Sunday, January 24, 2010

Behind enemy lines, Championship Day

Yo, this Nicky and our journey of 1000 miles is now down to three steps we’ve had our usual huge win streak, but got off to just about a .500 start, all in all it’s been a positive year again but we won’t get into the 70’s (67%) like we did last year, but let’s finish strong and then move on to the second half of the NBA season, let’s get to it.

These are some monster lines when it comes to Championship Day, where normally you’re dealing with laying a deuce or a field goal but over a touch on C-Day is pretty big. Clearly what you have are teams that deal in touchdowns not field goals, well except for New York which is the lowest scoring team of the final four, and they have been the bookie’s boy as most of the betting pub has gone against them in the previous two games, including me. I know you don’t normally jump ship this late in the game but the quant data is pretty strong so I’m going to take the Jets (+9 buy the hook). I know it’s a rookie going up against the future Hall member but it’s the Jet Defense that I think will keep this game close by putting pressure on Peyton, particularly on the ends and taking him a bit out of his rhythm. On the quant side, the Jets are 7-1 ATS (7-1 straight up as well) their last 8 games, including 5-0 ATS on the road, and we’re talking in some really hostile environments. Indy has a suspect run defense and we expect the Jets to be able to move the ball on the ground and keep the Colts from getting on one of those 3-score consecutive runs. Indy is 3-6 their last 9 games when playing the Jets, and an awful 1-4 ats at home vs. NY. I don’t think they’ll win on the field but they’ll keep it close and have a pretty good chance for a back door cover as well.

Statline Jets vs. Colts
21.8 PTS FOR 26.0
14.8 PTS AGNST 19.2
7.0 DIFF. 6.8
148.8 PASS YDS 282.2
172.3 RUSH YDS 80.9
153.7 PASS D 212.7
98.6 RUSH D 126.5
-0.1 TO DIFF -0.1

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines Divisional Playoff Weekend

Yo, this is Nicky and coming off the split yesterday we need a winner in the late game to finish one-up so let’s get to it. The pattern seems to be obvious that the home teams are holding serve, particularly with teams that have had the extra week to prepare, and I’m not going to stand in front of the freight train, but what does concern me is the “non-ideal” weather conditions in San Diego that may keep this game close. The same questions present themselves today as they did last with regarding Mark Sanchez at QB, but throw more chips in the center of the table as it’s a bigger game AND he’s playing so close to his home town. I went against him last week and I’m going to double up and take the SuperChargers (-8.5 buying the hook). On the other side of the ball the Jets can run, but the SD rush D has been ok this year and even better at home. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Ok, we’re off to a good start in completing my mission to even up our playoff record as the Saints are looking like a good cover right now, so let’s move on to the night game. I understand there’s a mountain of pressure on the Colts to answer for laying down in week 14 instead of going for the perfect season, and they have a terrible record in the playoffs when they are the top seed and have a week to rest, that’s not what concerns me about giving up a touchdown. It’s the fact that the Ravens rush for 137 yards per game and the Colts give up well over 100 so the Ravens may be able to control the clock and keep Peyton on the sideline. Because of that I’m liking the Ravens (+7.5 buy the hook) to keep this one close. I know how much mo’ the Colts will have knowing they don’t have to deal with the Patriots their nemesis, but the Ravens are playing inspired and you know that D is not going to give up that many points so although Indy may win, the question is will they be able to put up enough to cover that number? I don’t think so. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Ok, the Pack and the Pats cost us last weekend and we had our first sub .500 weekend in a long time so we gotta get it back this weekend and things only get more difficult but let’s get to it. The first game on Saturday morning is the Cards/Saints matchup where the first thing that comes to your mind is the over, as both of these teams seem to be able to score at will but the betting lines discount everything except acts under God and they’re factoring just that, so the 58 point over is just too high to mess with. Just the same I wouldn’t go the other way as it’s possible this could be a game in the 40’s like last weekend. The Saints have had plenty of time to lament over their last 3 losses and will come out smokin’ in front of a New Orleans crowd that hasn’t hosted a home game since Chuck Muncie was playing tail for em’. I think the Cardinal’s dream of a back-to-back appearance ends this weekend and I know it’s a little lumber, but buy the hook and take the Saints down to -6.5. View the complete stats line for both teams on the main site.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Behind enemy lines WildCard Weekend

Yo, this is Nicky and I’m back for more damage after hitting the NCG for fun! It’s playoff time so we don’t have a whole board to choose from just four games so we really have to do the work to find some value because there’s no one’s flying under the radar anymore, so let’s get to it. Tough calls in these games as the lines are thin so you’re basically pickin’ winners and to start the WC weekend off I like the Bengals (-3) to get redemption for that a$# whippin’ they took in week 17. I’m still not sold on Sanchez winning his first playoff game in the frigid cold of Cincinnati. The Big Cats will be playing with heavy hearts in memory of TH and I think they’ll come out and play with enormous heart. Everyone’s talking about the Jets #1 defense, but their offense sometimes is simply non-existent and that’s something you can’t have in a playoff game, even if you should be the favorite to win the whole thing.

Wow, this second game is tough to call. I know all of the stats about beating a team 3 times in one season but actually it hasn’t been as one sided as you might think as 12 of the 19 have done just that when given the opportunity. Sometimes you just got someone’s number. In this case the Ca’Boys are playing some of the best football of the season at the right time and the Eagles simply have not been matching up well with Dallas and even though the first game was close, in the second game 7 of their 11 drives ended in punts, 1 to, 1 missed fg, and a stop on downs. We’d be asking them to turn everything around even though they’ve showed no ability to do so. On the other side is all of that history where the Ca’Boys haven’t won a playoff game since Dallas was on TV, and Romo, for being such a playboy, is a virgin when it comes to the winning a playoff game, but I think he will get his first taste this weekend. However, this is combat gentlemen and there are no points for second place, and call it a it what you will but I don’t like Dallas giving up over a field goal in this game, so buy the hook down to a FG and play Dallas -3, and don’t be surprised if you push. For a little taste, try a Cincy +4/Eagles +10 tease to cover yourself as playoff time is an excellent time to tease. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Behind enemy lines BCS Championship

Yo, this is Nicky and we’ve got one more game left before we put a great NCAA Football season on ice. We didn’t get off to a good start but caught fire the last 9 weeks of the year so this is my National Championship, let’s get to it. In the BCS Championship Game I like the Tide (-4.5) over the Horns. I know the record of dogs in this game as well as Texas’ success in the Rose Bowl but this isn’t about quantitative data, this game seems to be a simple matchup of oil and water. The Horns simply have not been able to score or move the ball against good defenses, Colt McCoy has not played well in marquis games (3 ints vs. Nebraska in the B-12 final), and good passing attacks have run up HUGE numbers against them (TTech, A&M). They’ve only got wins over two teams with bowl wins this year and I think their impressive stats are built against sub-par opponents. Look for Ingram to have a big rushing game, Julio to have at least one big play, and the Bama’ special teams to control field position. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky. Stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines, Week 17

Yo, this is Nicky back from holidays and a brief vacation paid for with my book’s money as we’ve gone 5-2 our last 7 in the NFL, and ended the season 13-4 in college, sorry for missing New Years Day but as I said, I was on the island, but it’s a complicated Sunday with lots of teams with nothing to play for but let’s jump in the fray. First game you gotta go with the Ravens to cover the 10, buy the hook if you have to, and play them as a win gets them in the playoffs. I’ll tell ya, we’ve only done one teaser this year and hit it, and we don’t do it often but this is a good week to cover ourselves with a tease to guard against teams pulling starters late, so this will also be the first game on the teaser ticket, so the Ravens are the cornerstone for the day.
For the second game let’s stay with the same strategy and play a must win against a team that’s not in contention, the Denver (-10) vs. KC game. I know Marshall is suspended but it won’t make a difference as the Broncos can still get in even if they lose and when I found out this game was played at the same time as the Ravens (Denver can’t get in if the Ravens win) then it became a go. Even if Pittsburgh wins the Broncos can still go so they’ll have something to play for. This will be the second game on the Teaser ticket so it will be Ravens -3.5/Broncos -3.
Lastly, I like the Eagles (+3.5 buy the hook) against the CaBoy’s. It should be a big game in Big D and I know it’s for all the division but if the Eagles come away with the win they’ll get a chance to rest starters on the by week so there is plenty to play for on their side and I think they’ll get it done. Moreover I would really be surprised if this turned out to be more than a 3 point game. Also a great tease to take Philly up. Ok, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.