Sunday, January 24, 2010

Behind enemy lines, Championship Day

Yo, this Nicky and our journey of 1000 miles is now down to three steps we’ve had our usual huge win streak, but got off to just about a .500 start, all in all it’s been a positive year again but we won’t get into the 70’s (67%) like we did last year, but let’s finish strong and then move on to the second half of the NBA season, let’s get to it.

These are some monster lines when it comes to Championship Day, where normally you’re dealing with laying a deuce or a field goal but over a touch on C-Day is pretty big. Clearly what you have are teams that deal in touchdowns not field goals, well except for New York which is the lowest scoring team of the final four, and they have been the bookie’s boy as most of the betting pub has gone against them in the previous two games, including me. I know you don’t normally jump ship this late in the game but the quant data is pretty strong so I’m going to take the Jets (+9 buy the hook). I know it’s a rookie going up against the future Hall member but it’s the Jet Defense that I think will keep this game close by putting pressure on Peyton, particularly on the ends and taking him a bit out of his rhythm. On the quant side, the Jets are 7-1 ATS (7-1 straight up as well) their last 8 games, including 5-0 ATS on the road, and we’re talking in some really hostile environments. Indy has a suspect run defense and we expect the Jets to be able to move the ball on the ground and keep the Colts from getting on one of those 3-score consecutive runs. Indy is 3-6 their last 9 games when playing the Jets, and an awful 1-4 ats at home vs. NY. I don’t think they’ll win on the field but they’ll keep it close and have a pretty good chance for a back door cover as well.

Statline Jets vs. Colts
21.8 PTS FOR 26.0
14.8 PTS AGNST 19.2
7.0 DIFF. 6.8
148.8 PASS YDS 282.2
172.3 RUSH YDS 80.9
153.7 PASS D 212.7
98.6 RUSH D 126.5
-0.1 TO DIFF -0.1

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12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.