Friday, October 23, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines Week 7 College/nfl week 6

Ok, I’m back to do more damage and we’ve finally gotten on the roll we were looking for. We followed up a 3-0 college weekend with a 2-1 day yesterday. Now we working on a 2-1 NFL week last week so let’s get to it. This week is tough because the teams we like to win are laying some huge lumber so we need to be selective and get the most value. One game I really like is the Gmen (-7, buy it down to 6.5). I like the fact that their coming off a loss, that we’ve got a warm weather team playing in terrible conditions, and very late game for them. On the quant side it looks good for the GMen as the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, 5-1 SU in their last 6, NY is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home, and lastly the Giants are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games at home.

Next, I’m going to ask you to get out the chain saw and lay a bunch of lumber with the Colts (-14, buy it to under 2 tds to 13.5). The Lambs are so bad they are like a division I school right now, Freeny is coming back making the to Colt D and entirely different team and even though they’re on the road it’s still in a dome game. The numbers like them as well as Indy is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road, 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road, and 4-1 ATS their last 5 overall.

Laslty, I’m going to take the Vikings +6.5 against the Steelers. I know AD is probable and Troy is going to play but that’s a ton of points for a team that turns the ball over as much as Pittsburgh does and that can not seem to close games out this year. What does scare me is a dome team going outside but Favre is pretty well accustomed to bad weather. The numbers tilt the Vikings way as well as they are 4-2 ATS in its last 6, 5-0 SU in its last 5 games, and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road. On the other side Pitt is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
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Yo, this is Nicky and it may have taken 6 weeks but we finally had our first 3-0 college weekend (we also went 2-1 in the NFL), now the objective is to keep the mo’ going, but as the season gets longer we have the advantage as the surprises should be less frequent. That said, I see some value in 3 of the games on Saturday so let’s get to it. Firstly, I like Texas (-12) at Missouri. Ok, based on records I would take the home dog but when you dig a little deeper you see that Mizzu has only beaten bad teams (Nevada, Furman, Bowling Green) and gotten whacked when they played anyone half decent (Nebraska, Oklahoma St). Also for you quants, Mizzu is 0-5 vs. Texas their last 5 meetings.

Another game that looks like there is some good value is Arizona(-7 buy the hook if have to) against UCLA. Arizona is a very good home team while UCLA is terrible on the road (2-9 last 11). Moreover Arizona is 6-2 in its last 8 games (5-0 at home), and the Cats are 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing UCLA. UCLA also has that deadly combination of being ranked 101st in nation in total offense and 79th against the run on defense. I was surprised this line wasn’t 10 but I’ll take it at a touch and this game makes for a great teaser as well.

Lastly, I really like Arkansas (+6.5) at Ole Miss. The Rebels look to be a bit of a fraud as they paded their stats with the feeder fish on their schedule ( UAB, Vandy, Southeastern Louisiana) but got smoked in their only two SEC games (SC, Bama) by an average of 26 points. Ole Miss is also 0-5 ATS when playing Arkansas. Meanwhile the Razorbacks keep most games close with the exception of the Alabama game, have covered three straight games and are 14th in the nation in total scoring offense. Exactly what you want when you’re getting points. Ok, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

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12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.