Sunday, October 4, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines October 2-3

Yo, this is Nicky back to do more damage as the League this week. This ball didn’t bounce our way last week as we not only got “pick 6’ed” but “back doored”, as the Ca’Boys took our victory away so we have to try and get that back this week so let’s get to it. To start off, I like the Saints (-7) to end the Jets unbeaten streak. Sanchez has proven he can handle the NFL pressure and can make the throws but I think the honeymoon comes to an end this Sunday and not only do the Saints stop him but put some points on the board and win this by more than a touch. On the quant side New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets. Here’s the stat line:

21.3 PTS FOR 40.0
11.0 PTS AGNST 18.7
10.3 DIFF. 21.3
185.0 PASS YDS 267.3
130.0 RUSH YDS 170.7
173.3 PASS D 245.3
82.7 RUSH D 67.0
-1.0 TO DIFF -1.3

Also, I like Green Bay (+4) to go on and give the Vikings all they can handle in the first annual “Favre Bowl”. They may even win this one on the field, and spotting them more than a field goal is way too much juice. I like the way the trend line reads as Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota, 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota, and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota. Here’s the stat line for all of you quants that are asking for it, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
27.0 PTS FOR 29.3
21.0 PTS AGNST 19.0
6.0 DIFF. 10.3
207.3 PASS YDS 173.7
105.7 RUSH YDS 143.7
207.0 PASS D 167.7
128.7 RUSH D 92.0
-2.7 TO DIFF -1.3

Ok, we’re coming off a 2-1 weekend in college football last week and making our way back to black numbers so let’s get to week 5. Our first game is a fraud exposure game where LSU does not appear top be fooling anyone. How can a top 5 team be getting points? I know it’s a road game in the SEC but c’mon you’re LSU with the most National Championships in this decade! I was hoping for a fat line in this one when I saw it early in the week and I was willing to give less than a touchdown so at Georgia -3 (by the hook if your book has it) will have to do. I like this value as a SEC home team not asking to win by more than a field goal. Here is the stat line:

Next, I like Arizona St. (-5) at home against Oregon St. who is a terrible road team in the Pac-10. Arizona St. has been battle tested by road games in the SEC (a game which they should have won) and I just don’t see OSU keeping this one within a touchdown in Tempe. Az. St. could easily be 3-0 and is opening up their Pac-10 season with the students back in school now. The stat line reads a similar story.

Lastly, I like Indiana (+18.5) getting a ton of points at home against Ohio State. I’m actually surprised at the amount of respect that OSU is getting. Indy is a 3-1 team with their only loss coming at the Big House by 3. I was prepared to take a touchdown in this game but +18 is some real value. The Hoosiers have good team speed which could neutralize Pryor’s double threat. Check the injury report prior to kickoff and if there is nothing major on the board for Indiana, this could be a game where your drinkin’ at half-time. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

No comments:

12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.