Saturday, November 21, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines Week 11

This is Nicky, and we hit our college game yesterday with Zona and the points improving our run in college to 12-2 our last 14, now let’s turn our focus to the NFL. Firstly, I’m still bitter at the Broncos for messing us up last weekend but the books shouldn’t be the only ones to benefit from the misfortunes of the Mile High City, so I’m going to sell short based on Chris Simms’ inability to move the offense and take the Chargers minus a ton (-6.5, buy the hook to 6). I would be surprised if the Broncos got into the end zone at all in this game. Here’s the statline:

The second pick of the weekend are the Jags (-8) hosting the coach less Bills. The ether of playing for a new coach and ‘turning over a new leaf’ will last for about a quarter until they realize they can’t score the football. The Jags (5-4) realize they have not only a shot at salvaging their season but actually making the playoffs but they must get the ‘W’ in a gimme game like this one. They’ll show up and take care of business. Here’s the statline:

The last game I like is for the Pats (-10, buy the hook) to punish the Jets at the Razor. I’m not even going to bring up the 4th and 2, you’ll make your own opinion on how they’re going to rebound after that game, but the stats on Bill’s Patriots losing two in a row, two to the same team, home games in November warrants a 14.5 point line, furthermore the NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games, 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games on the road, while the Pats are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games when playing NY Jets, so I’ll take it at two scores and bet that the Rookie Sanchez has an absolutely rude introduction to the Razor. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

Yo, this is Nicky and the way we’ve been rollin’ in the NCAA (11-2 our last 13) we should not try to out think ourselves but the this is a really tough week so stick to the fundamentals. That kept us out of disaster last Sunday when we felt so strong about Denver, and I know you can’t do anything when you get hit with an injury but that’s why you always play even units and never ‘load up’ regardless of how good it looks. There’s nothing on the board that jumped out at me and screamed value but I do like a home dog that I think can win on the field so take Zona (+6.5, buy it if you have to) against Oregon. I know how potent Oregon is and that they’re going for a Rose Bowl birth with a win, but Arizona only gives up 100 yards on the ground and they could slow the Ducks down. Also the Cats are a good home team and Stoops will have them ready to play spoiler. They may not win on the field but this will be close and I feel better getting than giving in this one. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

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12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.