Friday, December 25, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines Week 16

Yo, this is ya boy’ Nicky and I wouldn’t be surprised if I didn’t have a hit out on me the way we’ve been killin’ your book lately, (3-0 last week, off to a 1-0 start this week) but before we get to crazy let’s finish out da’ game. Wow, not even I expected the SuperChargers to take care of us so easily but I did tell ya to hit the money line for a small taste as well, so I hope ya did. The advantage we have now over number is that we have an entire season of stats to work off of, so let’s try to maximize that value. With that in mind I like the Jags (+9) going into New England. I know the Pats are unbeaten at the Razor this year but if there is one thing that the season has illustrated is that the Pats have problems stopping the run, and Jacksonville averages 129 yards on the ground per game. In bad weather look for them to be going to Cool Mo’D early and often and keep this one close. On the qualitative side, the Jags have to win in order to keep their playoff hope alive and the Pats haven’t covered a decent spread since the 07’ season. For you quants, New England is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games, BUT 5-2 ATS their last 7 vs. Jville, of course those were different Patriot teams that this one. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Don’t forget live chat rooms for every game in the NFL on the main page, also visit the Player’s Club chat room to discuss everything from injuries to weather with other playa’s like yourself. You can also view the Smacchat Stat line for this game here..

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Yo, this is Nicky and after a 3-0 weekend last weekend (don’t forget the bonus pick on the site) we’re 4-1 over the last two weekends so let’s keep the mo’ going. The first game I like is the Friday evening game as the Superchargers (+3.5 buy the hook) travel to Tennessee to take on the Titans. I realize this is a must win for the Titans and the Chargers all but have the AFC Weak wrapped up after the Denver choke last week, but SD is the hottest team in the league right now and they’re looking to get home games against everyone except the Colts who they’re not really afraid of. On top of that the Stats also lean their way as the Chargers are 5-2 ATS their last 5, 4-1 on the road, and 5-0 ATS against Tennessee. This is one of those games that’s looks so good on paper that it makes you check injuries and weather, but I can’t see anything talking me of this. Take the points and consider the money line play for chump change. Here’s the stat line.

SMART CHART San Diego at Tennessee
27.8 PTS FOR 22.9
20.2 PTS AGNST 24.8
7.6 DIFF. -1.9
268.9 PASS YDS 198.0
86.2 RUSH YDS 162.6
213.2 PASS D 265.1
116.9 RUSH D 100.4
-0.5 TO DIFF 0.1

San Diego is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines NFL Week 15

Yo, this is Nicky now that College has taken a break for a couple of weeks we got an opportunity to focus on the NFL. Last week the Jags couldn’t convert on turnovers and it cost us an undefeated week as the Chargers turned out NOT to be a bear trap but the easiest game of the year. It’s games like that that make you reconsider the rules, but you never increase your betting units that way if you’re right more than you’re wrong you’ll always have some scratch in the game and live to fight another day. That said, let’s get to this week. I know we don’t normally play under/overs (but we’re 2-0 this year on em’) but one jumps out at me. The over on the Steelers/Packers (40.5), the weather will be bad and that favors the offense because they know where they’re going. Green Bay has only scored less than 21 points one time this year (vs. Dallas) that only leaves 3 scores for a Steeler club that is under so much heat from the press and former players that we’ll all be surprised if they don’t play one of their best games of the year. The thought of them doing so is the only thing that’s keeping me from taking the number.

The second game looks like a ‘bear trap’ just like the chargers did last week but I’ve looked this up and down and can’t see how the Dolphins are GETTING 5 at Tennessee. I know Ronnie Brown is out for the year but we’ve known that for two weeks, and the Fish still seem to keep winning without him including back-to-back upsets of the Patriots and Jags. I mean these are the 6-7 Tennessee Titans correct? Even if they manage to get an entire game out of Vince Young and he doesn’t revert back to his old ways, they still should be getting points at home. I realize their running game has been on fire and they are feeling some mo’ lately but the Fish are fighting for their playoff lives and a loss all but seals their fate based on their schedule. Ok, for you quants, if that’s still not enough, the Dolphins are 5-2 ATS their last 7, and 4-1 straight up. I like the stat line as well. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!`

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines week 14

This is Nicky, back for more work but I must say I’m sorry to see college go the way were playing at the end so now we have to make our steak with the big dogs so let’s get to it. Firstly, I like the Jags (-2) to hold serve against the Dolphins. This is a huge game of the Jags as they have to take 2 of their last four and this one at home is one they need to get. The Jags are 4-1 in their last 5 straight up and the fish are 2-4 ATS on the road and I think that trend will continue.

One game that looks so good that I feared the bear trap was San Diego (+3) at Dallas. I realize home field gives you and extra 3 on the line and the Ca’Boys are in a must win but laying a tre against a team that could win on the field seems like real value to me. If this game were in SoCal the Super Chargers would be laying 7+ and I don’t think the Cowboys’ new home makes that big of a difference even if they have 100k standing outside. SD has won seven straight games and are right up there with the Colts and Saints as the hottest team in football. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines Championship Week

Yo, this is Nicky back for more action in the NFL had to get some more math done as after getting off to the good start on Thursday night we’re under water for the weekend so let’s find some value. I know we’ve only played one u/o for the year and we hit it, and now I’m going to try and got 2 for 2 as I like the under in the Giants/CaBoy game. The first time these two teams met the tallied 64 points between them and 75% of the time when teams play for the second time in the season the game total goes the other way. Furthermore the total has gone under in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games.
23.2............PTS FOR.........24.7
16.5............PTS AGNST.......23.7
254.1...........PASS YDS........247.9
138.0...........RUSH YDS........126.8
224.9...........PASS D..........182.6
102.7...........RUSH D..........107.8
0.3.............TO DIFF.........0.0

Yo this is Nicky and I owe you one for going 0-2 (12-4 last 16) last weekend so I figured we’d get started early, but I like what I see on Thursday on here’s why. Oregon State has only lost one game all year by 10 points and that was to #5 Cincinnati. Also, Oregon gives up over 100 yards per game on the ground (130) which means OState will be able to move the ball and should be able to come close to their average of 32 points per game. I know the Ducks can score but I can’t see them putting up enough to cover double digits in a rivalry game so I like Oregon State (+10.5 buy the hook). For all of you quants, Oregon State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games, and 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road.
32.4............PTS FOR.........37.7
22.2............PTS AGNST.......22.7
272.5...........PASS YD.........187.5
149.7...........RUSH YDS........231.4
242.1...........PASS D..........193.4
98.5............RUSH D..........130.6
-0.4............TO DIFF.........-0
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.