Thursday, March 25, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines in the Sweet 16

This is Nicky and although we gave up our lead late last weekend to end up 5-5 I see some things I like on the board so this is what I got. I think the injury to Daryll Bryant will be significant and the Mounties are going to have to work if they want to advance on Thursday let alone cover the spread, and it will be too much to ask I like the Huskies (+5) to cover and possibly win on the court.
View all of the NCAA Betting Lines here.
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Saturday, March 20, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines, Tournament weekend games

This is Nicky back for more work after dropping 2 games yesterday to be at an even 5-5 for the tournament. Can you believe that last shot by Old Dominion?? They were given a layup and decided to take the pro-range 3, that cost us the cover. Well we knew the job was dangerous when we took it but let’s stay in the ring, so here’s what I got. I like Texas A&M (-3) versus Purdue, I realize many have been calling for the demise of the Boilermakers since Hummel’s injury and they got by their fist matchup but they pay the piper Sunday as they may not have the offensive firepower to keep up with A & M.

Ok, the monster answered yesterday taking 2 of the 3 from us taking us to 4-3 for the dance so we gotta get healthy today, here’s what I got.

Historically in the dance the second day of the weekend has been better to take the points because the teams don’t have the time between games to prepare that they normally do but the line makers just look at teams on their normal merits and that’s where you find the value. So what it see on Saturday is Ohio U (+9 buy the hook) against Tennessee. Rule of thumb is that you never take a dog that you don’t think can win on the court and OU can do that. I thought UT was lucky to get by on Thursday, and not playing their best ball right now.

Another game I like is Old Dominion (+6) vs. Baylor for the same reasons I mentioned before but also because of their D. Allowing less than 60 points per game should give OD a good chance to win let alone keep it within 6 points.

Lastly, I like Washingrton (-2 buy it if you have to) to beat New Mexico in what the seedings would consider an upset yet UW is layin’ points. This is a game that if it was during the regular season and you saw this line you would be all over it. Unlike some of the other schools we’ve talked about the Huskies are playing well right now and they’ve played against tough comp this year and I like them to take the Pac-10 to 3-0. That’s the Saturday chowda’, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines, Tournament Style

Hey this is Nicky “the fish” talkin’ and we flew into the eye of the storm that is the NCAA tournament and lived to tell about it going 3-1 on opening day with wins from KState, Washington, and Wake Forest but were never really in the Richmond game. Just the same, I’ll take it now we have some scratch in the game if a couple of buzzer beaters don’t go our way so let’s get to it.

I was looking at the Cornell/Temple game but thought it would be too much fun to watch have a fiscal state as well, plus I thought it was too close to call. If we learned anything from yesterday it’s that taking the points is a prudent way to go in most cases, and I see some value with Siena(+4.5), I know everyone and their mother are calling that upset but if they’re going to give money away I’m going to take it. Purdue is simply not the same club without Hummel although I would expect more points than 4.5 in a 13/4 matchup.

Another game where the ratio of points/risk is balanced is Wisconsin (-9.5) vs. Wofford. I like the Badgers size down low and think they’re going to create some major problems for Wofford making it difficult for them to score. If they get behind early look for them to start trying to get it from outside where the odds are dramatically in Wisconsin’s favor. Take the badgers. That's the chowder, I'm Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

View all of the NCAA Betting Lines here.
Yo, long time, this is “Nicky the Fish” back from a long hiatus and I’m ready to fly into the eye of the storm by trying to successfully pick the NCAA tournament but I’ve done the work and waited to see if the parity of this tournament was going to be all that, and it looks like it is. So pack plenty of heat because we’re going to war. Let’s get to it.
Ok, I’m not into laying 50 points in a 20 minute game but I love Kansas St. (-15) against North Texas. KState is a question mark to see how they will play on a neutral court but they are a consensus pick to make it to the final four and I think they’re going to come out firing on both cylinders and send a message.

Another game where I see good value is Richmond (-2) against St. Marys. I know they Gaels got snubbed last year and have that (25-4) record but Richmond has that great backcourt and at only a 2-pt line, I like the value of a getting a 7 seed in just a “win” situation. That’s the early chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

In the late session I like Washington (+2) over Marquette. I know the Pac-10 was simply a bad conference this year, but the two teams at the top (Wash, Cal) can do some damage in this tournament and this is the case of throwing the baby out with the bath water. They have excellent guard play and that’s what you need to win this thing.

Also late I like Wake Forest (+5) to beat Texas. Teams that are on a roll going into the dance tend to stay on a roll, conversely, teams that limp in or back in seem to go out early. The truth is weather someone figured these guys out and gave everyone the blueprint or they just have lost their legs late in the season, they have not looked good for a while and two possession in a tight 8/9 tournament game is too much. That’s the day one chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

View all of the NCAA Betting Lines here.
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.