Sunday, October 31, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo, this is Nicky and we took the gift the books gave us yesterday with Iowa only laying a touchdown at home. If they’re going to continue to present “gifts” like that, we’re going to take them. Unfortunately there is nothing that obvious on the board in the NFL , but we’ve won our last 2, so we have to work a little harder but let’s get to it. Ok, one rule I have always implemented is that I never bet on a dog I don’t think can win on the field. In the NFL you very rarely will see a spread over 2 tds and if you do that’s a big red flag to stay away. We don’t see anything like that this week but we are going to take a road dog in a strange game that you wouldn’t have been surprised if the line was the other way and that’s what I like. In a late game I like the over (41 buy the hook) between the SeaChickens and the Nasty Raiders at home. The stats don’t favor Seattle because they’re not a good cover team, and I was one step away from taking the field goal, but the number scared me off. Seattle is 0-5 straight up and ATS on the road against Oakland their last 5 games and I just can’t stand in front of that train and stop it. So more attractive is the over (41) as 7 of Seattle’s last 10 games have gone over as well 4 of the last 5 against Oakland. The Raiders themselves have gone over in four of their last five, so that’s where the strongest trend is. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Behind enemy lines in NCAA Football week 8

Yo this is Nicky and just when we had a little mo’ going in college Oklahoma state kinda took the wind out of our sails but let’s try and get it back this week. There have been a lot of schools that look great at home but get them on the road in a hostile environment and they seem to fall apart. Needless to day that has been the achilies heel of any team ranked #1, so when I see home teams laying a little lumber I’m not afraid to step in front of the train. There are two top ten teams that are going on the road and getting points (Mizzou and Mich St.) and one laying some hefty lumber (Oregon). Of those three the best choice is Iowa (-6.5 buy the hook and get under the touchdown) hosting Michigan State. For all of you quants the numbers against the Spartans going into Kinnick stadium and getting a win are staggering. Michigan State is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Iowa, including 1-4 ATS their last five on the road, 0-5 straight up but they kept it close one year. In short, they simply have no answer for the Hawkeyes in the cornfield and that’s not going to change. Lay the lumber and I’ll be back for the late games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Behind enemy lines but staying out of harms way in the NBA

Yo, this is Nicky and I normally wait a week or so to get a feel for how the teams are going to come out of the box to start a season but I see some real opportunity on opening night. Firstly, everyone and their mother will be tuned to the debut of the Heat as they take on the Celtics and I have no idea what to expect from that game so I’m just going to sit back and enjoy the action with everyone else. Because of that all of the attention will be off the Lakers, their ring ceremony, and the begining of the quest to tree-peat. Besides the fact that Kobe doesn’t like that they’re not the team to beat right now, Bynum is still not in the lineup, there new guys are still trying to learn the triangle offense, and quite frankly, LA never shows up on opening day, even last year when they got their rings it also ended with a loss. In any case, I’m taking Houston (+7.5) as their part-time center is more than the Lakers have right now so even LA surprises me I can’t see them covering such a large number. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Ok, sweating out the first game of the day right now as the Bucs are making us work for it but on the late games I’m going to take a road dog New England (+3.5 buy the hook if you got it at 3). On the stat side the Pats are 5-1 their last 6 straight up while the Chargers are 2-5-1 ATS their last 8 games. The Pats’ offense has been clikin’ since the acquisition of Branch and he’s not another week under his belt to get acclimated to the offense, but the Charger defense is best in the NFL against the pass and that is a bit of a concern. Conversely, their defense is the worst in the NFL and New England will take advantage of that for field position and in a close game that could make all the difference. What does scare me is the desperation factor as the Chargers are in a must win situation or their playoff hopes are seriously hurt even though they play in the AFC Weak. That’s the late afternoon bowl of chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Yo, I’m back riding a 2-0 NFL weekend from last week and over .675 for the year so let’s get right to it. With all of the attention on the marquis games it leaves room to make some crafty picks of your own and stay out of harm’s way. With that said, I like Tampa Bay (-2.5 buy the hook) at home to win by a field goal. The Rams are 0-5 their last five games on the road and 1-6 ATS their last 7, while the Bucs are 4-1 over their last five. That’s the early morning bowl of chowder, back with more this afternoon. Stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 23, 2010

Behind enemy lines in NCAA Football

Yo, this is Nicky and I can finally look you all in the eye again after we had our first undefeated weekend going 3-0, but we have to keep the momentum going as still under .500 in college but doing well in the NFL so let’s get to it. I love home dogs, particularly in college and when the team can score that makes it that much better as that’s when you can get some real value. I like the Oklahoma State Cowboys (+6.5 buy the hook) hosting the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I know Big Red is 6-1 their last 7 games but I question the competition they’ve played against and they are only 1-5 ATS their last 6. Take the home dog and when you speak of me, speak of me well. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo, this is Nicky and after sweating out a ½ point win with the Beavers yesterday we’re back on the Left Side in the NCAA, let’s see if we can repeat the feat in the NFL and get to it. There seems to be some good value on the board early and we don’t often do this but I like two games so I’m going to play them both. Firstly, I love the Ravens (3.5 buy the hook, it saved you last night) going into the Razor for a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional playoff game. The Ravens blew out the Pats in their own house and to honest with you I don’t see a whole lot that’s changed except that New England isn’t as explosive on offense. Brilliant Bill will soon learn that he can’t win with just anyone, and Welker will not be the same receiver without Moss clearing out the zones for him. The Pats D is still suspect and I look for the Ravens to test those young corners and score enough points to give their D enough cushion to take stomach some big plays.
In another early game I like the Texans (-4.5) to hold serve at home and beat the Chiefs who are beginning to be exposed for being the benefactor of a soft early schedule. The Texas are 7-2 their last 9 games and if Chambers is still out with is finger that’s one less big play the Chiefs will have. The under in this game looks interesting as well but, but KC going 7-17 their last 24 games makes me lean towards the BlackBirds. Chat’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
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Well, we seem to be going the wrong way in college so far this season and it’s been a rough one so I spent some extra time trying to get an edge and I hope it pays off so let’s get to it. I realize there are easier games to call but I like a road team in the Pac-10 Oregon State(+1 ½ buy the hook) against Oregon State. The beavers played their best game of the year last week and stunned Arizona at home and I look for them to keep the momentum going. I was looking at this from the other side, and I am normally rely on qualitative data more the quantitative but the numbers for this one are quite overwhelming. Washington is 0-5 straight up in its last 5 games, including 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oregon State. Also Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oregon State, and has lost 4 of 5 on the field. In the world of wagering those would be considered very strong trends. Ok, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo, this is Nicky and we’re riding some momentum in the NFL and (and that’s the only place) so we need to make up for our futility on Saturday s so let’s get to it. Injuries are starting to play a major role in way things are going to play out and without a quality QB, things ain’t gonna be fun as the defenses are in mid-season form already, and with that in mind I like the Carolina Panthers (-2.5 buy the hook) against the Bears. I know the Panthers are winless but it’s on the offense as the D is doing its job (only allowed 16 points against the defending champs last week) , and with Cutler on the sideline with an injury, that offense was anemic last week when he went down. With a week to scheme to stop the run, Carolina will win this. Don’t get me wrong I’m not sold on Claussen, but he’ll do just enough NOT to lose the game. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Behind enemy lines in NCAA Football

Yo, this is Nicky and we have been getting WHACKED in college the last four weeks including simply going the wrong way on Texas Tech last week, so we need to get back on track and we’re going back to an old well to do it. This is one of those tough Saturday’s because you either jump into the fire on a tough game that could go either way or play a top 15 laying 56 points against a cupcake. What we’re trying to do is find a good home team that isn’t laying 3 touchdowns so it still can be in a one score game in the 4th and still cover. Of the games that fit this mold we like going back to the desert with Arizona (-7.5) against Oregon State. We know after a big home win against a top 10 like Iowa there could be a let down, but being ranked in the top-10 for the first time in years will be motivation enough. OState does have some serious weapons that should produce a cheap score but it shouldn’t be enough to keep this one within 10 points. Arizona is 6-1 its last seven games and 10-2 over the last 12. I think the bear trap is those that might be taken by the stat that the Cats are 1-4 against Oregon State at home their last five games. But the rub is that that pre-dates back ten years and includes the pre-stoops era, not to mention a totally different mindset, but that’s why you’re not laying 13 points so take it and bid it. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the hunt for October

Yo, this is Nicky and now that we’ve had an opportunity to get a feel for the playoffs games it’s time get off the bench and get into the game so let’s get to it. We’ve managed to call the MLB pretty well going 12-5 our last 17 and we’re going to play the “desperation card” in this hand and look at all the clubs that HAVE to win. Among those three we think the Rays (+115) present the most value. I realize there has been much ado about their home crowd but I think will show up today. Can you imagine the club with the best record in baseball is a HOME DOG in game two of the ALDS??? Either someone knows something or there is amazing value on the board, and I’m going for the latter. No need to talk about stats because all of those go out the window come October. Case in point was the stat that the Rangers had scored all of 2 runs in their last six playoff games combined and put more than that on the board yesterday against the front runner for the AL Cy Young Award. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, October 3, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo this is Nicky back in League after a win last week (Bengals) to take us to 2-1 on the early season this week we look to get a little separation on the book so let’s get to it. In the late afternoon game I like the Giants (-3 buy the hook if you need to) to beat the Bears. This is almost a must win for the Giants in the NFC East as if they fall to 1-3 it will be quite the mountain to climb to get into a playoff spot. I know, the Bears are 5-0 in their last 5 but they’re only 3-8 ATS on the road and this will be a test to that defense. The numbers also show that the GMen are 1-5 ATS their last five so we are definitely swimming up stream but I like the Giants playing in front of that home crowd. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 2, 2010

Behind enemy lines in NCAA Football

Yo this is Nicky the Fish and although we seem to be measuring the NFL well we’ve yet to hit our stride in college so let’s try to get healthy this week. In an afternoon game I like Texas Tech (-6.5 buy the hook) going into Iowa State. At 33.7 points per game Tech has plenty of offense to win and cover the number, and the Clones don’t score enough (20 points per game) to stay with the high octane offense of the Raiders. On the quant side, Texas Tech seems to have the Cyclones number as they are 5-1 ATS against them over their last six games. Here’s the complete stat line, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.