Saturday, October 16, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo, this is Nicky and after sweating out a ½ point win with the Beavers yesterday we’re back on the Left Side in the NCAA, let’s see if we can repeat the feat in the NFL and get to it. There seems to be some good value on the board early and we don’t often do this but I like two games so I’m going to play them both. Firstly, I love the Ravens (3.5 buy the hook, it saved you last night) going into the Razor for a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional playoff game. The Ravens blew out the Pats in their own house and to honest with you I don’t see a whole lot that’s changed except that New England isn’t as explosive on offense. Brilliant Bill will soon learn that he can’t win with just anyone, and Welker will not be the same receiver without Moss clearing out the zones for him. The Pats D is still suspect and I look for the Ravens to test those young corners and score enough points to give their D enough cushion to take stomach some big plays.
In another early game I like the Texans (-4.5) to hold serve at home and beat the Chiefs who are beginning to be exposed for being the benefactor of a soft early schedule. The Texas are 7-2 their last 9 games and if Chambers is still out with is finger that’s one less big play the Chiefs will have. The under in this game looks interesting as well but, but KC going 7-17 their last 24 games makes me lean towards the BlackBirds. Chat’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
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Well, we seem to be going the wrong way in college so far this season and it’s been a rough one so I spent some extra time trying to get an edge and I hope it pays off so let’s get to it. I realize there are easier games to call but I like a road team in the Pac-10 Oregon State(+1 ½ buy the hook) against Oregon State. The beavers played their best game of the year last week and stunned Arizona at home and I look for them to keep the momentum going. I was looking at this from the other side, and I am normally rely on qualitative data more the quantitative but the numbers for this one are quite overwhelming. Washington is 0-5 straight up in its last 5 games, including 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oregon State. Also Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oregon State, and has lost 4 of 5 on the field. In the world of wagering those would be considered very strong trends. Ok, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

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12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.