Friday, September 25, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines Week 3

Ok, we had a decent college weekend but needed to go back to the lab for the NFL so we were on the down low on Sunday, but I see some value tonight with the Panthers (+9.5, but buy .5 to take it to 10) with Barber questionable and a suspect passing game I don’t think the Ca’Boys will be able to lay a big enough number on the board to cover that kind of lumber. On the qualitative side, the Panthers are desperate for a win and know the heat will be excruciating on everyone if they go 0-3 to start. On the quant side here is the stat line:
STAT CHART
CAR TEAM DAL
15.0 PTS FOR 32.5
33.0 PTS AGNST 27.0
-18.0 DIFF. 5.5
189.5 PASS YDS 235.5
115.0 RUSH YDS 184.5
151.0 PASS D 303.0
168.0 RUSH D 135.5
2.5 TO DIFF 2.0


Ok, that’s the chowder for the lone NFL pick this week, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!



A Chinese proverb once read that a journey of a thousand miles begins with one step. Well, it’s not quite a thousand miles but after a 1-1 weekend we’ve got a little hole to dig out of so let’s get to it. We’ve split with our picks on Notre Dame so far this year and I know sometimes you just don’t get a feel for a team and go to the well too many times, but I think with Clausen’s injury, the inter-state rivalry, and too much lumber make me want to take points so I’m going to go with Purdue (+7.5) at home vs. ND. For all of you quantitative fans, here is the stat line on game:
Stat Line for Notre Dame/Purdue
NOTRD TEAM PURDUE
34.0............PTS FOR.........36.3
22.7............PTS AGNST.......32.3
11.3............DIFF............4.0
324.0...........PASS YDS........229.7
155.0...........RUSH YDS........210.7
249.3...........PASS D..........253.3
149.3...........RUSH D..........181.0
-1.3............TO DIFF.........0

We also like Arkansas (+17.5) vs. Bama in what should be a highly contested, typical SEC war. Following the rule book, you should never take a dog that you don’t think can win on the field and although the number is fat, the Razorbacks have a great aerial attack that can score with anyone and should be able to keep this close if not pull the major upset. Here is the stat line on the game, that’s the skinny, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Stat Chart for Arkansas vs. Alabama
ARK TEAM ALAB
44.5............PTS FOR.........42.3
31.0............PTS AGNST.......15.0
13.5............DIFF............27.3
427.5...........PASS YDS........244.7
110.5...........RUSH YDS........267.7
249.0...........PASS D..........143.3
118.5...........RUSH D..........42.0
-1.5............TO DIFF.........0.0

TEAM SU ATS OU OFF DEF
ARK 1-1 0-1 1-0 44.50 31.00
ALAB 3-0 2-1 3-0 42.33 15.00

No comments:

12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.