Friday, September 25, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines Week 3

Ok, we had a decent college weekend but needed to go back to the lab for the NFL so we were on the down low on Sunday, but I see some value tonight with the Panthers (+9.5, but buy .5 to take it to 10) with Barber questionable and a suspect passing game I don’t think the Ca’Boys will be able to lay a big enough number on the board to cover that kind of lumber. On the qualitative side, the Panthers are desperate for a win and know the heat will be excruciating on everyone if they go 0-3 to start. On the quant side here is the stat line:
15.0 PTS FOR 32.5
33.0 PTS AGNST 27.0
-18.0 DIFF. 5.5
189.5 PASS YDS 235.5
115.0 RUSH YDS 184.5
151.0 PASS D 303.0
168.0 RUSH D 135.5
2.5 TO DIFF 2.0

Ok, that’s the chowder for the lone NFL pick this week, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

A Chinese proverb once read that a journey of a thousand miles begins with one step. Well, it’s not quite a thousand miles but after a 1-1 weekend we’ve got a little hole to dig out of so let’s get to it. We’ve split with our picks on Notre Dame so far this year and I know sometimes you just don’t get a feel for a team and go to the well too many times, but I think with Clausen’s injury, the inter-state rivalry, and too much lumber make me want to take points so I’m going to go with Purdue (+7.5) at home vs. ND. For all of you quantitative fans, here is the stat line on game:
Stat Line for Notre Dame/Purdue
34.0............PTS FOR.........36.3
22.7............PTS AGNST.......32.3
324.0...........PASS YDS........229.7
155.0...........RUSH YDS........210.7
249.3...........PASS D..........253.3
149.3...........RUSH D..........181.0
-1.3............TO DIFF.........0

We also like Arkansas (+17.5) vs. Bama in what should be a highly contested, typical SEC war. Following the rule book, you should never take a dog that you don’t think can win on the field and although the number is fat, the Razorbacks have a great aerial attack that can score with anyone and should be able to keep this close if not pull the major upset. Here is the stat line on the game, that’s the skinny, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Stat Chart for Arkansas vs. Alabama
44.5............PTS FOR.........42.3
31.0............PTS AGNST.......15.0
427.5...........PASS YDS........244.7
110.5...........RUSH YDS........267.7
249.0...........PASS D..........143.3
118.5...........RUSH D..........42.0
-1.5............TO DIFF.........0.0

ARK 1-1 0-1 1-0 44.50 31.00
ALAB 3-0 2-1 3-0 42.33 15.00

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines week 2 back in the NFL

Ok, we’ve had enough time to see how the some of the NFL teams have come out of the blocks and it’s time to jump into the fray. Firstly, I like the Ravens (3 buy up to 3.5) going into San Diego. On the qualitative side the Chargers don’t have LT and have to go with Sproles against that Ravens defense. On the quantitative side Baltimore most recently: When playing in September are 7-3, after outgaining opponent are 7-3, when playing outside the division are 9-1 ATS, and I think they can win on the field. I also like the Patriots (-3.5, buy the hook down to 3) to work out the kinks and take care of business against the Jets. All of the popin’ off is just a smoke screen to protect their rookie QB Sanchez from a showdown with Brady. The Patriot coaching staff will have plenty of schemes waiting for Sanchez that he has not seen before, and Bill has a way of making rookies feel unwelcome. Within the numbers the pats are 8-2 when playing in September, and 7-3 when playing on turf. Lastly they’re 8-2 when playing within the division. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Yo, This is Nicky and we jump into the fray really early before teams had a chance to play and we paid the price even though I’d still take that ND bet if I had the chance. So we gotta’ get back into positive territory so let’s get to it. Firstly, I know it’s a lot of lumber but I LOVE Bama (-30) against a weak North Texas team that lost to Ohio and struggled against Ball St. Bama knows they have to look strong in their non-conference schedule so this one should be over by half-time. Additionally, I like BYU (-8) against Bobby Bowden and Florida State, despite the big difference it speed. I know this line would probably be about -3 if the Florida State receiver hangs on the ball and they come into the game 2-0 but BYU’s a well coach school and the Noles’ may have been exposed last week against a division II school. Moreover, Fla St only averages 94 ypg on the ground and they would have to do much better than that to take out the Cougars at home as they are 22-3 their last 25 games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, September 11, 2009

Behind enemy lines week 1

Yo, this is Nicky, and a happy new year to everyone. It’s the most wonderful time of the year as the season is new and every team thinks they have a shot to National Championship or the Super Bowl so everyone is playing hard. It makes it touch to work the line but there’s also some good value out there so let’s get to it. Firstly, on the college grid iron, I’m sorry but I can’t change the tide or the color of the ocean and I’m layin’ the 7.5 with USC and going to buy it down to 7. I know they’ll going to go 8 in the box and try to stop the run, but against a much slower Navy team they gave up 180 yards rushing and I have to think USC will do much better than that. On the quantitative side the Trojans are most recently 9-1 when playing in September and 10-0 outside the conference. I won’t even go into the history of the two schools. I also like the Irish -3 (buy it down to 2.5) going into the Big House. I think Charlie’s job is on the line and ND is going to play like a champion for him. On the quant side ND is 7-3 ATS the last 10 when playing Michigan. This combo also makes for a good teaser, but play even units and if you have some fun take the teaser for chump change. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

See all of the recent betting lines for college and the NFL here
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.