Friday, November 27, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines Rivalry Week in College Football

Yo, this is Nicky and we got shutout yesterday on the college boards and I apologize for the Ok State farce, but let’s try to get it back on the NFL. The first game I like are the Texans (+3.5) at home against the Colts. The Texans kinda got the Colts number and played them tough in Indy in the first game just missing a filed goal to win it on the last play of the game. Houston is a good home team and I love them as a home dog. Here’s the Statline:

This is the Nicky, and we come into rivalry week with a 12-2 mark in our last 14 games and I like what I see on the board this year. What we’ve seen so far in the rivalry games is the pattern of the favorites not covering (Texas, Bama, Pitt) so we have to be real careful laying big lumber but here’s where I see some value. I like Oklahoma St (+7.5) at Oklahoma even though I know it looks like a bear trap. Set aside the fact that a number 12 team is playing an unranked team and GETTING points but the Ok defense is not the Sooner D from previous years so even without Bryant or Deion’s services they will still be able to move the ball. Offensively Bradford is just thinking about staying healthy and playing on Sundays and it’s affected the entire offense. I like the Cowboys to possibly win this on the field so I’ll take more than a touchdown, this makes an excellent teaser game as well.

I’m going to take a fav in the second game as I like Stanford (-9.5 buy the hook) to send Charlie out a loser in his last game at Notre Dame. The Cardinal are probably the most underrated team in the NCAA because of their past and a non-intimidating offense. They don’t spread the field or beat you with speed, they just line up and punch you in the mouth with a Rocky Blier style tailback. These guys can play, take it and bit it. Here’s the stat line, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your glove’s up! back with you tomorrow.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines Week 11

This is Nicky, and we hit our college game yesterday with Zona and the points improving our run in college to 12-2 our last 14, now let’s turn our focus to the NFL. Firstly, I’m still bitter at the Broncos for messing us up last weekend but the books shouldn’t be the only ones to benefit from the misfortunes of the Mile High City, so I’m going to sell short based on Chris Simms’ inability to move the offense and take the Chargers minus a ton (-6.5, buy the hook to 6). I would be surprised if the Broncos got into the end zone at all in this game. Here’s the statline:

The second pick of the weekend are the Jags (-8) hosting the coach less Bills. The ether of playing for a new coach and ‘turning over a new leaf’ will last for about a quarter until they realize they can’t score the football. The Jags (5-4) realize they have not only a shot at salvaging their season but actually making the playoffs but they must get the ‘W’ in a gimme game like this one. They’ll show up and take care of business. Here’s the statline:

The last game I like is for the Pats (-10, buy the hook) to punish the Jets at the Razor. I’m not even going to bring up the 4th and 2, you’ll make your own opinion on how they’re going to rebound after that game, but the stats on Bill’s Patriots losing two in a row, two to the same team, home games in November warrants a 14.5 point line, furthermore the NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games, 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games on the road, while the Pats are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games when playing NY Jets, so I’ll take it at two scores and bet that the Rookie Sanchez has an absolutely rude introduction to the Razor. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

Yo, this is Nicky and the way we’ve been rollin’ in the NCAA (11-2 our last 13) we should not try to out think ourselves but the this is a really tough week so stick to the fundamentals. That kept us out of disaster last Sunday when we felt so strong about Denver, and I know you can’t do anything when you get hit with an injury but that’s why you always play even units and never ‘load up’ regardless of how good it looks. There’s nothing on the board that jumped out at me and screamed value but I do like a home dog that I think can win on the field so take Zona (+6.5, buy it if you have to) against Oregon. I know how potent Oregon is and that they’re going for a Rose Bowl birth with a win, but Arizona only gives up 100 yards on the ground and they could slow the Ducks down. Also the Cats are a good home team and Stoops will have them ready to play spoiler. They may not win on the field but this will be close and I feel better getting than giving in this one. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Behind enemy lines NCAA week 10

Another 2-0 day in college football means we’re 11-2 our last 13, let’s keep the mo’ going into the NFL. To start off I know our first rule is always to keep even units, what ever it is. Never put any more value in one game than another as you always have the same chance of getting bit. However if there ever was a game that I felt more strongly than normal it is the Broncos (-3, buy the .5) going into Washington. When I looked at this I would have laid 7 or 8 and was fearing the ‘bear trap’ when I saw the line, but it’s still a go. The Broncos’ lead in the West is down to 1 game of the Chargers who are on a roll right now and this would be 3 losses in a row for Denver.

In the late game I like the Patriots (+3.5 buy the .3) at Indy. I know the Colts are unbeaten and a monster at home, but they’re nursing injuries at some key positions. They’ll be starting 2 rookie corners and no Bob Sanders against the number two offense in the league which usually is a recipe for disaster. The Pats are finally clicking offensively and are looking like the pats of 07’. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Here’s the statline:

I’m going to start off with another dog with the Stanford Cardinal (+11) on the road at USC. I know everyone remembers the upset and that might be some motivation for the men of troy but the Cardinal run the ball extremely well (211 per game) and will be able to keep SC’s offense off the field. Did you ever think you would see the day when Stanford gained more yards on the ground than USC? I think that’s a pretty big number for a team that controls the ball and doesn’t turn it over.

Next, I like Pittsburgh (-6.5, buy the .5 point) against ND. I looked at this and couldn’t figure out how it was only a touch. I realize that ND needs to become bowl eligible but Pitt needs this win to get a BCS bowl! The numbers all lean Pitts way and I can’t find a reason why ND should be within 2 scores. I realize the Big East is soft this year but then again so is ND’s schedule and they haven’t even done that well with it. Here’s the stat line, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, November 6, 2009

Behind Enemy lines NCAA week 9/ NFL

Now that injury reports are in we can make a good assessment of the Sunday night game and I like the over (49.5 buy the .5 if you’re at 50) in the Dallas/Philly game. I was contemplating laying the 3 but there is way too much quant data pointing towards the over:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
So quite a few indicators point towards the over and I’m not swimming against the tide. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in ring and keep your gloves up!

Yo, this is Nicky back for more action after a 2-0 day in the NCAA so let’s try to keep the mo’ going into Sunday. I see a lot of value in getting more than a field goal with the Chargers (+4.5) at the Giants. I know the GMen have lost three straight but San Diego is playing really well right now and they can win this on the field let alone keep it close. This is also a great teaser game.

Yo, This is Nicky, for the third week in a row we’ve done at least 2-1 on the college board so thinks are starting to play true to form, so let’s try to find some value on the board. Although they’re unbeaten I’m still not sold on the Hawkeyes and although Northwestern is not a great club I think 15.5 is too much lumber for Iowa to cover, even at home. I realize Iowa is 9-1 ats in conference their last 10 but they haven’t looked good even at home and I’m going to go against the tape in this one.

Another game where I see some value is the under on the Notre Dame/Navy Game (under 56.5) I know I typically go the other way with the Irish as I think there is typically too much ‘dumb money’ no them but hear me out. Navy is 1-12 ATS their last 13 against the Irish and they only pass for an average on 71 yards per game, and that’s against bad competition. ND will go eight in the box and force them out of the option which will make it tough for the Midshipmen to put it in the endzone. It’s just too much lumber to lay on ND and I can’t trust the Irish as they are 1-6 ATS in its last 7, and 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home, so the under is the obvious choice. That’s the chowder for Saturday I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.