Friday, November 6, 2009

Behind Enemy lines NCAA week 9/ NFL

Now that injury reports are in we can make a good assessment of the Sunday night game and I like the over (49.5 buy the .5 if you’re at 50) in the Dallas/Philly game. I was contemplating laying the 3 but there is way too much quant data pointing towards the over:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
So quite a few indicators point towards the over and I’m not swimming against the tide. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in ring and keep your gloves up!

Yo, this is Nicky back for more action after a 2-0 day in the NCAA so let’s try to keep the mo’ going into Sunday. I see a lot of value in getting more than a field goal with the Chargers (+4.5) at the Giants. I know the GMen have lost three straight but San Diego is playing really well right now and they can win this on the field let alone keep it close. This is also a great teaser game.

Yo, This is Nicky, for the third week in a row we’ve done at least 2-1 on the college board so thinks are starting to play true to form, so let’s try to find some value on the board. Although they’re unbeaten I’m still not sold on the Hawkeyes and although Northwestern is not a great club I think 15.5 is too much lumber for Iowa to cover, even at home. I realize Iowa is 9-1 ats in conference their last 10 but they haven’t looked good even at home and I’m going to go against the tape in this one.

Another game where I see some value is the under on the Notre Dame/Navy Game (under 56.5) I know I typically go the other way with the Irish as I think there is typically too much ‘dumb money’ no them but hear me out. Navy is 1-12 ATS their last 13 against the Irish and they only pass for an average on 71 yards per game, and that’s against bad competition. ND will go eight in the box and force them out of the option which will make it tough for the Midshipmen to put it in the endzone. It’s just too much lumber to lay on ND and I can’t trust the Irish as they are 1-6 ATS in its last 7, and 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home, so the under is the obvious choice. That’s the chowder for Saturday I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

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12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.