Saturday, December 19, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines NFL Week 15

Yo, this is Nicky now that College has taken a break for a couple of weeks we got an opportunity to focus on the NFL. Last week the Jags couldn’t convert on turnovers and it cost us an undefeated week as the Chargers turned out NOT to be a bear trap but the easiest game of the year. It’s games like that that make you reconsider the rules, but you never increase your betting units that way if you’re right more than you’re wrong you’ll always have some scratch in the game and live to fight another day. That said, let’s get to this week. I know we don’t normally play under/overs (but we’re 2-0 this year on em’) but one jumps out at me. The over on the Steelers/Packers (40.5), the weather will be bad and that favors the offense because they know where they’re going. Green Bay has only scored less than 21 points one time this year (vs. Dallas) that only leaves 3 scores for a Steeler club that is under so much heat from the press and former players that we’ll all be surprised if they don’t play one of their best games of the year. The thought of them doing so is the only thing that’s keeping me from taking the number.

The second game looks like a ‘bear trap’ just like the chargers did last week but I’ve looked this up and down and can’t see how the Dolphins are GETTING 5 at Tennessee. I know Ronnie Brown is out for the year but we’ve known that for two weeks, and the Fish still seem to keep winning without him including back-to-back upsets of the Patriots and Jags. I mean these are the 6-7 Tennessee Titans correct? Even if they manage to get an entire game out of Vince Young and he doesn’t revert back to his old ways, they still should be getting points at home. I realize their running game has been on fire and they are feeling some mo’ lately but the Fish are fighting for their playoff lives and a loss all but seals their fate based on their schedule. Ok, for you quants, if that’s still not enough, the Dolphins are 5-2 ATS their last 7, and 4-1 straight up. I like the stat line as well. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!`

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12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.