Saturday, October 31, 2009

Behind Enemy lines week 8

Well the Giants didn’t show up last week for us and it cost us a sub-par Sunday and made for an even weekend last week so we’ve got some work to do. We had a decent 2-1 day in college on Saturday so let’s shoot for at least a 4-2 weekend and double our money. The first game I see with some value is the Buffalo Bills (+3.5) at home vs. the Texans. I know I hate betting on bad teams but I like a home dog, bad weather, and a defense that can keep them in the game. Both teams have won two straight and I see this as a field goal game. I don’t think either one is good enough to beat the other by more than a touchdown.

Next I like Ravens (-3, buy down to 2.5) at home against the Broncos. I’m one of those who still believes the they’re the worst 6-0 team in the history of the NFL and are waiting for them to come down to earth. A couple of years back an unbeaten Patriots team went into Baltimore and were lucky to get out with a win that some say the didn’t get even today. This Denver team is not in the same universe as that Pats team and the Ravens have a way of getting up for marquis games, and is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver.

Lastly, I’m going to go with the Ca’Boys (-9.5 buy down to 9)over the Seachickens it’s not so much my faith in Romo as much as how well they’re playing protecting their new house (7-2 SU in its last 9, and 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home)and how bad Seattle is on the road. The Boys’ are also 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle, so a little ownership. That's the chowder for this week, I'm Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

Yo, this is Nicky back for more damage after a 2-1 weekend last week (Ole Miss cost us) and 5-1 over the last two weeks, we finally got a little momentum so let’s keep it going this week. It’s a tough week to call out there as it’s that time of year that you have to factor in all of the whether and injuries. With that in mind the first pick of the weekend is the under on ND/Washington St (-60.5, buy the .5) I know we haven’t played an under in a while but hear me out. Washington only averages 14 points per game with most of those coming during bench clearing time. The only question here is how much is Jimmy Clausen going to throw as he’s still in the Heisman race. Not enough to drop a fiddy spot so I like the under. Also ND has only covered once has a favorite this year and that was against Nevada on opening day, otherwise they’re 0-5. If that trend holds then who is going to score over 30 to get the over?

Next I like the Trojans (-3, buy down to 2.5) going up to Eugene to take one the Ducks. This is the biggest game in the Pac-10 this year and I realize how much of a roll O is on but they are just too banged up to stop the USC on offense. Their secondary is so depleted they had to ask a red-shirt to suit up. They face quite the dilemma as they can’t go 8 in the box to stop the run (SC averages 198 yards per game on the ground) because of the secondary and they can’t send help to cover the SC speed or size at the skill positions because of the running game. Now you stat lovers aren’t going to like this call as Oregon is 4-0 ATS against P-10 opponents and have covered 5 straight games, but you can’t quantify injuries.

The last game I like is Texas Tech (-7, buy down to 6.5) the Aggies lead the nation in passing and score plenty to cover this number. A win makes them bowl eligible and they cover well when playing within the conference at 7-3ATS, including 6-1 against Kansas their last 7 games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!
Who do you like on Saturday? Bounce your ideas off Nicky, and other player's in the Player's Club chat rooms.
See all of the up to date betting lines here.

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12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.