Sunday, October 30, 2011

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo this is Nicky back for more action on an NFL Sunday Night after getting whacked on Saturday. Ya know sometimes you get bit by the back door cover or a kneel down cost but I would rather have one of those because that knife usually cuts both ways and you win some and lose some. But on Saturday I simply was going the wrong way and have to go back to drawing board, check the data and make sure we get the proper read next week. That drops our record to 10-5 and we got to get it back on Sunday night when I like Philly (-3 buy the hook) to beat Dallas at home. The Eagles are coming off a bye week and know the rest of their life begins Sunday and they have a ton of work to get done if they want to make the playoffs. The good news is there is a lot of losing going on at the top of the division and they should be able to make up the ground in they can go on a winning streak which I think begins Sunday. That’s the late afternoon chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 29, 2011

Coming off a World Series win

Yo, this is Nicky and you are so welcome for the Cards (+130) in seven. I gotta admit I was sweating like a dog on several occasions during game 6 but after the Cards won that one I knew we’d be walking up to the ticket window with a smug grin on our face. Normally when you play a series you only really hope it goes the distance because there normally an excellent chance to either hedge or middle. In this case it wasn’t really worth the effort or I would have followed up. Anyway, let’s get back to the grid iron where we are 10-4 this season and coming off a loss because of the Chargers lack of ability to close. So, with a bad taste in our mouths let get back to it. On Saturday I like Michigan State +4.5 going on the road at Nebraska. I know, they’re coming off the huge win over Wisconsin but they know that they got a shot at running the table and going BCS also the Huskers have not proven their ready for prime time in their B-10 body of work this year. That’s the Saturday chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo, this is Nicky, and we split the board yesterday as the Trojans surprised me, and a lot of other people, but going into South Bend and ruining the first evening game in years for the Irish so that dog bit us, but we also had a dog take a big bite for us as the Spartans answered the call at home and actually were never out of the cover. Lost a little vig, but that’s not what were in this for so let’s get to it! Early on Sunday I like Super Chargers (+1) going into NYC and to beat the Jets. I know the Jets are unbeaten at home but I’m still not sold on that offense and the Chargers have been playing well and hard to believe they can fly underneath the radar at 4-1. That’s the early morning chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Behind Enemy Lines in NCAA Football

Yo, this is Nicky and it’s time to pack the lunch pail. There is some real value on the board as we look to improve on our 10-3 record this season so let’s get to it. I actually like two games on Saturday where I see some real value. Not in any particular order, I like Michigan State (+7.5) yea, a serious home dog, but I think Wisconsin’s first road trip will be a rough one and like State to roll back-to-back wins or at least keep it very close. I know the Badgers have a powerful running game but the Spartans proved they can contain a good running attack last week when they shut down Robinson and the Wolverines. This will be a great game to watch and an even better game to tease.

I also like the Fighting Irish (-6.5 buy the hook) at home to finally beat USC. Notre Dame has not won a big game in a while and particularly a rivalry game but I look for that trend to change. This is not the same Trojan defense we have seen in prior years and they give up a ton of yards and even more points. A secondary that’s ranked below 100 will give up some huge plays and I like taking the home team down in this one. That’s a second helping of chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Behind Enemy Lines in the World Series

Yo, this is Nicky the Fish and as you know we normally stick to the grid iron and the hard wood but you can’t just let the Fall classic roll through town and not jump on board at least for a little bit so we’re going to go after the entire series rather than a game. I have read all of the stats and listened to the banter and I know every quant ever to grace a sports page has the Rangers in 6 or perhaps 7 (if they’re on TV and need to keep up ratings) but I’m going to look primarily at the qualitative info and take the Cards in 7 and get +130 for my efforts. Too many times I have seen the Wild Card team come into the playoffs the hottest team in baseball (IE; former defending champs San Francisco last year) and the Cards trialed the WC by over 10.5 games in August and needed all 182 games to punch the final playoff ticket. They also have home field advantage because of the “meaningless” all-star game played months ago. The Weather will also be to their favor as the Rangers will have to leave the comfortable warm weather to play in 40 degree and windy St. Louis. I also like big ballpark, that will help take away the long ball from Texas who has lived by it in the CS and LCS. Lastly, I think the DH or lack thereof, will be another factor that leads to a home field advantage as it’s another stick that comes out of the Rangers lineup. I would hit you with the quantitative data but you probably already know that. Anyway, that’s the bonus bowl of chowda, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo, this is Nicky and we’re back for more after another win yesterday as the LSU Tigers started slow but finished with more than enough juice to cover that large number for us and push us to 9-3 on the season between college and the NFL. I was leery about Sunday morning as they looked like great games to watch but touch to call and I was right so I’m glad I waited for the skies to clear. In the late games I like the Bears (-2.5) to play well on Sunday night and beat the Vikings. Soldier Field will be rockin’ and I like that Bears defense that only gives up 318 yards a game to keep McNabb in the funk that he’s in All-Day will get his but not enough to win this game and that’s basically all we need the Bears to do.

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Behind Enemy Lines in NCAA Football

Yo, this is Nicky and because the Lions remained unbeaten and did it in convincing fashion we were able to run our record to 8-3 on the season between college and pro. It’s a busy Saturday and there’s a lot on the board so let’s get to it. In the afternoon I actually like a couple of games today. First I like LSU (-16) to pummel Tennessee on the road. The Vols are simply a mess in the wake of Lane’s destruction and they simply don’t have the horses to stay with the Tigers who look like the best team in the Nation. Look for the Tigers to be taking no prisoners as they need to boost their BCS number as the first rankings come out tomorrow. That’s the appetizer cup o’ chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

For you quants, here are the vital stats:

LSU has won 6 straight games.
Team records:
LSU: 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS
Tennessee: 3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS
LSU most recently:
When playing in October are 8-2
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 8-2

Tennessee most recently:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
LSU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LSU is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LSU's last 7 games on the road
LSU is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 11 games at home
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Tennessee's last 17 games
Next up:
LSU home to Auburn, Saturday, October 22
Tennessee at Alabama, Saturday, October 22

Monday, October 10, 2011

Behind enemy lines on Monday Night

Yo, this is Nicky and we split the day in college on Saturday as the Huskers couldn’t cover the big number and wouldn’t even have gotten the win if the Buckeyes didn’t lose their quarterback. In any case it keeps us in the same place and I didn’t see any value on Sunday that would make me take a position so we were of the board. I think Monday night’s game is the quintessential teaser bet if you had something left to pair it with but you don’t look to get two units on the same game so we gotta play it straight. That said, I’m going to continue to play the percentages with the “road team on Sunday, home team on Monday” theme which has held true and play the Lions (-6.5 buy the hook) to hold serve at home and move to 5-0 for the first time since the Paper Lion. That’s the Monday chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 8, 2011

Beind enemy lines in NCAA Football

Yo, this is Nicky and that some easy pickins’ to start the day now I want to keep the momentum going so let’s get to it. In the afternoon games I love Nebraska go also cover a big number (-10) as well, in their first Big-10 game in the school’s history. I know, the Huskers got whacked in Madison last week and don’t look ready for prime time, but that happens to a lot of schools in college football. I think the Big Red will come back strong and OSU is a still a mess with suspensions. That’s the evening cup of chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves’ up!


Yo this is Nicky and we got a little full of ourselves after our good start and we’ve been brought back down to earth in our last two, after the Fish couldn’t keep the game close in SoCal. No telling that Chadwick Henne would go down but what can you do so we need to clutch up this week but I think there is some serious value on the board to help us do it. Let’s wake up early and get started as I think the Sooners are going to rip the Longhorns a new one. So much so that I’m going to lay a TON of lumber (-10.5) and play the Sooners. This line is based on reputation and on a neutral field there is NO WAY the horns can match OU. Look for the Sooners to also get some defensive scores in this game and I’m staying away from the over because I think TX will have a tough time scoring. That’s the early chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo, this is Nicky and it feels good to be back in the win column as yesterday the Wisconsin Badgers gave us a duress free afternoon, after they were down by a point, they took the lead, got the cover and allowed us to get a couple of cocktails before we headed up to the ticket window. This runs the record to 6-2 on the season between college and pro, but what have I done for you lately so let’s get to it. I see the most value in one of the afternoon games as a banged up Chargers team is going to have to win by more than a touchdown, in warm weather against a warm weather team. I like the winless Miami Dolphins (+7.5) to go into SoCal and not only cover but possibly win that game on the field. A loss drops the fish to 0-4 ahead of the bye week and sends their coach to the unemployment line. Look for them to man up and save his job. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 1, 2011

Behind Enemy Lines in NCAA Football

Yo, this is Nicky and I guess we got a little ahead of ourselves and needed to be brought down to reality and if there is any team that can make you wonder “what was I thinking??” it’s the Redskins, so we gave one unit back and now we’re 5-2 but let’s get back on the right side of the ledger. In the afternoon games I like Wisconsin (-9.5 buy the hook) to beat Nebraska. Everyone seems to shocked at the double digit number and that surprises me, because I remember when an top ranked Ohio State team rolled into Madison and go whacked. I realize these are two totally different teams but that place is a pit to go into and try to come out with a win. The Husker’s Big-10 debut could be a rough one, particularly if they can’t stop the run. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your glove’s up!
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.