Saturday, September 28, 2013

Yo, this is Nicky and we haven’t been the book maker’s friend so far this year after going 3-0 last weekend, including 2-0 in our first two college games of the year. This week has some serious bear traps so let’s keep our eyes up and get to it. On Saturday amidst the plethora of games I do see some value lurking and it’s not really in the marquis games. In the afternoon I like Texas A & M (-14 buy the hook) to beat up on a Arkansas team that is not as good as their record would suggest. I know that’s a ton of points to lay on the road in the SEC and one game does not a trend make, but wow they did not look good against a very average Rutgers team. They are also a horrible cover team, particularly in September when they are 0-8 ATS. Yes, they can score but with all the talk about Manziel what everyone is ignoring is a very good defense. True that, Bama’ put some serious ink on the stat sheet but if they had some big athletes getting loose and getting serious YACs, I think A & M will clean that up this week and get up by two scores then watch the turnover parade from the front row. That’s some chowder for tomorrow, I’ll be back with more later. Stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! View all of Nicky's Picks on the main site here. RECENT FORM TEAM SU ATS OU OFF DEF TEXA & M 3-1 3-1 3-1 50.25 30.25 ARK 3-1 1-3 2-2 28.25 16.50 SMART CHART TEXA&M TEAM ARK 50.3 PTS FOR 28.3 30.3 PTS AGNST 16.5 20.0 DIFF. 11.8 391.0 PASS YDS 151.5 211.3 RUSH YDS 246.0 257.0 PASS D 197.3 218.3 RUSH D 92.5 -0.8 TO DIFF -0.8 INJURIES TEXAS A&M PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION Ricky Seals-Jones WR Out For Season (knee) ARKANSAS PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION Brandon Allen QB Questionable September 28 (shoulder) Demetrius Wilson WR Out For Season (knee) BETTING TRENDS TEXAS A&M Texas A&M is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas A&M's last 6 games Texas A&M is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas A&M's last 8 games on the road ARKANSAS Arkansas is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games Arkansas is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home Arkansas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arkansas's last 6 games at home HEAD TO HEAD SUMMARY TEAM SU ATS OU PTS RYDS YPR PA PC% PYDS TOTY TO Texas A&M 1-3 1-3 2-2 33.0 206.0 5.3 45.3 57.5 325.5 531.5 2.0 Arkansas 3-1 3-1 2-2 30.8 127.0 3.7 43.8 58.9 366.0 493.0 2.0 HEAD TO HEAD DETAIL DATE DAY AWAY PTS HOME PTS T/G HOMELINE ATS RY PY TY TO RY PY TY TO 09/29/2012 Sat ARK 10 TEXA&M 58 G -13/65 TEXA&M/O 142 373 515 3 218 498 716 0 10/01/2011 Sat TEXA&M 38 ARK 42 T 2½/61 ARK/O 381 247 628 2 71 510 581 0 10/09/2010 Sat TEXA&M 17 ARK 24 T -6/62 ARK/U 112 212 324 4 132 310 442 2 10/03/2009 Sat ARK 47 TEXA&M 19 G 2/67 ARK/U 163 271 434 3 113 345 458 2 TEAMS LAST 5 GAMES TEXAS A&M DATE DAY OPPONENT SCORE SU LINE ATS ORY OPY OTY DRY DPY DTY TO +/- 09/21/2013 Sat SMU 42-13 W -27.5/80.5 W/U 265 316 581 93 341 434 2 09/14/2013 Sat ALAB 42-49 L 8.5/63.0 W/O 164 464 628 234 334 568 -1 09/07/2013 Sat SAMHOU 65-28 W -35.0/77.0 W/O 214 500 714 240 150 390 1 08/31/2013 Sat RICE 52-31 W -28.0/69.5 L/O 202 284 486 306 203 509 1 01/04/2013 Fri at OKLA 41-13 W -3.0/72.0 W/U 326 307 633 123 278 401 0 ARKANSAS DATE DAY OPPONENT SCORE SU LINE ATS ORY OPY OTY DRY DPY DTY TO +/- 09/21/2013 Sat at RUTGER 24-28 L 1.0/42.5 L/O 101 182 283 54 346 400 3 09/14/2013 Sat S.MISS 24-3 W -24.0/49.5 L/U 258 69 327 119 135 254 1 09/07/2013 Sat SAMFOR 31-21 W -32.5/48.5 L/O 333 125 458 112 119 231 -2 08/31/2013 Sat UL.LAF 34-14 W -10.0/55.0 W/U 292 230 522 85 189 274 1 11/23/2012 Fri LSU 13-20 L 11.5/52.0 W/U 103 359 462 89 217 306 -2 SUPERGRID RANK RANK Texas A&M's Overall Scoring vs Arkansas's Overall Defense 50.25 6 16.50 26 Texas A&M's Road Passing vs Arkansas's Home Defense 0.00 1 147.67 20 Texas A&M's Road Rushing vs Arkansas's Home Defense 0.00 1 105.33 40 Arkansas's Overall Scoring vs Texas A&M's Overall Defense 28.25 73 30.25 90 Arkansas's Home Passing vs Texas A&M's Road Passing Defense 141.33 117 0.00 1 Arkansas's Home Rushing vs Texas A&M's Road Rushing Defense 294.33 17 0.00 1 Yo, this is Nicky and for those of you that follow my twitter page we hit our first game of the day with Oklahoma going into South Bend and handling the Irish and easily covering the -4. We’ve got an A & M still on the table who is tied at 7 early in the game so it looks like we’re going to be watching that one for a while. In the late games I like Arizona State -4 to beat USC at home. The Sun Devils hung right with a very good Wisconsin team and it’s no secret USC is not what they’ve been in prior years. The Trojans are 0-6 ATS over the last two years on the road, and 4-13 ATS in all games over the same span. The takeaway is that they’ve been living off reputation for a while now and until the lines catch up with them I’m going to be happy to take their money. That’s the Saturday chowder, I’m Nicky, back with more tomorrow, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! BETTING TRENDS SOUTHERN CAL Southern Cal is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games Southern Cal is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Cal's last 6 games The total has gone OVER in 6 of Southern Cal's last 9 games on the road Southern Cal is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road Southern Cal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road Southern Cal is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing Arizona State The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Southern Cal's last 9 games when playing Arizona State Southern Cal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona State The total has gone OVER in 6 of Southern Cal's last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona State ARIZONA STATE Arizona State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona State's last 5 games Arizona State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona State's last 5 games at home Arizona State is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing Southern Cal The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona State's last 9 games when playing Southern Cal Arizona State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Southern Cal The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona State's last 8 games when playing at home against Southern Cal

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12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.