Wednesday, December 29, 2010

coming to the peak of bowl season

Yo, this is Nicky, and I hope your holiday season is going well and I’m glad I’ve been able to help as we’ve won our last 3 games which has put a little somthin’ in your stockings if they’re still hung. But this mission is about the long haul and now it’s time to get involved in Bowl Season so let’s get to it. In the Alamo Bowl on Wednesday evening, I love the Ok State Ca’Boys (-5) against the Arizona Wildcats. The Cats have lost their last four games and given up a ton o’ points (ave over 30) in each of those games. I realize his is a statement game for the Pac-10 as one of their teams in the middle is taking on a B-12 best but Zona’ shouldn’t be carrying the flag as they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 and Ok State is 10-2 their last 12. That’s the mid-week chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines for the Holidays

Yo, this is Nicky and sorry for late post but this has been some tough sledding and most of these games mean something so you gotta keep your head about ya. Ok, lots on the table so let’s get to it. In the late games I like Bucs (-6) vs. the SeaChickens who have plenty to fight for as well but can still clinch a playoff spot with a win next week as opposed to the Bucs who must win and need some help from the Saints if they want to keep their season going. It’s no secret that Seattle doesn’t travel well (3-13 ATS on the road) and this will be tough game as Tampa loves to run the ball and Seattle is 21st in the league is against the run. Neither team is a playa’s favorite as both are 1-4 ATS over their last 5 games. That’s the Holiday chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your glove’s up!

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Beind Enemy Lines in the bowl season that's longer than baseball

Yo, this is Nicky and although we took a tough beat on Sunday I’m ready to get back in the saddle as we try to define what it means to stay in the ring and keep our gloves up so let’s begin our trek of navigating through the maze that is bowl season. I understand when you got some time off of work and your shopping is all done there’s nothing better than sitting in front of a flat screen with a cold one and watching an otherwise meaningless game but screaming your ass off because you got some scratch on it. Because you asked for it I’ll do my best to provide whatever direction I can when I see something that jumps out at me even if it is in the Kohler Toilet Bowl, so let’s get to it. Let’s see, the Hawaii Bowl, hosted by Uof Hawaii, featuring Uof Hawaii, in Uof Hawaii’s home stadium. The top ranked passing offense in the nation going up against the worst ranked defense in the nation. Not a setup to boost the program? A team from Oklahoma whose state is under six feet of snow going to the beaches of Hawaii and not be distracted?? Forget about the stats, they don’t even matter, lay the 10 points and get your bowl season off to a good start. That’s the early week chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Behind enemy lines during the most curcial week in the NFL

Yo, This is Nicky doin’ more work in the NFL as they continue to give money away as we took it off the table last week with the Pats over ChiTown and have hit 3 of our last 4 pro games and there seems to be some real good value on the board Sunday so let’s get to it. I’m a bit surprised and some of the spreads this weekend and I’ve looked for reasons to justify some of them and can’t seem to find them so I’m going to take the lumber, back my bags, and go on the road. I know EVERY long-term trend is going against them but I’m going to play the Jags +6 (buy the hook if you don’t get it) to sweep the Colts for the first time (or at least keep it close). Playing wounded the Colts are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games, and 2-4 ATS vs. the Jags their last six. To me this is not a war of attrition, but simple matchups and the Colts simply have too many injuries to hold off the Jags who are playing with a chip on their shoulder the size of Maurice Jones-Drew. They been told for too long who is the class of the division and this is their chance to stake their claim and 6 is just a TON o’ points for an inter-division teams that are playing each other for the second time in a season. That’s the early morning chowder, I’ll be back with the late game this afternoon, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, December 12, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines in the NFL

Yo this is Nicky, coming off a split last weekend, as we were among those that had our money taken out of our pocket when Troy made that amazing play in the 4th quarter last Sunday night so let’s try to get that cheese back. Fool’s go where angels fear to tread and I’m glad I laid off the early games this morning as it’s looking a lot like ‘dog day afternoon’ as the Jags, Steelers, Packers, are all not on pace to cover, and the Falcons (questionable road team) is the only team that seems to be handling their bizness’. What that said I still like my game even though the line has actually moved OUR way, which means heavy money is following us (not always a good sign as most of the public loses) but I’m still going to stick with it as now it gives us a much better number. I like the Pats (-2.5 now you can get it under a FG as the line has gone from 4 to 3 so buy the hook)to win on the road against Da’ Bears. I know New England is a terrible road team, but I will counter that as bad as they have been the Pats are actually 4-1 straight up their last 5 on the road and 5-1 over the last 6 against the Bears. I would have liked the over in this one but the weather is going to make it hard to throw which is also the only way I expected the Bears to be able to move the ball. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!
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Sunday, December 5, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL on a Sunday full of big games

Yo, this is Nicky and we’re riding a little mo’ after hitting the B-12 Championship game yesterday as I thought that might be too many points in a such a big game, so let’s keep that going as we focus on the NFL where I see some good value on the board so we’re looking at two of the late games today. Firstly, we’re going into the fire in a heated rivalry game as I like the Ravens(-2.5 buy the hook) as they host the Steelers. I know, it was a 3 point game last time and the Steelers didn’t have Big Ben but the Ravens are undefeated at home this year and they will be putting pressure on Ben all day and with his bad wheel it could be a long day. On the quant side the Steelers are 2-4 ATS their last six games, and 4-7-1 ATS when playing the Ravens. This is a huge divisional game and look for it to be close but the Ravens to come out on top, we got one more after this….

PITTSBURGH STEELERS BALTIMORE RAVENS
8-3 December 5, 8:20 PM | Turf of M&T Bank Stadium 8-3
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Another game I like is a road dog as the Ca’Boys (+7 buy it if you don’t get it) go into Indy to take on a pretty banged up Colts team, with an injury list that reads more like a starting lineup. However, one thing I normally like to see is when a team is NOT playing well as that tends to continue but in this case it does concern me a little as the Colts know they can still take the division if they turn it around. Conversely, Dallas has played very well, and motivated under their new coach and that is also a powerful trend. I realize they have no Romo and no Barber but they still have plenty of weapons to keep this game close if not win it on the field. That’s the last of the Sunday chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!


DALLAS COWBOYS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
3-8 December 5, 4:15 PM | Turf of Lucas Oil Stadium 6-5

Injury Report
INDIANAPOLIS
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Bob Sanders S Out Week 13 (biceps)
Joseph Addai RB Doubtful Week 13 (neck)
Gary Brackett LB Questionable Week 13 (toe)
Austin Collie WR Questionable Week 13 (concussion)
Brody Eldridge TE Questionable Week 13 (rib)
Aaron Francisco CB Questionable Week 13 (thigh)
Mike Hart RB Questionable Week 13 (ankle)
Kelvin Hayden CB Questionable Week 13 (neck)
Charlie Johnson T Questionable Week 13 (back)
Ricardo Mathews DE Questionable Week 13 (back)
Daniel Muir DT Questionable Week 13 (hamstring)
Clint Session LB Questionable Week 13 (elbow)
Justin Tryon CB Questionable Week 13 (foot)
Reggie Wayne WR Questionable Week 13 (knee)

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines on Championship Saturday

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS OKLAHOMA SOONERS
10-2 December 4, 8:00 PM | Turf of Cowboys Stadium 10-2

Yo, this is Nicky talkin’ and we’re coming off a split last week as Ok State let us down after Wisconsin had us covered by half-time on one of the easiest games we’ve played all season. Most of the games are significant so it was some tough sledding but I did manage to find some value on the board so let’s get to it. In the Big-12 Championship I love Nebraska (+5) which seems to be some serious lumber for a championship game when the schools are pretty close not only in record but in stats (which actually favor Nebraska) and I love getting more than a FG in rivalry games. Nebraska is 11-2 its last 13 games and don’t forget how they were supposed to get blown out last year by a good Texas team that was quite fortunate to hit a last second FG to win. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Back with the NFL later on in the day.

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Beind Enemy Lines on rivalry week

In the later games a great game to watch and good to play is OK/Ok State where If Oklahoma State can hold serve they will make their first appearance in the B-12 championship game in addition to being one of the most heated rivalries in the country. I normally prefer taking points in games like this but OSU averages 9 more points per game than does OU (45 vs. 36) and the Sooners are 1-5 ATS their last 6 on the road, so I like the Cowboys (-2.5 buy it if you don’t get it). That’s the late afternoon chowder we’ll be back for the NFL tomorrow, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

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Yo this is Nicky and I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving Holiday and didn’t get too fat on turkey and trimmings because we’re going to get PHAT at the expense of the books because some things look pretty good on Saturday. In the afternoon games I see some real value because of the split week some of the scenarios are half played out prior to the game and some teams know they have to win, and win big, so let’s get to it. I love Wisconsin (-23)at home to pummel Northwestern knowing they will be in the driver seat for the Big-10 automatic bid and a tie for the conference championship. Moreover, the fact that NW’s QB will not be available will have an even bigger impact as they will not be able to move the ball so Wisconsin will have able opportunities to run this one up. That’s one bowl of chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo this is Nicky and we took a hit yesterday as the Iowa State players slept in late after the homecoming parties and didn’t make it to the stadium, getting shut out at home, and dropping us to 8-2 and our last 10. Now it’s time to get back in the win column and I took some time but see something that looks like it has some value. I like the over (48 buy the hook) in the Giant/Eagles game. No need to review the numbers Vick has been putting up or the Eagle offense for that matter, which needless to say has gone over the total in five straight games but the total has also gone over in 4 of the last 5 Giants’ games including 5 of the last 7 when playing Philly. That’s a pretty serious trend and although I liked the Eagles this is trend is a little more strong, as Philly has not managed to take care of us at home as they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games at Lincoln Financial. That’s the afternoon chowder, check the blog later on the late game if I see something I like, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Tyring to keep the Mojo Goin'

Yo this is Nicky the Fish we hit our Thursday NFL game for the second consecutive week with the Bears easily over the Fish and we want to keep the momentum going as we’ve turned things around to go 8-1 over the last nine and we don’t want to take a step backwards so let’s get to it. We have to wait until the afternoon games but I love Iowa State (+11.5) at home against Missouri. The Cyclones are a great home team and to be honest with you Missouri has not been the same team since being knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten. If Iowa State wins they become bowl eligible and I think this one will be close and for you stat guys, I realize Mizzou is 6-1 their last 7 when they play Iowa State but they’re only 1-4-1 ATS so the Clones play them pretty tough. That’s the Saturday chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo this is Nicky and we’ve been on quite a roll lately with Cal’s close call yesterday the 21 points were never in doubt, bringing our recent streak to 7-0 and I think the train is going to keep going with what I see on the board so let’s get to it. I like Minnesota (-1 buy the hook if you need to) against the Chicago Bears. On the qualitative side, with their OT victory over the Cards last week they still have a chance of saving their season and a divisional win would be crucial. Conversely, the Bears do not have a win over anyone of substance, if fact all 5 have come from teams in last place. Furthermore, they are 2-7 ATS at home their last nine for those of you that love stats but 8-1 SU their last 9 games when playing the Vikings but that is what’s keep the line close. I’m still not sold on Da Bears so I’m going to lay the light lumber. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
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Thursday, November 11, 2010

Beind Enemy lines early in the weekend

Yo this is Nicky the Fish and we’re in the trenches early the week this week after winning our third straight NFL game last weekend, that makes 6-0 if we throw in the NCAA and NBA, so we’ve got some momentum going and want to strike when the coals are hot. In the Thursday game I see some real value as I got a home team playing a team on a short week, and not giving up any lumber at all. I like the Falcons (Pick) at home against the Ravens. Matt Ryan is a great home quarterback at 17-1 which is well documented but the Falcons are 6-1 straight up over their last 7 games, and 5-0 at home, while the Ravens are 3-4-2 ATS their last nine on the road. That’s the early weekend chowder for those of you who needed a snack prior to the weekend, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!


Saturday, November 6, 2010

Behind Enemy lines in the NFL

Yo, this is Nicky back in the trenches of the NFL , coming off another win yesterday in college as Arkansas actually won the game on the field and we didn’t even need the points so a relaxing day but we need to follow up so let’s get to it. Nothing looked good in the early games as I didn’t see any real value on the board but I did see something in the late games as I like the Packers (-7 buy the hook) hosting the Ca’Boys with John Kitna at Quarterback. The Pack is 7-1 their last 8 games at home coupled with Dallas going 1-7 ATS their last 8 on the road, on top of 2-4 ATS their last 6 against the Pack. Obviously the scary thing about this game is how desperate the Cowboys and Wade Philips are for a win but they’re just undermanned and the Tundra is a terrible place to go into when you need a win. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
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Yo, this is Nicky and I’m back after the easiest pick we’ve had all year (which has been a very tough one) as Iowa easily handled Michigan State last week, so let’s try to keep the momentum rollin’ as come down to the toughest weeks of the season. I’m going back to the SEC for the first game of the weekend and taking Arkansas (+4.5) against South Carolina. I know, on the road in the SEC is the closest thing to running the gauntlet but we’re not asking them to win, just keep it close but you never take a dog you don’t think can win on the field and the Razorbacks can. They have the second best passing offense in the country and can always score, their problem is they give up way too many as they are 46th in the country in points allowed. However, they will play the Gamecocks tight an may just get that rare SEC road win. That’s the early morning chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your glove’s up!
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Friday, November 5, 2010

Beind Enemy Lines in the NBA

Yo, this is Nicky and we’re 1-0 on the young NBA season but I got a feel for something I see on board with some good value and that’s what you look for if you don’t play every day so let’s get to it. I like the Chicago Bulls (+8.5 buy the hook if you don’t get it) going into TD Ameritrade Garden to take on the Celtics. Firstly, the Bulls are now coached by Tim Tibedow the former Celtic assistant coach who knows the Boston tendencies and counter measures. Secondly and perhaps more importantly, the Bull s are coming off a very poor showing where they battled back from almost 20 points, only to fade at the end amid controversy about sitting Rose. Even without Boozer this should be a close game and 9 points is way too much lumber for the Celtics to cover. That’s the early weekend chowder, I’m Nicky, back with college football late tonight.

Sunday, October 31, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo, this is Nicky and we took the gift the books gave us yesterday with Iowa only laying a touchdown at home. If they’re going to continue to present “gifts” like that, we’re going to take them. Unfortunately there is nothing that obvious on the board in the NFL , but we’ve won our last 2, so we have to work a little harder but let’s get to it. Ok, one rule I have always implemented is that I never bet on a dog I don’t think can win on the field. In the NFL you very rarely will see a spread over 2 tds and if you do that’s a big red flag to stay away. We don’t see anything like that this week but we are going to take a road dog in a strange game that you wouldn’t have been surprised if the line was the other way and that’s what I like. In a late game I like the over (41 buy the hook) between the SeaChickens and the Nasty Raiders at home. The stats don’t favor Seattle because they’re not a good cover team, and I was one step away from taking the field goal, but the number scared me off. Seattle is 0-5 straight up and ATS on the road against Oakland their last 5 games and I just can’t stand in front of that train and stop it. So more attractive is the over (41) as 7 of Seattle’s last 10 games have gone over as well 4 of the last 5 against Oakland. The Raiders themselves have gone over in four of their last five, so that’s where the strongest trend is. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Behind enemy lines in NCAA Football week 8

Yo this is Nicky and just when we had a little mo’ going in college Oklahoma state kinda took the wind out of our sails but let’s try and get it back this week. There have been a lot of schools that look great at home but get them on the road in a hostile environment and they seem to fall apart. Needless to day that has been the achilies heel of any team ranked #1, so when I see home teams laying a little lumber I’m not afraid to step in front of the train. There are two top ten teams that are going on the road and getting points (Mizzou and Mich St.) and one laying some hefty lumber (Oregon). Of those three the best choice is Iowa (-6.5 buy the hook and get under the touchdown) hosting Michigan State. For all of you quants the numbers against the Spartans going into Kinnick stadium and getting a win are staggering. Michigan State is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Iowa, including 1-4 ATS their last five on the road, 0-5 straight up but they kept it close one year. In short, they simply have no answer for the Hawkeyes in the cornfield and that’s not going to change. Lay the lumber and I’ll be back for the late games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Behind enemy lines but staying out of harms way in the NBA

Yo, this is Nicky and I normally wait a week or so to get a feel for how the teams are going to come out of the box to start a season but I see some real opportunity on opening night. Firstly, everyone and their mother will be tuned to the debut of the Heat as they take on the Celtics and I have no idea what to expect from that game so I’m just going to sit back and enjoy the action with everyone else. Because of that all of the attention will be off the Lakers, their ring ceremony, and the begining of the quest to tree-peat. Besides the fact that Kobe doesn’t like that they’re not the team to beat right now, Bynum is still not in the lineup, there new guys are still trying to learn the triangle offense, and quite frankly, LA never shows up on opening day, even last year when they got their rings it also ended with a loss. In any case, I’m taking Houston (+7.5) as their part-time center is more than the Lakers have right now so even LA surprises me I can’t see them covering such a large number. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Ok, sweating out the first game of the day right now as the Bucs are making us work for it but on the late games I’m going to take a road dog New England (+3.5 buy the hook if you got it at 3). On the stat side the Pats are 5-1 their last 6 straight up while the Chargers are 2-5-1 ATS their last 8 games. The Pats’ offense has been clikin’ since the acquisition of Branch and he’s not another week under his belt to get acclimated to the offense, but the Charger defense is best in the NFL against the pass and that is a bit of a concern. Conversely, their defense is the worst in the NFL and New England will take advantage of that for field position and in a close game that could make all the difference. What does scare me is the desperation factor as the Chargers are in a must win situation or their playoff hopes are seriously hurt even though they play in the AFC Weak. That’s the late afternoon bowl of chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Yo, I’m back riding a 2-0 NFL weekend from last week and over .675 for the year so let’s get right to it. With all of the attention on the marquis games it leaves room to make some crafty picks of your own and stay out of harm’s way. With that said, I like Tampa Bay (-2.5 buy the hook) at home to win by a field goal. The Rams are 0-5 their last five games on the road and 1-6 ATS their last 7, while the Bucs are 4-1 over their last five. That’s the early morning bowl of chowder, back with more this afternoon. Stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 23, 2010

Behind enemy lines in NCAA Football

Yo, this is Nicky and I can finally look you all in the eye again after we had our first undefeated weekend going 3-0, but we have to keep the momentum going as still under .500 in college but doing well in the NFL so let’s get to it. I love home dogs, particularly in college and when the team can score that makes it that much better as that’s when you can get some real value. I like the Oklahoma State Cowboys (+6.5 buy the hook) hosting the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I know Big Red is 6-1 their last 7 games but I question the competition they’ve played against and they are only 1-5 ATS their last 6. Take the home dog and when you speak of me, speak of me well. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo, this is Nicky and after sweating out a ½ point win with the Beavers yesterday we’re back on the Left Side in the NCAA, let’s see if we can repeat the feat in the NFL and get to it. There seems to be some good value on the board early and we don’t often do this but I like two games so I’m going to play them both. Firstly, I love the Ravens (3.5 buy the hook, it saved you last night) going into the Razor for a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional playoff game. The Ravens blew out the Pats in their own house and to honest with you I don’t see a whole lot that’s changed except that New England isn’t as explosive on offense. Brilliant Bill will soon learn that he can’t win with just anyone, and Welker will not be the same receiver without Moss clearing out the zones for him. The Pats D is still suspect and I look for the Ravens to test those young corners and score enough points to give their D enough cushion to take stomach some big plays.
In another early game I like the Texans (-4.5) to hold serve at home and beat the Chiefs who are beginning to be exposed for being the benefactor of a soft early schedule. The Texas are 7-2 their last 9 games and if Chambers is still out with is finger that’s one less big play the Chiefs will have. The under in this game looks interesting as well but, but KC going 7-17 their last 24 games makes me lean towards the BlackBirds. Chat’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
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Well, we seem to be going the wrong way in college so far this season and it’s been a rough one so I spent some extra time trying to get an edge and I hope it pays off so let’s get to it. I realize there are easier games to call but I like a road team in the Pac-10 Oregon State(+1 ½ buy the hook) against Oregon State. The beavers played their best game of the year last week and stunned Arizona at home and I look for them to keep the momentum going. I was looking at this from the other side, and I am normally rely on qualitative data more the quantitative but the numbers for this one are quite overwhelming. Washington is 0-5 straight up in its last 5 games, including 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oregon State. Also Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oregon State, and has lost 4 of 5 on the field. In the world of wagering those would be considered very strong trends. Ok, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo, this is Nicky and we’re riding some momentum in the NFL and (and that’s the only place) so we need to make up for our futility on Saturday s so let’s get to it. Injuries are starting to play a major role in way things are going to play out and without a quality QB, things ain’t gonna be fun as the defenses are in mid-season form already, and with that in mind I like the Carolina Panthers (-2.5 buy the hook) against the Bears. I know the Panthers are winless but it’s on the offense as the D is doing its job (only allowed 16 points against the defending champs last week) , and with Cutler on the sideline with an injury, that offense was anemic last week when he went down. With a week to scheme to stop the run, Carolina will win this. Don’t get me wrong I’m not sold on Claussen, but he’ll do just enough NOT to lose the game. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Behind enemy lines in NCAA Football

Yo, this is Nicky and we have been getting WHACKED in college the last four weeks including simply going the wrong way on Texas Tech last week, so we need to get back on track and we’re going back to an old well to do it. This is one of those tough Saturday’s because you either jump into the fire on a tough game that could go either way or play a top 15 laying 56 points against a cupcake. What we’re trying to do is find a good home team that isn’t laying 3 touchdowns so it still can be in a one score game in the 4th and still cover. Of the games that fit this mold we like going back to the desert with Arizona (-7.5) against Oregon State. We know after a big home win against a top 10 like Iowa there could be a let down, but being ranked in the top-10 for the first time in years will be motivation enough. OState does have some serious weapons that should produce a cheap score but it shouldn’t be enough to keep this one within 10 points. Arizona is 6-1 its last seven games and 10-2 over the last 12. I think the bear trap is those that might be taken by the stat that the Cats are 1-4 against Oregon State at home their last five games. But the rub is that that pre-dates back ten years and includes the pre-stoops era, not to mention a totally different mindset, but that’s why you’re not laying 13 points so take it and bid it. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the hunt for October

Yo, this is Nicky and now that we’ve had an opportunity to get a feel for the playoffs games it’s time get off the bench and get into the game so let’s get to it. We’ve managed to call the MLB pretty well going 12-5 our last 17 and we’re going to play the “desperation card” in this hand and look at all the clubs that HAVE to win. Among those three we think the Rays (+115) present the most value. I realize there has been much ado about their home crowd but I think will show up today. Can you imagine the club with the best record in baseball is a HOME DOG in game two of the ALDS??? Either someone knows something or there is amazing value on the board, and I’m going for the latter. No need to talk about stats because all of those go out the window come October. Case in point was the stat that the Rangers had scored all of 2 runs in their last six playoff games combined and put more than that on the board yesterday against the front runner for the AL Cy Young Award. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, October 3, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo this is Nicky back in League after a win last week (Bengals) to take us to 2-1 on the early season this week we look to get a little separation on the book so let’s get to it. In the late afternoon game I like the Giants (-3 buy the hook if you need to) to beat the Bears. This is almost a must win for the Giants in the NFC East as if they fall to 1-3 it will be quite the mountain to climb to get into a playoff spot. I know, the Bears are 5-0 in their last 5 but they’re only 3-8 ATS on the road and this will be a test to that defense. The numbers also show that the GMen are 1-5 ATS their last five so we are definitely swimming up stream but I like the Giants playing in front of that home crowd. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 2, 2010

Behind enemy lines in NCAA Football

Yo this is Nicky the Fish and although we seem to be measuring the NFL well we’ve yet to hit our stride in college so let’s try to get healthy this week. In an afternoon game I like Texas Tech (-6.5 buy the hook) going into Iowa State. At 33.7 points per game Tech has plenty of offense to win and cover the number, and the Clones don’t score enough (20 points per game) to stay with the high octane offense of the Raiders. On the quant side, Texas Tech seems to have the Cyclones number as they are 5-1 ATS against them over their last six games. Here’s the complete stat line, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

Yo this is Nicky, and we need to get in the win column to get over the water level (0-2) after the Patriots decided to get to the airport early to beat traffic and left at half-time, so let’s get to it. I like what see on the board today and have a couple to choose from but one that stands out is taking the Bengals (-3) to take out the Jimmy Classen let Carolina Panthers, making his first NFL start. The Panthers don’t score a lot to begin with (12 per game) and I can’t see how a new QB is going to put up enough to beat the Bengals. Don’t worry I did the work and realize the Bengals are only 1-4 against the spread their last 5 but after an inter-division win last week over a good Ravens club they will be looking to build some momentum and I think their D is going to T-off on the rookie. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, September 24, 2010

Beind Enemy Lines in the NCAA

Yo, this is Nicky and after getting even on the year at 1-1 with Arizona last week we’re looking to get a little scratch in the game so let’s get to it. On Saturday afternoon I like the Head Ball Coach’ and the Gamecocks (+3.5 buy the hook if you don’t get it) going into Auburn and getting a tough SEC on the road. Auburn had a tough OT game last week and got a little beat up with injuries. On the quant side the Gamecocks are 4-1 in their last 5 but only one of those was on the road. Auburn has been good at home (6-1) but only 2 covers in those six wins. I know, Auburn is 4-0 against SC over the last 4 games but you’re asking them to basically win by 6 or 7 and that’s really too much lumber, even at home, in the SEC. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the NFL

This is Nicky and we got off to a good start in NCAA football calling the Arizona upset, which really wasn’t much of an upset but we’re 0-1 in the NFL after the Falcons defense left the field after the 4th quarter thinking the game was over, unfortunately for us the game went into overtime. Anyway, we got some work to do so let’s get to it. Although there may be some less competitive games on the schedule I like the value I see with the Patriots (-2.5 buy the hook) going into Jersey and beating the Jets. The Jet will continually get better throughout the year but the Pats will still score and that Jet offense is terrible. They will not be able to score with Pats and any time you can get it for less than a FG you’re pretty much just asking them to win on the field. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Beind Enemy Lines in the NCAA

Yo this is Nicky, and we’ve been on a roll in MLB after another win with the Giants to take our record to 13-5, but it’s a Saturday and now it’s time to focus on football. We’re ready to jump into the fray in college and are choosing a tough game to do so but I think I see an opportunity. I like the Arizona Wildcats (pick) hosting the Iowa Hawkeyes. I realize Iowa is ranked in the top ten but no one seems to know how difficult it is to play in the desert in front of that crowd (4-1 last 5). It’s worth a touchdown and you get a chance to play the game straight up so take it and bid it. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Opening Week in the NFL

Yo, this is Nicky the Fish and I know baseball has been good to us going 12-5 over the last month or so but now it’s time to separate the men from boys and the women from the girls and play some football. Normally, like we’re doing in college, we let the first couple of pitches go by to get a feel for teams, but sometimes you’ll miss out on some good value if you’ve done the work during pre-season and I think we see some value on the board so we’re going Ricky Henderson and are going to hack away, so let’s get to it! Another break in the mold is taking a roadie to start the season as I usually like to take advantage of the home momentum, however you always pay for that mo’ and this it’s keeping our spread under a field goal where otherwise I’d be willing to give up six. Play HOTLanta (-2) on the road against Pittsburgh as they’ve struggled to score in the pre-season and will continue to do so without the services of Big Ben. I like Dixon and want to see him do well but I think the Falcons are going to give him a rude intro into the league. Stats from pre-season or last year don’t mean a think now so I won’t waste your time. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in ring and keep your gloves up! Don't forget to chat live with me and other players in the Player's club chat room, where you can discuss the spreads, weather, stats, and everything you need to gain the edge.
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Monday, September 6, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines, down the home stretch

Yo, this is Nicky and before we get into the meat and potatoes of the calendar year that is the NFL/NCAA football season we’ve got some baseball to finish up so let’s get to it. Ok, we ran the Giants back and got away with laying the heavy cheese and our now 10-5 our last 15, and in the spirit of dancing on the precipice I’m going to try and catch the falling knife that is the Padres 10 game losing streak and call the end to it tonight (-160). What we’re always looking for is good value and if you can get a division leader, down the stretch, in a one game pennant race, going up against a sub.500 club and only lay 1.5 you got some value so take it and bid it. Everyone is focusing on the Padres losing streak but no one is SEEING how bad the Dodgers are going 1-4 in their last 5 games. Last thought, if you’re tempted to play the young, The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Dodgers last 8 games when playing on the road against San Diego, but I’m playing for a breakout game and that could very well mean an offensive outburst. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, August 28, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines in the MLB pennant race

Ok, this is Nicky and I’m still bitter about yesterday’s loss dropping us to 9-5 (just over even w/juice) so we’re going to get some of our cheese back and break one of our ‘constraints’ because as you know there are no “RULES” in what we do. That said, we are going to run it back and play the Giants (-220) against the Dbacks on the premise that they will not get swept at home. This has not happened all year and with the pressure of their Wild Card hopes (now 2.5 games out) taking a hit in a series that they almost surely penciled themselves winning if not sweeping. The Dbacks have Cain on the bump at 5-10, and I don’t seem him being able to shut the Giants offense down. If you’re looking to Par, check out the over at 7.5. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

*******************************************************************************

Yo, this is Nicky stepping back into the box after looking fastball and getting the deuce on that Reds call. My bad. So we’ve dropped to 9-4 but gave up a unit and a half because of the juice so we gotta get that back. Fortunately, the best thing to remedy a bad loss is a good win and there seems to be some good value on the board today, but as you know we only chose one, so I’m going with the Giants (-150) to beat the last place Diamondbacks. I’ve tried to find something wrong with this game as the Giants are a great home team, they have Zito on the bump going against Hudson who has only 6 starts to his credit, and it’s the type of matchup we’re looking for where one team has everything to lose going up against a club with nothing to gain. On the quant side San Francisco is 7-1 their last 8 games against Zona and 6-1 at home. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Beind Enemy Lines in the pennant race

Yo, this is Nicky back for more damage but I gotta’ admit there was no way of knowing about Strasburg’s injury but we’ll take the win just the same for our third in a row to move to 9-3 in our last 12. Things don’t get any easier as the season moves more and more into crunch time, so unless you want to lay huge lumber in games that involve a non-contender you need to keep on your toes and do your homework. I realize road dogs are a risky prop in August but that’s also what keeps you at least close to even money when betting on a good club so let’s get to it. I like the Reds (-102) going into AT & T Park against the Giants. Travis Wood (4-1, 2.51 ERA) could be the best kept secret and even better than the afore mentioned Strasburg, and San Francisco's hitters may all face a challenge facing him for the first time. Anyway, it’s minimal juice to lay for a division winner in the heat of a pennant race. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep you glove’s up, as Football is coming soon!!

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines in the MLB pennant race

Yo this is Nicky and we’re back in the winners column with two straight wins bringing the record to 8-3 for the last 11. We’re really trying to pick our spots now, particularly as the games begin to be really important to some clubs while others are bringing up players to get ready for next year. Couple that with some serious juice on the home teams that need a win and you almost have to win 2 to 1 just to break even, but this is where a little homework goes a long way, so let’s get to it. On a day where many staff aces are on the hill I’m going to going to go against one and us the hype to our advantage and get good value with a home team that’s a contender. We can get the hottest team in baseball Philly, and only lay 10% juice so go against the rook and play Philly -110 . The Phillies have won 18 of their last 21 at home and 9-1 against Washington in their last 10. Even if Strasburg is ace he won’t go the distance because of the pitch count and when Philly gets into the bullpen the Nats better have a big cushion. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines in tight divison races

Yo, this is Nicky the Fish back in the saddle of MLB after dropping 3 straight to go 6-3 in our last nine, but we’ve got a mound of data and we are finally getting some separation in a few of the divisions and some good value as well so let’s get back to it. In the evening games I like the OVER in the Twins/Sox Opener (7 buy the hook if your book has it at 7.5). It’s the beginning of a crucial three game set between the two after Minnesota took 3 out of 4 the last time the two matched up. I was looking at the Twins to take game one, but the pitching matchup is tight with Danks (12-8) going up against Baker (10-9) so rather than fight the momentum of a crucial divisional series that the Sox almost have to win, play thwith the mo’ and ride the over. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, saying stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines in the MLB

Yo, this is Nicky and I’ve gone back to my corner, got some Vaseline and Enswell on my face and I’m back in the center of the ring, after losing three straight following that great run of six wins in a row. I took a step back, took another look at the board, and think it’s time we got back in the left column so let’s get to it. I like the “snake bitten” LA Angels (-160) to beat the Red Sox in game two of their series. At 7 games back LA realizes their chances for the post season are slipping away and they gotta make their move in the next two series or it’s pretty much done. After dropping a close game one I like them to rebound in game two at home. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Behind enemy line in the MLB

Real tough games to call right now, and when you hit a rough spot you gotta’ take a step back, evaluate your data, and try to get back on track. I’m real surprised at some of the action as I was watching last night, as one would expect Lincecum and Kershaw to duel on a So Cal Summer evening but that game went way over and TL didn’t even make it to through the 6th. We weren’t on that game but it was one that I was watching. Anywayt after running 6 in a row, we dropped two to bring our record to 6-2 our last 8, lot’s of work to do, so let’s get to it. I received your questions so read the comments and you’ll see that there are some games you just want to stay off and pick a target that’s away from the herd. With that in mind I’m going to play the Brewers (-124) going against Duke who is 3-9 although he did have a good outing his lat time out only giving up 2 runs. But I like the ‘Brew Crew’ coming off a loss, and they’re winners of 6 of their last 10. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your glove’s up!

Monday, July 19, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines, MLB

Yo, this is Nicky, and we knew the streak had to end some time but I really didn’t expect to go out THAT WAY. I was on my way up to the ticket counter as the Dodgers had a 3-run lead in the 8th knowing that Big Broxton could come in and get 5 outs for em’, but it didn’t happen and we were snake bitten in the 9th so now were 6-1 in the last 7. Enough with the spilled milk(profits) so let’s get back to it. I like the over on the Red Sox /A’s (8) tonight even though it’s a late game for Boston. DiceK is back but he’s not quite his former self and he’s giving up early runs and I can’t see him getting past the 6th. Between both teams they give up just under 10 runs per game and I look for a little jet lag to create opportunities for Oakland. Play the over, that’s chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
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Sunday, July 18, 2010

Behind MLB enemy lines - Sunday

Yo, this is Nicky and I am still floating like a butterfly and stingin’ like a bee after calling the end to the White Sox streak at Minnesota, and now we’ve won six in a row. I hope you are all on the train. If I keep this up I’m going to have to open my own 900 number (1-900-kickurboksarse). Ok, let’s not get too ahead of ourselves as that’s exactly when you get whacked, and let’s get to it. As you also know I’m not afraid to swim against the steam as that’s often when you find the most value and I like the Dodgers (-105) to avoid the sweep at St. Louis. I know how bad their record is in the arch city (4-20) after losing the first three of the series but Padilla is tough and you don’t sweep a Joe Torre club four straight. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, July 16, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines in the MLB

This is Nicky and after six consecutive wins I’m really starting to drink my own punch so I’m going to going to go out on a limb and test the limits tonight. I’m in the camp that regardless if you spin the roulette wheel 20 times and get 20 reds, you have the same odds of getting red as you do on black on the 21st spin. My point? Despite winning 10 games in a row the White Sox could just as easily improve the streak to 11 tonight as they take on the Twins. But I am going to go the other way and take Minnesota (-132) to break the streak and start the second half of the season with a win. I realize it’s the hottest team in the division vs. the coldest team in the division but that’s why we’re getting good value for a home team, and with Floyd on the mound at 5-7 for the South-Siders, I like the value. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines in the MLB

Yo this is Nicky the fish and now we’re just going to let the record speak for itself as we’re 5-0 over the last 5 games with no intention of slowing down so let’s get to it. Coming out of the all-star break is tough to call but I love home teams with that much rest (better than .650) and I can’t think of a better home team to play for decent value than the St. Louis Cardinals w/Carpenter on the bump and the Cardinals totally dominate LA at home since 2004 as they have a 17-4 record while outscoring them 5.9 to 2.7, and only allow 2.3 runs per game to 5.23 for the Dodgers. I know LA hits right handers much better because Andre’s stick becomes a factor but at (+170) we’re almost getting 2 to 1 on our money for a home team. I also know Manny is coming back but is that going to do more harm than good? I like the Cards. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Behind enemy lines in the MLB

Yo, this is Nicky, back for more work after the Yankees took care of business against the A’s and improved the MLB record to 4-0. If we keep this up we’ll start sounding like those 800 numbers that claim they never lose, but let’s try to keep it going. On Sunday I like the Dodgers (-142) to win their last game at home prior to the All-Star Break. There is good value paying less than 1.5 for a home team even though they’re facing Silva. It’s a crapshoot to see how much his calf injury will affect his play but coming off a loss and with Padilla on the bump I like LA to take the series and the game. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines in the MLB

Yo this is Nicky the Fish and sorry for the late post but I needed to confirm the starting line-ups and the game I like is on the West coast so let’s get to it. We’ve now hit three MLB games in a row after we hit our easy winner with the Braves over the Nats. I realize we’ve been laying a lot of lumber on the favs so I’ve tried to be more than careful to only jump in where I see value, and I have another one tonight. I like Yanks (-150) with CC on the bump going into Oakland in a revival of “moundgate”. The A’s printing up T-Shirts which serves more to rally the Yankees than inspire the A’s. Even with that the A’s are going to try and throw a righty and that brings the big sticks into play for NY, take em. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Behind enemy Lines MLB

Yo this is Nicky the Fish and I gotta admit I’m feeling pretty good now that we’ve hit our first two MLB games (Dodgers over Yanks, Marlins Over 8) this week. Let’s try to keep the momentum going and build up some scratch going into the weekend. On Wednesday I love HotLanta -170 to take care of the Nats at home. I know, it’s some serious lumber but I like Jurrjens and that Braves lineup is tailor made for right handed pitching, and coming off a loss they’re one of the best in the league. That’s the chowder for Wednesday, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your glove’s up!

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Jumping into the MLB fray

Yo this is Nicky the Fish and after a brief hiatus following the NBA and NHL playoffs it’s time to jump into the MLB fray as well. There’s been plenty of data to analyze so we’ll try to select a few per week and see if we can build some momentum so let’s get to it. Interleague play is tough to call because of how the DH changes effect the totals and pitching rotation but I see some value on the board. I like the Dodgers -117 to take game two of the NY/LA series (Burnett vs. Kuroda). I know LA is terrible in interleague play (1-9) but they match up well at home, hit much better against right handed pitching, Manny is hot, and Joe will not lose a series to his old club. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your glove’s up!

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Behind Enemy lines NBA/Stanley Cup Finals

Yo this is Nicky the Fish and we gave one back with the NHL Stanley Cup in Game 6 as I thought Philly would send it to a game 7 so that runs the recent record to 3-1, and we need to get back into the win column so let’s get to it. In Game 4 of the NBA finals I know Boston will finally play with a sense of desperation as they know if they drop this game then the series is all over, but that’s the very thing that has me concerned, that there’s blood in the water and the Moomba can smell it. Kobe rarely has two bad games in a row. What is even a bigger problem for the C’s is that they don’t seem to have an answer for the Laker D and LA is 10-0 in the playoffs when holding their opponents to less than 100. This one will be a war and the game of the series and in a game like that 4.5 points is way too many. I’m going to take the points and LA (+4.5 buy the hook) to either win this and put the Celtics to bed or keep it close. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
___________________________________________
Yo, this is Nicky the Fish swimming the shark filled water that is the NBA and NHL Finals and living to tell fish tales about it as we’ve hit our last three picks. We’ve got some huge must win games coming up so let’s get to it. In Lord Stanley’s Finals game game 6, I realize the 18-carrot is dangling in front of the BHawks but the Flyers are have lost only one game at home in the post season and will not do down easy. This game may have been a toss-up as of last night but the definition of billboard material was posted in the Chicago Tribune with the picture of Chris Pronger in a skirt and that should be more than enough motivation to spark the Flyers to answer the call (-175) and send this to game seven in Chi-Town. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Yo, this is Nicky and we’re coming off a 2-0 night on Sunday and I think we got a pretty good feel for the next couple of games so let’s get to it. The Celtics are coming back home after one of their most impressive wins of the season, go figure they would only get 6 from KG and 10 from PP and still win the game, but don’t count on Ray getting free for 8 three pointers again in game 3. Also the Celtics are playing on 1 day of rest which killed them during the regular year as they played more of those games than any other team, not to mention they’re the worst home team of any in the playoffs and that sounds like I’m going to take the Lakers (+3 buy the hook if your line is 2.5). The LA offense should get back in gear and look for them to play with a sense of urgency. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines NBA-NHL Finals

Yo, this is Nicky and we’re back in business for the NHL and NBA Finals now that we’ve had an opportunity to see how both are playing out so let’s get to it. In the NBA the Celtics find themselves in a must win situation after getting whacked in game one. I know LA is unbeaten at home and they may still win this on the court but you gotta figure with all the backlash that the C’s are going to come out with everything they’ve got and keep this one close if not outright win it. Doc will make some adjustments on D and more importantly Allen will stay out of foul trouble which will change the complexity of the game. I’m going to take the 6.5 (buy the hook) and play the Celtics to even the series.

In the NHL I know it’s a huge amount of lumber but I love the BHawks (-190) coming back home in the all important game 5. I know it’s not the NBA but in any sport that has a 7-game system this is the game you gotta win and it’s going to be tough to take out the Bhawks in ChiTown. So close to the first Chicago Hockey championship in over 40 years they won’t let it slip through their fingers. The +1.5 is appealing but Philly will go empty net if they’re down in the 3rd and you don’t want to get backdoored. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
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Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines, NHL Frozen Four Playoffs

Yo, this is Nicky and we’re going to finally jump into the NHL fray as so often is the case you’ve gotta’ lay so much juice to get a decent line that there is no value there but there’s a break in the trend tonight. In game six I’m gonna’ lay the lumber and take Vancouver (-130) to hold serve at home and push the series to a game 7. They are ridding some serious mo’ coming back from the brink of elimination and I going with the qualitative feel on this one as Cannucks dominated the BHawks in game 5 in ChiTown with a 4-1 win and I think they may has a formula for continued success. Here’s the statline, and that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up.


CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS VANCOUVER CANUCKS
52-22-8 May 11, 9:30 PM | of General Motors Place 49-28-5

BETTING TRENDS
CHICAGO
Chicago is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
VANCOUVER
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Vancouver's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Vancouver's last 8 games at home
Vancouver is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vancouver's last 7 games when playing Chicago
Vancouver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Vancouver's last 8 games when playing at home against Chicago
Vancouver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago

Saturday, May 8, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines, NBA Conference Semi-Finals

Ok, this is Nicky and there’s no doubt that this is not football season as we are have just been getting whacked by the NBA Playoffs so we need to go on a roll to get back in into the positive column. On Saturday I like the Lakers (+4.5) going into Utah. I know the last 3 times these teams have matched up the Lakeshow won games 1 and 2 and dropped game 3 in Utah, but think about last year’s game it was a missed 3 by Kobe at the buzzer that could have given LA the win and they were in hunt the entire game. However this time they are on a massive 4 days of rest and for a team that plays as well on the road as they do that could spell the end for Utah. AK-47 is going to play but is that really going to make that big of a deal? Do you think he’s healthy enough to cover the Momba? It may end up hurting more than helping in the end, and his shot certainly won’t be ready for “playoff game speed”, lastly w/Phoenix taking care of business and going up 3-0 LA wants to keep pace. Take it and bid it. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your glove’s up!

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines, NBA Conference Semi-Finals

Yo, this is Nicky back to jump into the NBA fire. We’ve been getting it handed to us the last couple of NBA Playoff games so we need to rally and get back in the black so let’s get to it. We’re getting to the time when there’s a month between playoff games which really helps the veteran teams, so there’s only one game in the Association tonight but its crucial one and I know the Spurs know they cant beat the Suns 4 out of 5 so a loss tonight all but seals their fate and I like the Spurs (+3) to not only cover but win this one on the court. I know they can hold serve at home but the crafty vets and Popovich will make adjustments and keep this one close. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, April 30, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines NBA Playoffs

This is Nicky and we’re jumping back into the fray after getting losing the last NBA call in the fourth quarter as the Nuggets scored six straight points to beat us. There’s been some upsets and the favs haven’t been covering but I like the defending champs (+2) tonight getting points on the road as that is getting HUGE value. I think everyone’s drinking too much punch with the fact that the Thunder have won both games on their court but keep in mind that LA was on two days rest in game 3 and had a 7 point lead going into the fourth quarter. Normally that means lights out but on short rest the young legs of OKC were able to take the lead and hold with just over 6 minutes to go. That won’t happen again and I look for LA to win this one on the court let alone cover. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Here's the statline:

Lakers - Thunder Statline
Lakers TEAM Thunder
101.7 PTS FOR 101.5
97.0 PTS AGNST 98.0
4.7 DIFF. 3.5
32.5 DEF. REBOUNDS 31.8
11.9 OFF. REBOUNDS 11.7
45.7 FG% 46.2
76.5 FT% 80.5
6.5 3 POINTERS 5.1
7.5 STEALS 8.0

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines NBA Playoffs

Yo, this is Nicky back for more action in the Association where you’re always asking for trouble if you try to win on the road but the only way to win is to find value on the board and I think I see some with the Jazz (+7) trying to close things out with the Nuggets. No doubt people have been waiting for Denver to show up in this series and with crafty vets like Chauncey and Kmart they’ve played with their backs against the wall before, but Utah despite their injuries seems to have their number and creates plenty of matchup problems for them, enough to keep this close if not win it on the court. Slone is too good a coach to rest starters if they get behind in a close out game and will accept nothing less than 100% effort because he knows anything can happen if the series extends. I like the Jazz plus significant lumber in this one. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
Statline Utah vs. Denver
UTA TEAM DEN
104.2 PTS FOR 106.5
98.9 PTS AGNST 102.4
5.3 DIFF. 4.1
31.6 DEF. REB 30.5
10.6 OFF. REB 10.8
49.1 FG% 46.8
74.1 FT% 77.2
5.4 3 POINTERS 6.6
8.2 STEALS 8.3
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Thursday, April 22, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines, NBA Playoffs

Yo this is Nicky and we’re back after taking a step back and watching the first two games of each series of the NBA playoffs unfold I finally see a little value on the board so let’s get to it. What I like on Thursday evening are the defending champions actually Getting 3 points in an 8-1 matchup. I realize the Thunda’ played them really tough in LA but anyone who knows the Lakeshow knows they’re pretty much the same team at home and on the road in the playoffs and although I don’t expect a different kind of game the Lakers should win this on court let alone getting 3 points. Here’s the statline:

Monday, April 5, 2010

Behind the Enemy Lines of the NCAA Championship

Yo, this Nicky and no lie we’ve gotten our hat handed to us over the last two games but now it’s time to answer with vigor. In the NCAA Championship I like the fact that Butler has not allowed a team to score 60 points in any game and they close very quickly outside the 3 point line so Duke may not be scoring as much as they normally do so I like the Bulldogs +9 to stay in this game and have an opportunity to actually win the game on the court late. They will have to shoot better from outside the arch than they did in the Semis but they can’t shoot any worse and I don’t know if Duke can shoot any better. No doubt the Blue Devils are playing their best basketball of the season so this won’t be easy but “defense prevails in the dance” and I like the Butler D to have this within two possessions in the end. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! See you in a week for the NBA playoffs.

Behind the Enemy Lines of the NCAA Championship

Yo, this Nicky and no lie we’ve gotten our hat handed to us over the last two games but now it’s time to answer with vigor. In the NCAA Championship I like the fact that Butler has not allowed a team to score 60 points in any game and they close very quickly outside the 3 point line so Duke may not be scoring as much as they normally do so I like the Bulldogs +9 to stay in this game and have an opportunity to actually win the game on the court late. They will have to shoot better from outside the arch than they did in the Semis but they can’t shoot any worse and I don’t know if Duke can shoot any better. No doubt the Blue Devils are playing their best basketball of the season so this won’t be easy but “defense prevails in the dance” and I like the Butler D to have this within two possessions in the end. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! See you in a week for the NBA playoffs.

Saturday, April 3, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines Final Four Weekend

Yo, this is Nicky and we’re going back into the fire trying to pick the final four and these games are as close as they come, but let’s get to it. In the second game it’s a rematch of the 2008 regional between West Virginia and Duke when the Mountaineers took the Devils and then let them know about it. Duke hasn’t forgotten and neither has Coach K. As with most games that pit a contrast in styles this will be a test of who has the patience to wait for their ‘set’, but if there was a game when WV needed their injured point guard it’s this one. He won’t be. On the quant side, both teams are 5-0 in their last 5 games and 4-1 ATS over the same span. In other words, this is will be tight so I love taking the points and having a one possession cushion, so play West Virginia (+3.5 buy the hook if you have to) as they have a good chance of winning on the court and you get the cushion in case Duke gets the last shot. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your glove’s up!

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines in the Sweet 16

This is Nicky and although we gave up our lead late last weekend to end up 5-5 I see some things I like on the board so this is what I got. I think the injury to Daryll Bryant will be significant and the Mounties are going to have to work if they want to advance on Thursday let alone cover the spread, and it will be too much to ask I like the Huskies (+5) to cover and possibly win on the court.
View all of the NCAA Betting Lines here.
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Saturday, March 20, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines, Tournament weekend games

This is Nicky back for more work after dropping 2 games yesterday to be at an even 5-5 for the tournament. Can you believe that last shot by Old Dominion?? They were given a layup and decided to take the pro-range 3, that cost us the cover. Well we knew the job was dangerous when we took it but let’s stay in the ring, so here’s what I got. I like Texas A&M (-3) versus Purdue, I realize many have been calling for the demise of the Boilermakers since Hummel’s injury and they got by their fist matchup but they pay the piper Sunday as they may not have the offensive firepower to keep up with A & M.

Ok, the monster answered yesterday taking 2 of the 3 from us taking us to 4-3 for the dance so we gotta get healthy today, here’s what I got.

Historically in the dance the second day of the weekend has been better to take the points because the teams don’t have the time between games to prepare that they normally do but the line makers just look at teams on their normal merits and that’s where you find the value. So what it see on Saturday is Ohio U (+9 buy the hook) against Tennessee. Rule of thumb is that you never take a dog that you don’t think can win on the court and OU can do that. I thought UT was lucky to get by on Thursday, and not playing their best ball right now.

Another game I like is Old Dominion (+6) vs. Baylor for the same reasons I mentioned before but also because of their D. Allowing less than 60 points per game should give OD a good chance to win let alone keep it within 6 points.

Lastly, I like Washingrton (-2 buy it if you have to) to beat New Mexico in what the seedings would consider an upset yet UW is layin’ points. This is a game that if it was during the regular season and you saw this line you would be all over it. Unlike some of the other schools we’ve talked about the Huskies are playing well right now and they’ve played against tough comp this year and I like them to take the Pac-10 to 3-0. That’s the Saturday chowda’, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines, Tournament Style

Hey this is Nicky “the fish” talkin’ and we flew into the eye of the storm that is the NCAA tournament and lived to tell about it going 3-1 on opening day with wins from KState, Washington, and Wake Forest but were never really in the Richmond game. Just the same, I’ll take it now we have some scratch in the game if a couple of buzzer beaters don’t go our way so let’s get to it.

I was looking at the Cornell/Temple game but thought it would be too much fun to watch have a fiscal state as well, plus I thought it was too close to call. If we learned anything from yesterday it’s that taking the points is a prudent way to go in most cases, and I see some value with Siena(+4.5), I know everyone and their mother are calling that upset but if they’re going to give money away I’m going to take it. Purdue is simply not the same club without Hummel although I would expect more points than 4.5 in a 13/4 matchup.

Another game where the ratio of points/risk is balanced is Wisconsin (-9.5) vs. Wofford. I like the Badgers size down low and think they’re going to create some major problems for Wofford making it difficult for them to score. If they get behind early look for them to start trying to get it from outside where the odds are dramatically in Wisconsin’s favor. Take the badgers. That's the chowder, I'm Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

View all of the NCAA Betting Lines here.
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Yo, long time, this is “Nicky the Fish” back from a long hiatus and I’m ready to fly into the eye of the storm by trying to successfully pick the NCAA tournament but I’ve done the work and waited to see if the parity of this tournament was going to be all that, and it looks like it is. So pack plenty of heat because we’re going to war. Let’s get to it.
Ok, I’m not into laying 50 points in a 20 minute game but I love Kansas St. (-15) against North Texas. KState is a question mark to see how they will play on a neutral court but they are a consensus pick to make it to the final four and I think they’re going to come out firing on both cylinders and send a message.

Another game where I see good value is Richmond (-2) against St. Marys. I know they Gaels got snubbed last year and have that (25-4) record but Richmond has that great backcourt and at only a 2-pt line, I like the value of a getting a 7 seed in just a “win” situation. That’s the early chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

In the late session I like Washington (+2) over Marquette. I know the Pac-10 was simply a bad conference this year, but the two teams at the top (Wash, Cal) can do some damage in this tournament and this is the case of throwing the baby out with the bath water. They have excellent guard play and that’s what you need to win this thing.

Also late I like Wake Forest (+5) to beat Texas. Teams that are on a roll going into the dance tend to stay on a roll, conversely, teams that limp in or back in seem to go out early. The truth is weather someone figured these guys out and gave everyone the blueprint or they just have lost their legs late in the season, they have not looked good for a while and two possession in a tight 8/9 tournament game is too much. That’s the day one chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!


View all of the NCAA Betting Lines here.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Behind enemy lines - Super Bowl XLIV

Yo, this is Nicky the fish and after a grueling 17 week regular schedule, 3 playoff weekends, we’ve finally come to the last skirmish of the war. It’s been a wild ride as were the last two years, as we started really slow this year then caught fire about mid-way through and have played about .650 ball since then. We won’t hit our goal of 70% for the year but after a 2-0 championship weekend we want to finish strong so let’s get to it. Where do you begin to analyze this game? Once Harley’s kick sailed through the uprights the Colts became an immediate 7 point fav, then came the Freeney ankle news, the Wayne’s knee scare, and a clear weather report. Since then the line has moved like a large cap stock down as low as 5 before closing the week at 6. It’s temping to play but if Freeney isn’t 100% and Drew has all day to throw it could be a long day, or what if Raheem Brock has to come in and plays the game of his life? (can you say David Tyree? Is he even in the League anymore?) Either way, and despite Tony Dungy’s prognostication of a double digit Colt’s win, there’s just too many question marks to lay that kind of lumber even though they’re 7-2 ATS their last nine. Conversely, the Saints have not looked good in their last seven games going 1-6 ATS over that span. Where I see the only value is with the over as I don’t think either team is going to be able to stop the other and I expect a Patriot/Panthers type of game with the defenses getting tired come 4th quarter and the game really opens up. The total has gone over in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games even the Jets. So much like the NFC Championship game get your bottle of Jack, a fat Churchill, play the over 56.5 (buy the hook), route for points and enjoy the game! That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
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Sunday, January 24, 2010

Behind enemy lines, Championship Day

Yo, this Nicky and our journey of 1000 miles is now down to three steps we’ve had our usual huge win streak, but got off to just about a .500 start, all in all it’s been a positive year again but we won’t get into the 70’s (67%) like we did last year, but let’s finish strong and then move on to the second half of the NBA season, let’s get to it.

These are some monster lines when it comes to Championship Day, where normally you’re dealing with laying a deuce or a field goal but over a touch on C-Day is pretty big. Clearly what you have are teams that deal in touchdowns not field goals, well except for New York which is the lowest scoring team of the final four, and they have been the bookie’s boy as most of the betting pub has gone against them in the previous two games, including me. I know you don’t normally jump ship this late in the game but the quant data is pretty strong so I’m going to take the Jets (+9 buy the hook). I know it’s a rookie going up against the future Hall member but it’s the Jet Defense that I think will keep this game close by putting pressure on Peyton, particularly on the ends and taking him a bit out of his rhythm. On the quant side, the Jets are 7-1 ATS (7-1 straight up as well) their last 8 games, including 5-0 ATS on the road, and we’re talking in some really hostile environments. Indy has a suspect run defense and we expect the Jets to be able to move the ball on the ground and keep the Colts from getting on one of those 3-score consecutive runs. Indy is 3-6 their last 9 games when playing the Jets, and an awful 1-4 ats at home vs. NY. I don’t think they’ll win on the field but they’ll keep it close and have a pretty good chance for a back door cover as well.


Statline Jets vs. Colts
NYJ TEAM IND
21.8 PTS FOR 26.0
14.8 PTS AGNST 19.2
7.0 DIFF. 6.8
148.8 PASS YDS 282.2
172.3 RUSH YDS 80.9
153.7 PASS D 212.7
98.6 RUSH D 126.5
-0.1 TO DIFF -0.1

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines Divisional Playoff Weekend

Yo, this is Nicky and coming off the split yesterday we need a winner in the late game to finish one-up so let’s get to it. The pattern seems to be obvious that the home teams are holding serve, particularly with teams that have had the extra week to prepare, and I’m not going to stand in front of the freight train, but what does concern me is the “non-ideal” weather conditions in San Diego that may keep this game close. The same questions present themselves today as they did last with regarding Mark Sanchez at QB, but throw more chips in the center of the table as it’s a bigger game AND he’s playing so close to his home town. I went against him last week and I’m going to double up and take the SuperChargers (-8.5 buying the hook). On the other side of the ball the Jets can run, but the SD rush D has been ok this year and even better at home. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Ok, we’re off to a good start in completing my mission to even up our playoff record as the Saints are looking like a good cover right now, so let’s move on to the night game. I understand there’s a mountain of pressure on the Colts to answer for laying down in week 14 instead of going for the perfect season, and they have a terrible record in the playoffs when they are the top seed and have a week to rest, that’s not what concerns me about giving up a touchdown. It’s the fact that the Ravens rush for 137 yards per game and the Colts give up well over 100 so the Ravens may be able to control the clock and keep Peyton on the sideline. Because of that I’m liking the Ravens (+7.5 buy the hook) to keep this one close. I know how much mo’ the Colts will have knowing they don’t have to deal with the Patriots their nemesis, but the Ravens are playing inspired and you know that D is not going to give up that many points so although Indy may win, the question is will they be able to put up enough to cover that number? I don’t think so. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!


Ok, the Pack and the Pats cost us last weekend and we had our first sub .500 weekend in a long time so we gotta get it back this weekend and things only get more difficult but let’s get to it. The first game on Saturday morning is the Cards/Saints matchup where the first thing that comes to your mind is the over, as both of these teams seem to be able to score at will but the betting lines discount everything except acts under God and they’re factoring just that, so the 58 point over is just too high to mess with. Just the same I wouldn’t go the other way as it’s possible this could be a game in the 40’s like last weekend. The Saints have had plenty of time to lament over their last 3 losses and will come out smokin’ in front of a New Orleans crowd that hasn’t hosted a home game since Chuck Muncie was playing tail for em’. I think the Cardinal’s dream of a back-to-back appearance ends this weekend and I know it’s a little lumber, but buy the hook and take the Saints down to -6.5. View the complete stats line for both teams on the main site.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Behind enemy lines WildCard Weekend

Yo, this is Nicky and I’m back for more damage after hitting the NCG for fun! It’s playoff time so we don’t have a whole board to choose from just four games so we really have to do the work to find some value because there’s no one’s flying under the radar anymore, so let’s get to it. Tough calls in these games as the lines are thin so you’re basically pickin’ winners and to start the WC weekend off I like the Bengals (-3) to get redemption for that a$# whippin’ they took in week 17. I’m still not sold on Sanchez winning his first playoff game in the frigid cold of Cincinnati. The Big Cats will be playing with heavy hearts in memory of TH and I think they’ll come out and play with enormous heart. Everyone’s talking about the Jets #1 defense, but their offense sometimes is simply non-existent and that’s something you can’t have in a playoff game, even if you should be the favorite to win the whole thing.

Wow, this second game is tough to call. I know all of the stats about beating a team 3 times in one season but actually it hasn’t been as one sided as you might think as 12 of the 19 have done just that when given the opportunity. Sometimes you just got someone’s number. In this case the Ca’Boys are playing some of the best football of the season at the right time and the Eagles simply have not been matching up well with Dallas and even though the first game was close, in the second game 7 of their 11 drives ended in punts, 1 to, 1 missed fg, and a stop on downs. We’d be asking them to turn everything around even though they’ve showed no ability to do so. On the other side is all of that history where the Ca’Boys haven’t won a playoff game since Dallas was on TV, and Romo, for being such a playboy, is a virgin when it comes to the winning a playoff game, but I think he will get his first taste this weekend. However, this is combat gentlemen and there are no points for second place, and call it a it what you will but I don’t like Dallas giving up over a field goal in this game, so buy the hook down to a FG and play Dallas -3, and don’t be surprised if you push. For a little taste, try a Cincy +4/Eagles +10 tease to cover yourself as playoff time is an excellent time to tease. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Behind enemy lines BCS Championship

Yo, this is Nicky and we’ve got one more game left before we put a great NCAA Football season on ice. We didn’t get off to a good start but caught fire the last 9 weeks of the year so this is my National Championship, let’s get to it. In the BCS Championship Game I like the Tide (-4.5) over the Horns. I know the record of dogs in this game as well as Texas’ success in the Rose Bowl but this isn’t about quantitative data, this game seems to be a simple matchup of oil and water. The Horns simply have not been able to score or move the ball against good defenses, Colt McCoy has not played well in marquis games (3 ints vs. Nebraska in the B-12 final), and good passing attacks have run up HUGE numbers against them (TTech, A&M). They’ve only got wins over two teams with bowl wins this year and I think their impressive stats are built against sub-par opponents. Look for Ingram to have a big rushing game, Julio to have at least one big play, and the Bama’ special teams to control field position. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky. Stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Behind Enemy Lines, Week 17

Yo, this is Nicky back from holidays and a brief vacation paid for with my book’s money as we’ve gone 5-2 our last 7 in the NFL, and ended the season 13-4 in college, sorry for missing New Years Day but as I said, I was on the island, but it’s a complicated Sunday with lots of teams with nothing to play for but let’s jump in the fray. First game you gotta go with the Ravens to cover the 10, buy the hook if you have to, and play them as a win gets them in the playoffs. I’ll tell ya, we’ve only done one teaser this year and hit it, and we don’t do it often but this is a good week to cover ourselves with a tease to guard against teams pulling starters late, so this will also be the first game on the teaser ticket, so the Ravens are the cornerstone for the day.
For the second game let’s stay with the same strategy and play a must win against a team that’s not in contention, the Denver (-10) vs. KC game. I know Marshall is suspended but it won’t make a difference as the Broncos can still get in even if they lose and when I found out this game was played at the same time as the Ravens (Denver can’t get in if the Ravens win) then it became a go. Even if Pittsburgh wins the Broncos can still go so they’ll have something to play for. This will be the second game on the Teaser ticket so it will be Ravens -3.5/Broncos -3.
Lastly, I like the Eagles (+3.5 buy the hook) against the CaBoy’s. It should be a big game in Big D and I know it’s for all the division but if the Eagles come away with the win they’ll get a chance to rest starters on the by week so there is plenty to play for on their side and I think they’ll get it done. Moreover I would really be surprised if this turned out to be more than a 3 point game. Also a great tease to take Philly up. Ok, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.