Saturday, October 31, 2009

Behind Enemy lines week 8

Well the Giants didn’t show up last week for us and it cost us a sub-par Sunday and made for an even weekend last week so we’ve got some work to do. We had a decent 2-1 day in college on Saturday so let’s shoot for at least a 4-2 weekend and double our money. The first game I see with some value is the Buffalo Bills (+3.5) at home vs. the Texans. I know I hate betting on bad teams but I like a home dog, bad weather, and a defense that can keep them in the game. Both teams have won two straight and I see this as a field goal game. I don’t think either one is good enough to beat the other by more than a touchdown.

Next I like Ravens (-3, buy down to 2.5) at home against the Broncos. I’m one of those who still believes the they’re the worst 6-0 team in the history of the NFL and are waiting for them to come down to earth. A couple of years back an unbeaten Patriots team went into Baltimore and were lucky to get out with a win that some say the didn’t get even today. This Denver team is not in the same universe as that Pats team and the Ravens have a way of getting up for marquis games, and is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver.

Lastly, I’m going to go with the Ca’Boys (-9.5 buy down to 9)over the Seachickens it’s not so much my faith in Romo as much as how well they’re playing protecting their new house (7-2 SU in its last 9, and 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home)and how bad Seattle is on the road. The Boys’ are also 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle, so a little ownership. That's the chowder for this week, I'm Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

Yo, this is Nicky back for more damage after a 2-1 weekend last week (Ole Miss cost us) and 5-1 over the last two weeks, we finally got a little momentum so let’s keep it going this week. It’s a tough week to call out there as it’s that time of year that you have to factor in all of the whether and injuries. With that in mind the first pick of the weekend is the under on ND/Washington St (-60.5, buy the .5) I know we haven’t played an under in a while but hear me out. Washington only averages 14 points per game with most of those coming during bench clearing time. The only question here is how much is Jimmy Clausen going to throw as he’s still in the Heisman race. Not enough to drop a fiddy spot so I like the under. Also ND has only covered once has a favorite this year and that was against Nevada on opening day, otherwise they’re 0-5. If that trend holds then who is going to score over 30 to get the over?

Next I like the Trojans (-3, buy down to 2.5) going up to Eugene to take one the Ducks. This is the biggest game in the Pac-10 this year and I realize how much of a roll O is on but they are just too banged up to stop the USC on offense. Their secondary is so depleted they had to ask a red-shirt to suit up. They face quite the dilemma as they can’t go 8 in the box to stop the run (SC averages 198 yards per game on the ground) because of the secondary and they can’t send help to cover the SC speed or size at the skill positions because of the running game. Now you stat lovers aren’t going to like this call as Oregon is 4-0 ATS against P-10 opponents and have covered 5 straight games, but you can’t quantify injuries.

The last game I like is Texas Tech (-7, buy down to 6.5) the Aggies lead the nation in passing and score plenty to cover this number. A win makes them bowl eligible and they cover well when playing within the conference at 7-3ATS, including 6-1 against Kansas their last 7 games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!
Who do you like on Saturday? Bounce your ideas off Nicky, and other player's in the Player's Club chat rooms.
See all of the up to date betting lines here.


Friday, October 23, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines Week 7 College/nfl week 6

Ok, I’m back to do more damage and we’ve finally gotten on the roll we were looking for. We followed up a 3-0 college weekend with a 2-1 day yesterday. Now we working on a 2-1 NFL week last week so let’s get to it. This week is tough because the teams we like to win are laying some huge lumber so we need to be selective and get the most value. One game I really like is the Gmen (-7, buy it down to 6.5). I like the fact that their coming off a loss, that we’ve got a warm weather team playing in terrible conditions, and very late game for them. On the quant side it looks good for the GMen as the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, 5-1 SU in their last 6, NY is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home, and lastly the Giants are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games at home.

Next, I’m going to ask you to get out the chain saw and lay a bunch of lumber with the Colts (-14, buy it to under 2 tds to 13.5). The Lambs are so bad they are like a division I school right now, Freeny is coming back making the to Colt D and entirely different team and even though they’re on the road it’s still in a dome game. The numbers like them as well as Indy is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road, 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road, and 4-1 ATS their last 5 overall.

Laslty, I’m going to take the Vikings +6.5 against the Steelers. I know AD is probable and Troy is going to play but that’s a ton of points for a team that turns the ball over as much as Pittsburgh does and that can not seem to close games out this year. What does scare me is a dome team going outside but Favre is pretty well accustomed to bad weather. The numbers tilt the Vikings way as well as they are 4-2 ATS in its last 6, 5-0 SU in its last 5 games, and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road. On the other side Pitt is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
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Yo, this is Nicky and it may have taken 6 weeks but we finally had our first 3-0 college weekend (we also went 2-1 in the NFL), now the objective is to keep the mo’ going, but as the season gets longer we have the advantage as the surprises should be less frequent. That said, I see some value in 3 of the games on Saturday so let’s get to it. Firstly, I like Texas (-12) at Missouri. Ok, based on records I would take the home dog but when you dig a little deeper you see that Mizzu has only beaten bad teams (Nevada, Furman, Bowling Green) and gotten whacked when they played anyone half decent (Nebraska, Oklahoma St). Also for you quants, Mizzu is 0-5 vs. Texas their last 5 meetings.

Another game that looks like there is some good value is Arizona(-7 buy the hook if have to) against UCLA. Arizona is a very good home team while UCLA is terrible on the road (2-9 last 11). Moreover Arizona is 6-2 in its last 8 games (5-0 at home), and the Cats are 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing UCLA. UCLA also has that deadly combination of being ranked 101st in nation in total offense and 79th against the run on defense. I was surprised this line wasn’t 10 but I’ll take it at a touch and this game makes for a great teaser as well.

Lastly, I really like Arkansas (+6.5) at Ole Miss. The Rebels look to be a bit of a fraud as they paded their stats with the feeder fish on their schedule ( UAB, Vandy, Southeastern Louisiana) but got smoked in their only two SEC games (SC, Bama) by an average of 26 points. Ole Miss is also 0-5 ATS when playing Arkansas. Meanwhile the Razorbacks keep most games close with the exception of the Alabama game, have covered three straight games and are 14th in the nation in total scoring offense. Exactly what you want when you’re getting points. Ok, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Behind enemy lines

Ok, we finally had the 3-0 week we’ve been looking for in college as OU, UK and Iowa came through, let’s try to keep the mo’ going in the pros. This is a tough year to navigate through because it’s been a long time since we’ve seen such a disparity between the top teams and the feeder fish. This results in huge lines and tough to find real value. I know the “Pro betters” how’s that for an oxymoron, say that teasers are a sucker bet because of the juice, but if you take a couple of good teams down like Pittsburgh and Philly it makes those lines a lot more reasonable. Anyway, we’re here to discuss the straight bets and here’s where I see value on Sunday. I will take the Chiefs (+6) against the Redskins even though they’re on the road. It is the first time in history that a team has faced a winless team for 6 consecutive weeks, and all they can muster with that weak schedule is 2-3? This game should be -2 tops but 6? Take it and bid it. Click here to see the statline:

I will take the bait, and lay a HUGE number with Pittsburgh (-13.5 buy the .5 point) against the Browns. Anderson and that offense are so bad it’s tough to fathom. After a 2-14 passing day last weekend, I know he’ll get better but going into the Ketchup Kingdom? The Browns could seriously get shut out in this game and I’d be afraid to go the other way. Click here to see the statline:

In the last game I like the Bengals (-5.5) to beat up the Texans. Houston simply is not a good team this year and the Bengals are a fluke away from being considered one of the best. Blackout or not, they will be tough at home and they know they need to put his game in the win column because of their upcoming schedule. Here’s the stat line, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in ring and keep your gloves up!
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Yo, this is Nicky, and we did ok on the college board last week thanks to Iowa and Washington takin’ care of biznis’ but even though we did the math, we got the wrong answer on Georgia so we’re still in search of a perfect college day so let’s get to it. I normally try to stay out of the mire but I think they’re giving Texas too much credit by asking them to win by more than a field goal, as the Sooners match up with them pretty well statistically. I like OU (+4) as there is more value there. I do believe they can win on the field and the field goal cushion gives us some room for error.
Next we move to the SEC where I like UK as I think 14.5 is way too much for Auburn to cover even at home. Kentucky has proven its no doormat this year, averages over 34 points per game, over 325 yards in offense per game in the SEC, and can play teams close even on the road. Here is the stat line:

Lastly, I’m going back to the well with IOWA (+3) against Wisconsin. I was impressed with the Badgers when the spotlight was on them in a big game (OSU) too many turnovers and against a disciplined team like the Hawkeyes that will kill you. Here’s the stat line to go with it, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

What game to you think offers the best value? Is there a game you what some information on? Let us know here and in the Player's Club Chat Room.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines October 10

Turning to the NFL there’s a couple of late games that look like there is some good value. Firstly, I like the 49’ers basically playing straight up at home against the Falcons. Frank Gore is back and the Niners have been playing exceptionally well on defense. For you fans of quant analysis, Atlanta is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco and the Niners are 10-1 straight up at at home against the Falcons.

Hey this is Nicky, we still have not had the sweep week yet this year and need to get healthy, we’re on the comeback trail and we see some value on the board so let’s get to it. Starting in the SEC with JV game as the Varsity game (FLA/LSU) is too hot to touch as Ole Miss (+5) hosting Bama. I know the Rebels are licking their wounds for being sent to Siberia after dropping a tough SEC home loss. I love getting more than a field goal in the SEC and I love home dogs. True Ole Miss is 0-5 vs. Bama the last 5 but they have other quant data going their way as they are 9-1 SU in its last 10 games Mississippi is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home, and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Alabama.

Staying in the SEC, I’ve looked this line up and down, checked the injury reports and still can’t figure out how Georgia is getting points at Rocky Top. Take the point with the Bulldogs, this looks like an excellent game to tease as well. It all depends on Georgia’s mental state, but they also know one more loss and any outside hopes of a decent bowl let alone a BCS bid are gone.

Moving on to the Pac-10, another game that seems like it could be a bear trap but I love Washington (+3.5) at home against Arizona. Huskie Stadium is a tough place to play as USC found out, and the weather will not be conducive to a warm weather team. Take Washington and the points. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines October 2-3

Yo, this is Nicky back to do more damage as the League this week. This ball didn’t bounce our way last week as we not only got “pick 6’ed” but “back doored”, as the Ca’Boys took our victory away so we have to try and get that back this week so let’s get to it. To start off, I like the Saints (-7) to end the Jets unbeaten streak. Sanchez has proven he can handle the NFL pressure and can make the throws but I think the honeymoon comes to an end this Sunday and not only do the Saints stop him but put some points on the board and win this by more than a touch. On the quant side New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets. Here’s the stat line:

SMART CHART
NYJ TEAM NO
21.3 PTS FOR 40.0
11.0 PTS AGNST 18.7
10.3 DIFF. 21.3
185.0 PASS YDS 267.3
130.0 RUSH YDS 170.7
173.3 PASS D 245.3
82.7 RUSH D 67.0
-1.0 TO DIFF -1.3

Also, I like Green Bay (+4) to go on and give the Vikings all they can handle in the first annual “Favre Bowl”. They may even win this one on the field, and spotting them more than a field goal is way too much juice. I like the way the trend line reads as Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota, 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota, and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota. Here’s the stat line for all of you quants that are asking for it, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
SMART CHART
GB TEAM MIN
27.0 PTS FOR 29.3
21.0 PTS AGNST 19.0
6.0 DIFF. 10.3
207.3 PASS YDS 173.7
105.7 RUSH YDS 143.7
207.0 PASS D 167.7
128.7 RUSH D 92.0
-2.7 TO DIFF -1.3

Ok, we’re coming off a 2-1 weekend in college football last week and making our way back to black numbers so let’s get to week 5. Our first game is a fraud exposure game where LSU does not appear top be fooling anyone. How can a top 5 team be getting points? I know it’s a road game in the SEC but c’mon you’re LSU with the most National Championships in this decade! I was hoping for a fat line in this one when I saw it early in the week and I was willing to give less than a touchdown so at Georgia -3 (by the hook if your book has it) will have to do. I like this value as a SEC home team not asking to win by more than a field goal. Here is the stat line:

Next, I like Arizona St. (-5) at home against Oregon St. who is a terrible road team in the Pac-10. Arizona St. has been battle tested by road games in the SEC (a game which they should have won) and I just don’t see OSU keeping this one within a touchdown in Tempe. Az. St. could easily be 3-0 and is opening up their Pac-10 season with the students back in school now. The stat line reads a similar story.

Lastly, I like Indiana (+18.5) getting a ton of points at home against Ohio State. I’m actually surprised at the amount of respect that OSU is getting. Indy is a 3-1 team with their only loss coming at the Big House by 3. I was prepared to take a touchdown in this game but +18 is some real value. The Hoosiers have good team speed which could neutralize Pryor’s double threat. Check the injury report prior to kickoff and if there is nothing major on the board for Indiana, this could be a game where your drinkin’ at half-time. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.