY OPY OTY DRY DPY DTY TO +/- 09/21/2013 Sat at BYU 20-13 W 7.0/60.5 W/U 129 273 402 183 260 443 1 09/14/2013 Sat OREGST 48-51 L -3.5/54.0 L/O 260 279 539 48 443 491 -3 09/07/2013 Sat WEBER 70-7 W -27.5/48.5 W/O 338 290 628 69 136 205 2 08/29/2013 Thu UTAHST 30-26 W -1.0/52.5 W/O 148 302 450 173 314 487 0 11/23/2012 Fri at COLO 42-35 W -23.5/50.5 L/O 208 128 336 112 306 418 4 SUPERGRID RANK RANK UCLA's Overall Scoring vs Utah's Overall Defense 52.67 3 24.25 59 UCLA's Road Passing vs Utah's Home Defense 294.00 30 297.67 114 UCLA's Road Rushing vs Utah's Home Defense 210.00 28 96.67 26 Utah's Overall Scoring vs UCLA's Overall Defense 42.00 19 18.00 29 Utah's Home Passing vs UCLA's Road Passing Defense 290.33 34 203.00 41 Utah's Home Rushing vs UCLA's Road Rushing Defense 248.67 34 128.00 34 NFL on Thursday Night Moving to the NFL on Thursday night where we often shy away, there is some good value that looks so good it will either be a huge bear trap or our easiest cover of the weekend. I like the Over (40.5) in the Browns/Bills matchup as the Bills have been averaging 22 points per game thus far this season (just over half their share) but where the hidden value is could be Browns as they may only be averaging 16 (putting the simple average at 38 so under) but the first two games we largely responsible for that as they only scored 16 total. Since then they’ve averaged 24 points per game and have actually had the offense clicking. This is a winnable game for the Browns and don’t rule out overtime. An excellent teaser opportunity to take this game way down to 34 if you want to pair it with the Bruins. That’s the Thursday chowda’, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Teams Line PF/PA SU ATS O/U/P RY PY TY RY PY TY 0: BUFFALO 0: CLEVELAND OFF OFF 22.0 / 23.2 16.0 / 17.5 2-2 2-2 3-1-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 1-3-0 152.0 76.0 198.0 247.8 350.0 323.8 122.2 79.0 277.0 212.5 399.2 291.5 Power Rating Line The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated. Power Rating Estimate Edge BUFFALO CLEVELAND -4 Team Trends and Angles All team trends listed below apply to the current game. BUFFALO - Recent ATS Trends Against the spread Over/Under Straight Up Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992 Description W-L W-L W-L O-U O-U O-U W-L W-L W-L in games where the line is +3 to -3 0-1 6-9 61-63 1-0 8-8 51-81 0-1 6-10 63-70 in all games 3-1 16-19 171-168 2-2 21-15 173-177 2-2 14-22 167-185 in all lined games 3-1 16-19 171-168 2-2 21-15 173-177 2-2 14-22 167-185 as an underdog 3-1 10-13 91-92 2-2 16-8 90-99 2-2 7-17 59-131 as a road underdog of 3 points or less 0-1 0-4 11-21 1-0 3-2 13-22 0-1 0-5 10-25 in road games 0-1 5-11 82-86 1-0 10-7 84-89 0-1 3-14 67-107 in road lined games 0-1 5-11 82-86 1-0 10-7 84-89 0-1 3-14 67-107 in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points 0-1 1-3 30-26 1-0 4-0 29-27 0-1 1-3 22-35 in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points 0-1 3-4 109-99 1-0 6-1 108-108 0-1 4-3 112-105 against conference opponents 2-1 12-15 125-133 1-2 15-12 127-136 1-2 10-17 120-145 when playing on a Thursday 0-0 1-0 2-2 0-0 0-1 1-3 0-0 1-0 2-2 when playing with 6 or less days rest 2-1 13-15 133-136 2-1 18-11 142-139 2-1 12-17 134-147 against AFC North division opponents 1-0 2-1 22-22 0-1 1-2 20-25 1-0 2-1 24-21 in games played on a grass field 0-0 3-5 55-51 0-0 4-5 46-63 0-0 2-7 41-69 in October games 0-0 3-3 40-41 0-0 5-2 41-42 0-0 3-4 42-42 in weeks 5 through 9 0-0 3-4 43-43 0-0 4-4 39-50 0-0 3-5 46-44 CLEVELAND - Recent ATS Trends Against the spread Over/Under Straight Up Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992 Description W-L W-L W-L O-U O-U O-U W-L W-L W-L in games where the line is +3 to -3 0-1 5-7 46-49 0-1 4-10 37-63 0-1 8-6 46-55 in all games 2-2 16-17 141-144 1-3 11-24 130-157 2-2 11-25 106-189 in all lined games 2-2 16-17 141-144 1-3 11-24 130-157 2-2 11-25 106-189 as a favorite 0-1 3-6 44-38 0-1 4-7 39-44 0-1 6-5 50-34 as a home favorite of 3 points or less 0-1 1-4 15-17 0-1 1-5 8-25 0-1 3-3 17-16 in home games 1-1 8-9 71-71 0-2 5-13 62-82 1-1 8-10 60-87 in home lined games 1-1 8-9 71-71 0-2 5-13 62-82 1-1 8-10 60-87 in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points 0-1 2-3 13-16 0-1 2-4 12-17 0-1 4-2 12-18 in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points 1-1 9-9 78-87 1-1 8-12 76-91 1-1 8-13 55-118 against conference opponents 1-2 12-13 107-111 0-3 8-19 104-115 1-2 9-18 79-146 when playing on a Thursday 0-0 2-0 4-2 0-0 0-2 2-4 0-0 0-2 2-4 when playing with 6 or less days rest 2-1 12-13 118-115 1-2 9-19 105-130 2-1 11-17 88-152 against AFC East division opponents 0-1 0-3 17-18 0-1 0-3 15-22 0-1 1-2 17-20 off a division game 1-0 6-4 60-50 1-0 3-7 57-52 1-0 3-8 44-68 in games played on a grass field 1-1 10-14 111-113 0-2 6-20 107-120 1-1 9-17 86-147 in October games 0-0 2-5 35-31 0-0 3-5 35-32 0-0 3-5 31-38 off a win against a division rival 0-0 0-1 18-17 0-0 0-2 20-15 0-0 1-1 17-19 after 2 or more consecutive wins 0-0 1-2 15-20 0-0 2-1 20-12 0-0 1-2 11-24 in weeks 5 through 9 0-0 2-6 35-38 0-0 2-7 38-36 0-0 3-6 30-46
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.