Saturday, October 10, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines October 10

Turning to the NFL there’s a couple of late games that look like there is some good value. Firstly, I like the 49’ers basically playing straight up at home against the Falcons. Frank Gore is back and the Niners have been playing exceptionally well on defense. For you fans of quant analysis, Atlanta is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco and the Niners are 10-1 straight up at at home against the Falcons.

Hey this is Nicky, we still have not had the sweep week yet this year and need to get healthy, we’re on the comeback trail and we see some value on the board so let’s get to it. Starting in the SEC with JV game as the Varsity game (FLA/LSU) is too hot to touch as Ole Miss (+5) hosting Bama. I know the Rebels are licking their wounds for being sent to Siberia after dropping a tough SEC home loss. I love getting more than a field goal in the SEC and I love home dogs. True Ole Miss is 0-5 vs. Bama the last 5 but they have other quant data going their way as they are 9-1 SU in its last 10 games Mississippi is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home, and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Alabama.

Staying in the SEC, I’ve looked this line up and down, checked the injury reports and still can’t figure out how Georgia is getting points at Rocky Top. Take the point with the Bulldogs, this looks like an excellent game to tease as well. It all depends on Georgia’s mental state, but they also know one more loss and any outside hopes of a decent bowl let alone a BCS bid are gone.

Moving on to the Pac-10, another game that seems like it could be a bear trap but I love Washington (+3.5) at home against Arizona. Huskie Stadium is a tough place to play as USC found out, and the weather will not be conducive to a warm weather team. Take Washington and the points. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

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12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.