Saturday, October 15, 2011

Behind Enemy Lines in NCAA Football

Yo, this is Nicky and because the Lions remained unbeaten and did it in convincing fashion we were able to run our record to 8-3 on the season between college and pro. It’s a busy Saturday and there’s a lot on the board so let’s get to it. In the afternoon I actually like a couple of games today. First I like LSU (-16) to pummel Tennessee on the road. The Vols are simply a mess in the wake of Lane’s destruction and they simply don’t have the horses to stay with the Tigers who look like the best team in the Nation. Look for the Tigers to be taking no prisoners as they need to boost their BCS number as the first rankings come out tomorrow. That’s the appetizer cup o’ chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

For you quants, here are the vital stats:

LSU has won 6 straight games.
Team records:
LSU: 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS
Tennessee: 3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS
LSU most recently:
When playing in October are 8-2
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 8-2

Tennessee most recently:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
LSU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LSU is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LSU's last 7 games on the road
LSU is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 11 games at home
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Tennessee's last 17 games
Next up:
LSU home to Auburn, Saturday, October 22
Tennessee at Alabama, Saturday, October 22

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12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.