Saturday, February 6, 2010

Behind enemy lines - Super Bowl XLIV

Yo, this is Nicky the fish and after a grueling 17 week regular schedule, 3 playoff weekends, we’ve finally come to the last skirmish of the war. It’s been a wild ride as were the last two years, as we started really slow this year then caught fire about mid-way through and have played about .650 ball since then. We won’t hit our goal of 70% for the year but after a 2-0 championship weekend we want to finish strong so let’s get to it. Where do you begin to analyze this game? Once Harley’s kick sailed through the uprights the Colts became an immediate 7 point fav, then came the Freeney ankle news, the Wayne’s knee scare, and a clear weather report. Since then the line has moved like a large cap stock down as low as 5 before closing the week at 6. It’s temping to play but if Freeney isn’t 100% and Drew has all day to throw it could be a long day, or what if Raheem Brock has to come in and plays the game of his life? (can you say David Tyree? Is he even in the League anymore?) Either way, and despite Tony Dungy’s prognostication of a double digit Colt’s win, there’s just too many question marks to lay that kind of lumber even though they’re 7-2 ATS their last nine. Conversely, the Saints have not looked good in their last seven games going 1-6 ATS over that span. Where I see the only value is with the over as I don’t think either team is going to be able to stop the other and I expect a Patriot/Panthers type of game with the defenses getting tired come 4th quarter and the game really opens up. The total has gone over in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games even the Jets. So much like the NFC Championship game get your bottle of Jack, a fat Churchill, play the over 56.5 (buy the hook), route for points and enjoy the game! That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
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12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.