Saturday, October 17, 2009

Behind enemy lines

Ok, we finally had the 3-0 week we’ve been looking for in college as OU, UK and Iowa came through, let’s try to keep the mo’ going in the pros. This is a tough year to navigate through because it’s been a long time since we’ve seen such a disparity between the top teams and the feeder fish. This results in huge lines and tough to find real value. I know the “Pro betters” how’s that for an oxymoron, say that teasers are a sucker bet because of the juice, but if you take a couple of good teams down like Pittsburgh and Philly it makes those lines a lot more reasonable. Anyway, we’re here to discuss the straight bets and here’s where I see value on Sunday. I will take the Chiefs (+6) against the Redskins even though they’re on the road. It is the first time in history that a team has faced a winless team for 6 consecutive weeks, and all they can muster with that weak schedule is 2-3? This game should be -2 tops but 6? Take it and bid it. Click here to see the statline:

I will take the bait, and lay a HUGE number with Pittsburgh (-13.5 buy the .5 point) against the Browns. Anderson and that offense are so bad it’s tough to fathom. After a 2-14 passing day last weekend, I know he’ll get better but going into the Ketchup Kingdom? The Browns could seriously get shut out in this game and I’d be afraid to go the other way. Click here to see the statline:

In the last game I like the Bengals (-5.5) to beat up the Texans. Houston simply is not a good team this year and the Bengals are a fluke away from being considered one of the best. Blackout or not, they will be tough at home and they know they need to put his game in the win column because of their upcoming schedule. Here’s the stat line, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in ring and keep your gloves up!
________________________________College Week 6_______________________________

Yo, this is Nicky, and we did ok on the college board last week thanks to Iowa and Washington takin’ care of biznis’ but even though we did the math, we got the wrong answer on Georgia so we’re still in search of a perfect college day so let’s get to it. I normally try to stay out of the mire but I think they’re giving Texas too much credit by asking them to win by more than a field goal, as the Sooners match up with them pretty well statistically. I like OU (+4) as there is more value there. I do believe they can win on the field and the field goal cushion gives us some room for error.
Next we move to the SEC where I like UK as I think 14.5 is way too much for Auburn to cover even at home. Kentucky has proven its no doormat this year, averages over 34 points per game, over 325 yards in offense per game in the SEC, and can play teams close even on the road. Here is the stat line:

Lastly, I’m going back to the well with IOWA (+3) against Wisconsin. I was impressed with the Badgers when the spotlight was on them in a big game (OSU) too many turnovers and against a disciplined team like the Hawkeyes that will kill you. Here’s the stat line to go with it, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

What game to you think offers the best value? Is there a game you what some information on? Let us know here and in the Player's Club Chat Room.

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12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.