Friday, December 25, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines Week 16

Yo, this is ya boy’ Nicky and I wouldn’t be surprised if I didn’t have a hit out on me the way we’ve been killin’ your book lately, (3-0 last week, off to a 1-0 start this week) but before we get to crazy let’s finish out da’ game. Wow, not even I expected the SuperChargers to take care of us so easily but I did tell ya to hit the money line for a small taste as well, so I hope ya did. The advantage we have now over number is that we have an entire season of stats to work off of, so let’s try to maximize that value. With that in mind I like the Jags (+9) going into New England. I know the Pats are unbeaten at the Razor this year but if there is one thing that the season has illustrated is that the Pats have problems stopping the run, and Jacksonville averages 129 yards on the ground per game. In bad weather look for them to be going to Cool Mo’D early and often and keep this one close. On the qualitative side, the Jags have to win in order to keep their playoff hope alive and the Pats haven’t covered a decent spread since the 07’ season. For you quants, New England is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games, BUT 5-2 ATS their last 7 vs. Jville, of course those were different Patriot teams that this one. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Don’t forget live chat rooms for every game in the NFL on the main page, also visit the Player’s Club chat room to discuss everything from injuries to weather with other playa’s like yourself. You can also view the Smacchat Stat line for this game here..

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Yo, this is Nicky and after a 3-0 weekend last weekend (don’t forget the bonus pick on the site) we’re 4-1 over the last two weekends so let’s keep the mo’ going. The first game I like is the Friday evening game as the Superchargers (+3.5 buy the hook) travel to Tennessee to take on the Titans. I realize this is a must win for the Titans and the Chargers all but have the AFC Weak wrapped up after the Denver choke last week, but SD is the hottest team in the league right now and they’re looking to get home games against everyone except the Colts who they’re not really afraid of. On top of that the Stats also lean their way as the Chargers are 5-2 ATS their last 5, 4-1 on the road, and 5-0 ATS against Tennessee. This is one of those games that’s looks so good on paper that it makes you check injuries and weather, but I can’t see anything talking me of this. Take the points and consider the money line play for chump change. Here’s the stat line.

SMART CHART San Diego at Tennessee
SD TEAM TEN
27.8 PTS FOR 22.9
20.2 PTS AGNST 24.8
7.6 DIFF. -1.9
268.9 PASS YDS 198.0
86.2 RUSH YDS 162.6
213.2 PASS D 265.1
116.9 RUSH D 100.4
-0.5 TO DIFF 0.1


San Diego is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines NFL Week 15

Yo, this is Nicky now that College has taken a break for a couple of weeks we got an opportunity to focus on the NFL. Last week the Jags couldn’t convert on turnovers and it cost us an undefeated week as the Chargers turned out NOT to be a bear trap but the easiest game of the year. It’s games like that that make you reconsider the rules, but you never increase your betting units that way if you’re right more than you’re wrong you’ll always have some scratch in the game and live to fight another day. That said, let’s get to this week. I know we don’t normally play under/overs (but we’re 2-0 this year on em’) but one jumps out at me. The over on the Steelers/Packers (40.5), the weather will be bad and that favors the offense because they know where they’re going. Green Bay has only scored less than 21 points one time this year (vs. Dallas) that only leaves 3 scores for a Steeler club that is under so much heat from the press and former players that we’ll all be surprised if they don’t play one of their best games of the year. The thought of them doing so is the only thing that’s keeping me from taking the number.

The second game looks like a ‘bear trap’ just like the chargers did last week but I’ve looked this up and down and can’t see how the Dolphins are GETTING 5 at Tennessee. I know Ronnie Brown is out for the year but we’ve known that for two weeks, and the Fish still seem to keep winning without him including back-to-back upsets of the Patriots and Jags. I mean these are the 6-7 Tennessee Titans correct? Even if they manage to get an entire game out of Vince Young and he doesn’t revert back to his old ways, they still should be getting points at home. I realize their running game has been on fire and they are feeling some mo’ lately but the Fish are fighting for their playoff lives and a loss all but seals their fate based on their schedule. Ok, for you quants, if that’s still not enough, the Dolphins are 5-2 ATS their last 7, and 4-1 straight up. I like the stat line as well. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!`

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines week 14

This is Nicky, back for more work but I must say I’m sorry to see college go the way were playing at the end so now we have to make our steak with the big dogs so let’s get to it. Firstly, I like the Jags (-2) to hold serve against the Dolphins. This is a huge game of the Jags as they have to take 2 of their last four and this one at home is one they need to get. The Jags are 4-1 in their last 5 straight up and the fish are 2-4 ATS on the road and I think that trend will continue.

One game that looks so good that I feared the bear trap was San Diego (+3) at Dallas. I realize home field gives you and extra 3 on the line and the Ca’Boys are in a must win but laying a tre against a team that could win on the field seems like real value to me. If this game were in SoCal the Super Chargers would be laying 7+ and I don’t think the Cowboys’ new home makes that big of a difference even if they have 100k standing outside. SD has won seven straight games and are right up there with the Colts and Saints as the hottest team in football. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines Championship Week

Yo, this is Nicky back for more action in the NFL had to get some more math done as after getting off to the good start on Thursday night we’re under water for the weekend so let’s find some value. I know we’ve only played one u/o for the year and we hit it, and now I’m going to try and got 2 for 2 as I like the under in the Giants/CaBoy game. The first time these two teams met the tallied 64 points between them and 75% of the time when teams play for the second time in the season the game total goes the other way. Furthermore the total has gone under in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games.
SMART CHART
DAL TEAM NYG
23.2............PTS FOR.........24.7
16.5............PTS AGNST.......23.7
6.6.............DIFF............1.0
254.1...........PASS YDS........247.9
138.0...........RUSH YDS........126.8
224.9...........PASS D..........182.6
102.7...........RUSH D..........107.8
0.3.............TO DIFF.........0.0

Yo this is Nicky and I owe you one for going 0-2 (12-4 last 16) last weekend so I figured we’d get started early, but I like what I see on Thursday on here’s why. Oregon State has only lost one game all year by 10 points and that was to #5 Cincinnati. Also, Oregon gives up over 100 yards per game on the ground (130) which means OState will be able to move the ball and should be able to come close to their average of 32 points per game. I know the Ducks can score but I can’t see them putting up enough to cover double digits in a rivalry game so I like Oregon State (+10.5 buy the hook). For all of you quants, Oregon State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games, and 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road.
SMART CHART
OREGST OREG
32.4............PTS FOR.........37.7
22.2............PTS AGNST.......22.7
10.2............DIFF............15.0
272.5...........PASS YD.........187.5
149.7...........RUSH YDS........231.4
242.1...........PASS D..........193.4
98.5............RUSH D..........130.6
-0.4............TO DIFF.........-0

Friday, November 27, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines Rivalry Week in College Football

Yo, this is Nicky and we got shutout yesterday on the college boards and I apologize for the Ok State farce, but let’s try to get it back on the NFL. The first game I like are the Texans (+3.5) at home against the Colts. The Texans kinda got the Colts number and played them tough in Indy in the first game just missing a filed goal to win it on the last play of the game. Houston is a good home team and I love them as a home dog. Here’s the Statline:

This is the Nicky, and we come into rivalry week with a 12-2 mark in our last 14 games and I like what I see on the board this year. What we’ve seen so far in the rivalry games is the pattern of the favorites not covering (Texas, Bama, Pitt) so we have to be real careful laying big lumber but here’s where I see some value. I like Oklahoma St (+7.5) at Oklahoma even though I know it looks like a bear trap. Set aside the fact that a number 12 team is playing an unranked team and GETTING points but the Ok defense is not the Sooner D from previous years so even without Bryant or Deion’s services they will still be able to move the ball. Offensively Bradford is just thinking about staying healthy and playing on Sundays and it’s affected the entire offense. I like the Cowboys to possibly win this on the field so I’ll take more than a touchdown, this makes an excellent teaser game as well.

I’m going to take a fav in the second game as I like Stanford (-9.5 buy the hook) to send Charlie out a loser in his last game at Notre Dame. The Cardinal are probably the most underrated team in the NCAA because of their past and a non-intimidating offense. They don’t spread the field or beat you with speed, they just line up and punch you in the mouth with a Rocky Blier style tailback. These guys can play, take it and bit it. Here’s the stat line, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your glove’s up! back with you tomorrow.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines Week 11

This is Nicky, and we hit our college game yesterday with Zona and the points improving our run in college to 12-2 our last 14, now let’s turn our focus to the NFL. Firstly, I’m still bitter at the Broncos for messing us up last weekend but the books shouldn’t be the only ones to benefit from the misfortunes of the Mile High City, so I’m going to sell short based on Chris Simms’ inability to move the offense and take the Chargers minus a ton (-6.5, buy the hook to 6). I would be surprised if the Broncos got into the end zone at all in this game. Here’s the statline:


The second pick of the weekend are the Jags (-8) hosting the coach less Bills. The ether of playing for a new coach and ‘turning over a new leaf’ will last for about a quarter until they realize they can’t score the football. The Jags (5-4) realize they have not only a shot at salvaging their season but actually making the playoffs but they must get the ‘W’ in a gimme game like this one. They’ll show up and take care of business. Here’s the statline:

The last game I like is for the Pats (-10, buy the hook) to punish the Jets at the Razor. I’m not even going to bring up the 4th and 2, you’ll make your own opinion on how they’re going to rebound after that game, but the stats on Bill’s Patriots losing two in a row, two to the same team, home games in November warrants a 14.5 point line, furthermore the NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games, 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games on the road, while the Pats are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games when playing NY Jets, so I’ll take it at two scores and bet that the Rookie Sanchez has an absolutely rude introduction to the Razor. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

Yo, this is Nicky and the way we’ve been rollin’ in the NCAA (11-2 our last 13) we should not try to out think ourselves but the this is a really tough week so stick to the fundamentals. That kept us out of disaster last Sunday when we felt so strong about Denver, and I know you can’t do anything when you get hit with an injury but that’s why you always play even units and never ‘load up’ regardless of how good it looks. There’s nothing on the board that jumped out at me and screamed value but I do like a home dog that I think can win on the field so take Zona (+6.5, buy it if you have to) against Oregon. I know how potent Oregon is and that they’re going for a Rose Bowl birth with a win, but Arizona only gives up 100 yards on the ground and they could slow the Ducks down. Also the Cats are a good home team and Stoops will have them ready to play spoiler. They may not win on the field but this will be close and I feel better getting than giving in this one. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Behind enemy lines NCAA week 10

Another 2-0 day in college football means we’re 11-2 our last 13, let’s keep the mo’ going into the NFL. To start off I know our first rule is always to keep even units, what ever it is. Never put any more value in one game than another as you always have the same chance of getting bit. However if there ever was a game that I felt more strongly than normal it is the Broncos (-3, buy the .5) going into Washington. When I looked at this I would have laid 7 or 8 and was fearing the ‘bear trap’ when I saw the line, but it’s still a go. The Broncos’ lead in the West is down to 1 game of the Chargers who are on a roll right now and this would be 3 losses in a row for Denver.

In the late game I like the Patriots (+3.5 buy the .3) at Indy. I know the Colts are unbeaten and a monster at home, but they’re nursing injuries at some key positions. They’ll be starting 2 rookie corners and no Bob Sanders against the number two offense in the league which usually is a recipe for disaster. The Pats are finally clicking offensively and are looking like the pats of 07’. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Here’s the statline:

I’m going to start off with another dog with the Stanford Cardinal (+11) on the road at USC. I know everyone remembers the upset and that might be some motivation for the men of troy but the Cardinal run the ball extremely well (211 per game) and will be able to keep SC’s offense off the field. Did you ever think you would see the day when Stanford gained more yards on the ground than USC? I think that’s a pretty big number for a team that controls the ball and doesn’t turn it over.

Next, I like Pittsburgh (-6.5, buy the .5 point) against ND. I looked at this and couldn’t figure out how it was only a touch. I realize that ND needs to become bowl eligible but Pitt needs this win to get a BCS bowl! The numbers all lean Pitts way and I can’t find a reason why ND should be within 2 scores. I realize the Big East is soft this year but then again so is ND’s schedule and they haven’t even done that well with it. Here’s the stat line, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, November 6, 2009

Behind Enemy lines NCAA week 9/ NFL

Now that injury reports are in we can make a good assessment of the Sunday night game and I like the over (49.5 buy the .5 if you’re at 50) in the Dallas/Philly game. I was contemplating laying the 3 but there is way too much quant data pointing towards the over:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
So quite a few indicators point towards the over and I’m not swimming against the tide. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in ring and keep your gloves up!


Yo, this is Nicky back for more action after a 2-0 day in the NCAA so let’s try to keep the mo’ going into Sunday. I see a lot of value in getting more than a field goal with the Chargers (+4.5) at the Giants. I know the GMen have lost three straight but San Diego is playing really well right now and they can win this on the field let alone keep it close. This is also a great teaser game.

Yo, This is Nicky, for the third week in a row we’ve done at least 2-1 on the college board so thinks are starting to play true to form, so let’s try to find some value on the board. Although they’re unbeaten I’m still not sold on the Hawkeyes and although Northwestern is not a great club I think 15.5 is too much lumber for Iowa to cover, even at home. I realize Iowa is 9-1 ats in conference their last 10 but they haven’t looked good even at home and I’m going to go against the tape in this one.

Another game where I see some value is the under on the Notre Dame/Navy Game (under 56.5) I know I typically go the other way with the Irish as I think there is typically too much ‘dumb money’ no them but hear me out. Navy is 1-12 ATS their last 13 against the Irish and they only pass for an average on 71 yards per game, and that’s against bad competition. ND will go eight in the box and force them out of the option which will make it tough for the Midshipmen to put it in the endzone. It’s just too much lumber to lay on ND and I can’t trust the Irish as they are 1-6 ATS in its last 7, and 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home, so the under is the obvious choice. That’s the chowder for Saturday I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Behind Enemy lines week 8

Well the Giants didn’t show up last week for us and it cost us a sub-par Sunday and made for an even weekend last week so we’ve got some work to do. We had a decent 2-1 day in college on Saturday so let’s shoot for at least a 4-2 weekend and double our money. The first game I see with some value is the Buffalo Bills (+3.5) at home vs. the Texans. I know I hate betting on bad teams but I like a home dog, bad weather, and a defense that can keep them in the game. Both teams have won two straight and I see this as a field goal game. I don’t think either one is good enough to beat the other by more than a touchdown.

Next I like Ravens (-3, buy down to 2.5) at home against the Broncos. I’m one of those who still believes the they’re the worst 6-0 team in the history of the NFL and are waiting for them to come down to earth. A couple of years back an unbeaten Patriots team went into Baltimore and were lucky to get out with a win that some say the didn’t get even today. This Denver team is not in the same universe as that Pats team and the Ravens have a way of getting up for marquis games, and is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver.

Lastly, I’m going to go with the Ca’Boys (-9.5 buy down to 9)over the Seachickens it’s not so much my faith in Romo as much as how well they’re playing protecting their new house (7-2 SU in its last 9, and 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home)and how bad Seattle is on the road. The Boys’ are also 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle, so a little ownership. That's the chowder for this week, I'm Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

Yo, this is Nicky back for more damage after a 2-1 weekend last week (Ole Miss cost us) and 5-1 over the last two weeks, we finally got a little momentum so let’s keep it going this week. It’s a tough week to call out there as it’s that time of year that you have to factor in all of the whether and injuries. With that in mind the first pick of the weekend is the under on ND/Washington St (-60.5, buy the .5) I know we haven’t played an under in a while but hear me out. Washington only averages 14 points per game with most of those coming during bench clearing time. The only question here is how much is Jimmy Clausen going to throw as he’s still in the Heisman race. Not enough to drop a fiddy spot so I like the under. Also ND has only covered once has a favorite this year and that was against Nevada on opening day, otherwise they’re 0-5. If that trend holds then who is going to score over 30 to get the over?

Next I like the Trojans (-3, buy down to 2.5) going up to Eugene to take one the Ducks. This is the biggest game in the Pac-10 this year and I realize how much of a roll O is on but they are just too banged up to stop the USC on offense. Their secondary is so depleted they had to ask a red-shirt to suit up. They face quite the dilemma as they can’t go 8 in the box to stop the run (SC averages 198 yards per game on the ground) because of the secondary and they can’t send help to cover the SC speed or size at the skill positions because of the running game. Now you stat lovers aren’t going to like this call as Oregon is 4-0 ATS against P-10 opponents and have covered 5 straight games, but you can’t quantify injuries.

The last game I like is Texas Tech (-7, buy down to 6.5) the Aggies lead the nation in passing and score plenty to cover this number. A win makes them bowl eligible and they cover well when playing within the conference at 7-3ATS, including 6-1 against Kansas their last 7 games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!
Who do you like on Saturday? Bounce your ideas off Nicky, and other player's in the Player's Club chat rooms.
See all of the up to date betting lines here.


Friday, October 23, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines Week 7 College/nfl week 6

Ok, I’m back to do more damage and we’ve finally gotten on the roll we were looking for. We followed up a 3-0 college weekend with a 2-1 day yesterday. Now we working on a 2-1 NFL week last week so let’s get to it. This week is tough because the teams we like to win are laying some huge lumber so we need to be selective and get the most value. One game I really like is the Gmen (-7, buy it down to 6.5). I like the fact that their coming off a loss, that we’ve got a warm weather team playing in terrible conditions, and very late game for them. On the quant side it looks good for the GMen as the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, 5-1 SU in their last 6, NY is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home, and lastly the Giants are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games at home.

Next, I’m going to ask you to get out the chain saw and lay a bunch of lumber with the Colts (-14, buy it to under 2 tds to 13.5). The Lambs are so bad they are like a division I school right now, Freeny is coming back making the to Colt D and entirely different team and even though they’re on the road it’s still in a dome game. The numbers like them as well as Indy is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road, 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road, and 4-1 ATS their last 5 overall.

Laslty, I’m going to take the Vikings +6.5 against the Steelers. I know AD is probable and Troy is going to play but that’s a ton of points for a team that turns the ball over as much as Pittsburgh does and that can not seem to close games out this year. What does scare me is a dome team going outside but Favre is pretty well accustomed to bad weather. The numbers tilt the Vikings way as well as they are 4-2 ATS in its last 6, 5-0 SU in its last 5 games, and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road. On the other side Pitt is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
____________________________________________________________________________________

Yo, this is Nicky and it may have taken 6 weeks but we finally had our first 3-0 college weekend (we also went 2-1 in the NFL), now the objective is to keep the mo’ going, but as the season gets longer we have the advantage as the surprises should be less frequent. That said, I see some value in 3 of the games on Saturday so let’s get to it. Firstly, I like Texas (-12) at Missouri. Ok, based on records I would take the home dog but when you dig a little deeper you see that Mizzu has only beaten bad teams (Nevada, Furman, Bowling Green) and gotten whacked when they played anyone half decent (Nebraska, Oklahoma St). Also for you quants, Mizzu is 0-5 vs. Texas their last 5 meetings.

Another game that looks like there is some good value is Arizona(-7 buy the hook if have to) against UCLA. Arizona is a very good home team while UCLA is terrible on the road (2-9 last 11). Moreover Arizona is 6-2 in its last 8 games (5-0 at home), and the Cats are 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing UCLA. UCLA also has that deadly combination of being ranked 101st in nation in total offense and 79th against the run on defense. I was surprised this line wasn’t 10 but I’ll take it at a touch and this game makes for a great teaser as well.

Lastly, I really like Arkansas (+6.5) at Ole Miss. The Rebels look to be a bit of a fraud as they paded their stats with the feeder fish on their schedule ( UAB, Vandy, Southeastern Louisiana) but got smoked in their only two SEC games (SC, Bama) by an average of 26 points. Ole Miss is also 0-5 ATS when playing Arkansas. Meanwhile the Razorbacks keep most games close with the exception of the Alabama game, have covered three straight games and are 14th in the nation in total scoring offense. Exactly what you want when you’re getting points. Ok, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Behind enemy lines

Ok, we finally had the 3-0 week we’ve been looking for in college as OU, UK and Iowa came through, let’s try to keep the mo’ going in the pros. This is a tough year to navigate through because it’s been a long time since we’ve seen such a disparity between the top teams and the feeder fish. This results in huge lines and tough to find real value. I know the “Pro betters” how’s that for an oxymoron, say that teasers are a sucker bet because of the juice, but if you take a couple of good teams down like Pittsburgh and Philly it makes those lines a lot more reasonable. Anyway, we’re here to discuss the straight bets and here’s where I see value on Sunday. I will take the Chiefs (+6) against the Redskins even though they’re on the road. It is the first time in history that a team has faced a winless team for 6 consecutive weeks, and all they can muster with that weak schedule is 2-3? This game should be -2 tops but 6? Take it and bid it. Click here to see the statline:

I will take the bait, and lay a HUGE number with Pittsburgh (-13.5 buy the .5 point) against the Browns. Anderson and that offense are so bad it’s tough to fathom. After a 2-14 passing day last weekend, I know he’ll get better but going into the Ketchup Kingdom? The Browns could seriously get shut out in this game and I’d be afraid to go the other way. Click here to see the statline:

In the last game I like the Bengals (-5.5) to beat up the Texans. Houston simply is not a good team this year and the Bengals are a fluke away from being considered one of the best. Blackout or not, they will be tough at home and they know they need to put his game in the win column because of their upcoming schedule. Here’s the stat line, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in ring and keep your gloves up!
________________________________College Week 6_______________________________

Yo, this is Nicky, and we did ok on the college board last week thanks to Iowa and Washington takin’ care of biznis’ but even though we did the math, we got the wrong answer on Georgia so we’re still in search of a perfect college day so let’s get to it. I normally try to stay out of the mire but I think they’re giving Texas too much credit by asking them to win by more than a field goal, as the Sooners match up with them pretty well statistically. I like OU (+4) as there is more value there. I do believe they can win on the field and the field goal cushion gives us some room for error.
Next we move to the SEC where I like UK as I think 14.5 is way too much for Auburn to cover even at home. Kentucky has proven its no doormat this year, averages over 34 points per game, over 325 yards in offense per game in the SEC, and can play teams close even on the road. Here is the stat line:

Lastly, I’m going back to the well with IOWA (+3) against Wisconsin. I was impressed with the Badgers when the spotlight was on them in a big game (OSU) too many turnovers and against a disciplined team like the Hawkeyes that will kill you. Here’s the stat line to go with it, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

What game to you think offers the best value? Is there a game you what some information on? Let us know here and in the Player's Club Chat Room.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines October 10

Turning to the NFL there’s a couple of late games that look like there is some good value. Firstly, I like the 49’ers basically playing straight up at home against the Falcons. Frank Gore is back and the Niners have been playing exceptionally well on defense. For you fans of quant analysis, Atlanta is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco and the Niners are 10-1 straight up at at home against the Falcons.

Hey this is Nicky, we still have not had the sweep week yet this year and need to get healthy, we’re on the comeback trail and we see some value on the board so let’s get to it. Starting in the SEC with JV game as the Varsity game (FLA/LSU) is too hot to touch as Ole Miss (+5) hosting Bama. I know the Rebels are licking their wounds for being sent to Siberia after dropping a tough SEC home loss. I love getting more than a field goal in the SEC and I love home dogs. True Ole Miss is 0-5 vs. Bama the last 5 but they have other quant data going their way as they are 9-1 SU in its last 10 games Mississippi is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home, and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Alabama.

Staying in the SEC, I’ve looked this line up and down, checked the injury reports and still can’t figure out how Georgia is getting points at Rocky Top. Take the point with the Bulldogs, this looks like an excellent game to tease as well. It all depends on Georgia’s mental state, but they also know one more loss and any outside hopes of a decent bowl let alone a BCS bid are gone.

Moving on to the Pac-10, another game that seems like it could be a bear trap but I love Washington (+3.5) at home against Arizona. Huskie Stadium is a tough place to play as USC found out, and the weather will not be conducive to a warm weather team. Take Washington and the points. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines October 2-3

Yo, this is Nicky back to do more damage as the League this week. This ball didn’t bounce our way last week as we not only got “pick 6’ed” but “back doored”, as the Ca’Boys took our victory away so we have to try and get that back this week so let’s get to it. To start off, I like the Saints (-7) to end the Jets unbeaten streak. Sanchez has proven he can handle the NFL pressure and can make the throws but I think the honeymoon comes to an end this Sunday and not only do the Saints stop him but put some points on the board and win this by more than a touch. On the quant side New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets. Here’s the stat line:

SMART CHART
NYJ TEAM NO
21.3 PTS FOR 40.0
11.0 PTS AGNST 18.7
10.3 DIFF. 21.3
185.0 PASS YDS 267.3
130.0 RUSH YDS 170.7
173.3 PASS D 245.3
82.7 RUSH D 67.0
-1.0 TO DIFF -1.3

Also, I like Green Bay (+4) to go on and give the Vikings all they can handle in the first annual “Favre Bowl”. They may even win this one on the field, and spotting them more than a field goal is way too much juice. I like the way the trend line reads as Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota, 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota, and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota. Here’s the stat line for all of you quants that are asking for it, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
SMART CHART
GB TEAM MIN
27.0 PTS FOR 29.3
21.0 PTS AGNST 19.0
6.0 DIFF. 10.3
207.3 PASS YDS 173.7
105.7 RUSH YDS 143.7
207.0 PASS D 167.7
128.7 RUSH D 92.0
-2.7 TO DIFF -1.3

Ok, we’re coming off a 2-1 weekend in college football last week and making our way back to black numbers so let’s get to week 5. Our first game is a fraud exposure game where LSU does not appear top be fooling anyone. How can a top 5 team be getting points? I know it’s a road game in the SEC but c’mon you’re LSU with the most National Championships in this decade! I was hoping for a fat line in this one when I saw it early in the week and I was willing to give less than a touchdown so at Georgia -3 (by the hook if your book has it) will have to do. I like this value as a SEC home team not asking to win by more than a field goal. Here is the stat line:

Next, I like Arizona St. (-5) at home against Oregon St. who is a terrible road team in the Pac-10. Arizona St. has been battle tested by road games in the SEC (a game which they should have won) and I just don’t see OSU keeping this one within a touchdown in Tempe. Az. St. could easily be 3-0 and is opening up their Pac-10 season with the students back in school now. The stat line reads a similar story.

Lastly, I like Indiana (+18.5) getting a ton of points at home against Ohio State. I’m actually surprised at the amount of respect that OSU is getting. Indy is a 3-1 team with their only loss coming at the Big House by 3. I was prepared to take a touchdown in this game but +18 is some real value. The Hoosiers have good team speed which could neutralize Pryor’s double threat. Check the injury report prior to kickoff and if there is nothing major on the board for Indiana, this could be a game where your drinkin’ at half-time. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, September 25, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines Week 3

Ok, we had a decent college weekend but needed to go back to the lab for the NFL so we were on the down low on Sunday, but I see some value tonight with the Panthers (+9.5, but buy .5 to take it to 10) with Barber questionable and a suspect passing game I don’t think the Ca’Boys will be able to lay a big enough number on the board to cover that kind of lumber. On the qualitative side, the Panthers are desperate for a win and know the heat will be excruciating on everyone if they go 0-3 to start. On the quant side here is the stat line:
STAT CHART
CAR TEAM DAL
15.0 PTS FOR 32.5
33.0 PTS AGNST 27.0
-18.0 DIFF. 5.5
189.5 PASS YDS 235.5
115.0 RUSH YDS 184.5
151.0 PASS D 303.0
168.0 RUSH D 135.5
2.5 TO DIFF 2.0


Ok, that’s the chowder for the lone NFL pick this week, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!



A Chinese proverb once read that a journey of a thousand miles begins with one step. Well, it’s not quite a thousand miles but after a 1-1 weekend we’ve got a little hole to dig out of so let’s get to it. We’ve split with our picks on Notre Dame so far this year and I know sometimes you just don’t get a feel for a team and go to the well too many times, but I think with Clausen’s injury, the inter-state rivalry, and too much lumber make me want to take points so I’m going to go with Purdue (+7.5) at home vs. ND. For all of you quantitative fans, here is the stat line on game:
Stat Line for Notre Dame/Purdue
NOTRD TEAM PURDUE
34.0............PTS FOR.........36.3
22.7............PTS AGNST.......32.3
11.3............DIFF............4.0
324.0...........PASS YDS........229.7
155.0...........RUSH YDS........210.7
249.3...........PASS D..........253.3
149.3...........RUSH D..........181.0
-1.3............TO DIFF.........0

We also like Arkansas (+17.5) vs. Bama in what should be a highly contested, typical SEC war. Following the rule book, you should never take a dog that you don’t think can win on the field and although the number is fat, the Razorbacks have a great aerial attack that can score with anyone and should be able to keep this close if not pull the major upset. Here is the stat line on the game, that’s the skinny, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Stat Chart for Arkansas vs. Alabama
ARK TEAM ALAB
44.5............PTS FOR.........42.3
31.0............PTS AGNST.......15.0
13.5............DIFF............27.3
427.5...........PASS YDS........244.7
110.5...........RUSH YDS........267.7
249.0...........PASS D..........143.3
118.5...........RUSH D..........42.0
-1.5............TO DIFF.........0.0

TEAM SU ATS OU OFF DEF
ARK 1-1 0-1 1-0 44.50 31.00
ALAB 3-0 2-1 3-0 42.33 15.00

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines week 2 back in the NFL

Ok, we’ve had enough time to see how the some of the NFL teams have come out of the blocks and it’s time to jump into the fray. Firstly, I like the Ravens (3 buy up to 3.5) going into San Diego. On the qualitative side the Chargers don’t have LT and have to go with Sproles against that Ravens defense. On the quantitative side Baltimore most recently: When playing in September are 7-3, after outgaining opponent are 7-3, when playing outside the division are 9-1 ATS, and I think they can win on the field. I also like the Patriots (-3.5, buy the hook down to 3) to work out the kinks and take care of business against the Jets. All of the popin’ off is just a smoke screen to protect their rookie QB Sanchez from a showdown with Brady. The Patriot coaching staff will have plenty of schemes waiting for Sanchez that he has not seen before, and Bill has a way of making rookies feel unwelcome. Within the numbers the pats are 8-2 when playing in September, and 7-3 when playing on turf. Lastly they’re 8-2 when playing within the division. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Yo, This is Nicky and we jump into the fray really early before teams had a chance to play and we paid the price even though I’d still take that ND bet if I had the chance. So we gotta’ get back into positive territory so let’s get to it. Firstly, I know it’s a lot of lumber but I LOVE Bama (-30) against a weak North Texas team that lost to Ohio and struggled against Ball St. Bama knows they have to look strong in their non-conference schedule so this one should be over by half-time. Additionally, I like BYU (-8) against Bobby Bowden and Florida State, despite the big difference it speed. I know this line would probably be about -3 if the Florida State receiver hangs on the ball and they come into the game 2-0 but BYU’s a well coach school and the Noles’ may have been exposed last week against a division II school. Moreover, Fla St only averages 94 ypg on the ground and they would have to do much better than that to take out the Cougars at home as they are 22-3 their last 25 games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, September 11, 2009

Behind enemy lines week 1

Yo, this is Nicky, and a happy new year to everyone. It’s the most wonderful time of the year as the season is new and every team thinks they have a shot to National Championship or the Super Bowl so everyone is playing hard. It makes it touch to work the line but there’s also some good value out there so let’s get to it. Firstly, on the college grid iron, I’m sorry but I can’t change the tide or the color of the ocean and I’m layin’ the 7.5 with USC and going to buy it down to 7. I know they’ll going to go 8 in the box and try to stop the run, but against a much slower Navy team they gave up 180 yards rushing and I have to think USC will do much better than that. On the quantitative side the Trojans are most recently 9-1 when playing in September and 10-0 outside the conference. I won’t even go into the history of the two schools. I also like the Irish -3 (buy it down to 2.5) going into the Big House. I think Charlie’s job is on the line and ND is going to play like a champion for him. On the quant side ND is 7-3 ATS the last 10 when playing Michigan. This combo also makes for a good teaser, but play even units and if you have some fun take the teaser for chump change. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

See all of the recent betting lines for college and the NFL here
.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

When supporting your club becomes your avocation

In the year the Patriots almost completed the perfect season every line player read the story of the fervent New England fan who put $100 on the Pats on opening day and let it ride for nine straight weeks, keep in mind the Pats were pretty much smokin’ fools for the first 10 games outright and obviously covering the straight up bet for the entire regular season. The guy walked with just over 50 large but could have had just over 500k if he was just playing money line. So that got us to thinking about what about the baseball fanatic that loves his club so much that the just plays a C-Note per game +/- the juice and where would he be. Knowing that the good clubs are often laying pretty heavy juice you know that the Yanks and Sox would be a losing proposition but the team on top might surprise you. Here’s what $100 per game would net you on every team in the league as of last Sunday’s games.

1. Angels (.612) $2,128
2. Rangers (.573) $1,657
3. Dodgers (.588) $934
4. Phillies (.574) $860
5. Rockies (.551) $856
6. Giants (.542) $644
7. Marlins (.534) $625
8. Mariners (.517) $426
9. White Sox (.513) $411
10. Yankees (.622) $405
11. Cardinals (.567) $166
12. Astros (.483) $483
13. Rays (.538) -$194
14. Tigers (.530) -$314
15. Braves (.525) -$322

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines - Finals Style

Stanley Cup Finals

Yo, this is Nicky coming off a big win last night in the NBA (Lakers +2.5) an almost ready to cash in on our series bet as well. But right now we got Puck on the table so let’s get to it. Well, we picked the Pens (+115) to win the series so we’ve already got chips on the table and unique situation, because the Wings are giving (Det -200) we could take the Wings and just lose/make the juice, but that’s not what we’re after. So, I believed in them in the beginning and I’m not jumping off the train now. I know our straight up odds tonight are better than our series odds but don’t forget we hit a series game as well so we’re playing with ‘house money’ and it’s too expensive to hedge so let’s hold the position and enjoy the game.


Yo, this is Nicky, and things have slowed down a bit as the Stanley and O’Brien are going to be handed out soon but there’s some value on the board so let’s get to it. Firstly we sitting on a winning ticket playing the Lakers 4-1 (7/2) and 4-2 (11/4) but now there’s also a nice game opportunity to pick up a little extra coin. Ya know, I thought about a titular hedge (where technically we could lose both but it wouldn’t be likely) as if LA wins game 4 this series is over but when I saw that the Lakers were getting 2.5, I thought you gotta take the number. The biggest lead Orlando has had in 3 games was 7, still two possessions away from a cover, and they’re going to follow up a game where they needed to set an NBA shooting record and STILL didn’t cover??? On top of that the Mamba is blaming it on himself so ‘forgetabautit’ the Kobe storm is coming, take the 2.5 and collect on both. In the NHL we still have our Pens (+115) to win the series so being that the Wings are going to be the fav tomorrow, we’ll split the difference and take our money. Nice! That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, May 30, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines, Stanley Cup Style

Ok, so we called the Laker/Nugget series to the number (6 games) and hit the 4 to 1, but lost 5 game pick so we’re up 3 units there. We also hit game 6 (Lakers +5.5) can you believe they were giving money away on that? So that proved to be a profitable series. We’re in a little bit of trouble on the Cavs as we’re going to need them to clutch up in game 6, and unfortunately the Magic are laying points in game 6 so we’d have to take the money line to hedge and it’s prudent just to lay off as we could get wacked twice. We’ve built up some reserves so let’s wait and see if there’s a game 7 which would present a huge opportunity to ‘middle’ and hit both. Now on to Hockey! I Love the Pens (-115) to win the series, I think Detroit just has too many injuries to deal with the Pittsburgh offense and I don’t think they can. The Pens should be able to bulge the net in each game making them really tough on the road. Picking the game may be too aggressive and the number is small so lay the juice and enjoy the series. If there is an opportunity we’ll hit some individual games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!



Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Behind enemy lines, the NBA Final Four

Yo, this is Nicky and we’re just over .500 on the individual games but 4-1 picking the series and that’s where we’re looking today so let’s get to it. Firstly DON’T buy into the hype that the Denver Nuggets are playing the best basketball of the playoffs, that w/Chauncy they’ve “re-discovered” their defense, that….whatever. Hello?? They gave up 100pts to NO Town AND Dallas, what is the highest team in the league gonna do to them??? They will not score enough to stay with LA in this series, and you know me, I’m all about the quant, I don’t bet with my head, and Phillip is 41-0 when winning game 1 in a 7 game series, the Lakers are 6.5 point favs tonight, they win game 1 and win the series in 6 perhaps 5. Hedge with series games and speak of me well. In the East it will be closer than people think as far as individual games go but the Cavs will win them in the end and this series won’t be close. I know Orlando handled the Cavs pretty easy down on the Riviera, but not in the second season. The Cavs haven’t had to make a clutch shot in over a two months, and that will be the reason they lose one close one. Otherwise take the Cavaliers at 3/2 to win the series in five games, sit back and watch the most anticipated finals since Michael took on Magic. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Get all of the current betting lines as well as our expert picks in the Players Club chat rooms.

Thursday, April 30, 2009

Behind Enemy Lines, playoff edition

We’re making our way through the mire after going 2 for 2 in the NBA to raise the record to 3-1 thus far in the first round, and also hit our first hockey pick (Caps -250) to go 1-0 in the NHL. Let’s strike while the coals are hot as there appears to be some opportunity this week so let’s get to it. I love the Bulls (-2.5) to come out with a lot of heart and push the Celtics tonight. Boston was 1-2 in game 6’s last year with the only win coming in the Finals vs. the Lakers, look for that trend to continue, take the Bulls and lay the number. I also LOVE Philly -6 to take care of business at home vs. the Magic. With no Superman OR starting point guard, everyone is going to get their answer why JJ Reddick doesn’t play, because he doesn’t play any D! Look for the Philly guards to have big games and win this one. Lastly, look for Portland to stay close in the elimination game (+5.5) vs. the “Rockettes” in a close one. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Behind enemy lines playoff style

Yo, got some great playoff games going in the Association and on the ice, fun to watch but also some good value as well so let’s get to it. To start I LOVE the baby Bulls +8 in game 5 at the new Gaden’. Gordon is going to play although he may not be that effective. Either way if Rose shows up the Bulls should be able to hang and keep this close. They have already played the C’s within 4 points each game in Boston and even won one game so 8 points seems way too much. Take it and bid it. I also like the points with Philly +8 going into Orlando. These teams just know each other too well at this point, and Howard will get his, but this is another game where the road team can win on the court and the 8 points simply ads value to the equation. Now get this, I’m actually going to make a hockey call as well. I love the Caps (-250 I know it’s pricey) at home to complete the comeback against the Rangers. They should have killed them when they had the chance and now the mo’ is all on the Caps side and they are going to close this one out in one of the best series in a long time. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Don't fear the dog in the first round of the NBA

Yo, this is Nicky, it’s been a while since we’ve played NBA round ball but the playoffs are the best time to get busy so let’s get to it. They’re rally giving the home teams a lot of props in the first round, maybe too much for all of the parity in the association. But if they are going to give money away then we are going to take it. With that said, on Sunday take the 9.5 with Philly going into Orlando as that series is much closer than a 3-6, and take the 7 with Nawlins’ at Denver this evening. I know if the Nuggets lose then Karl is done but 7 is just too much lumber for them to cover because CP3 will keep this game close. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up! Check all of the current betting lines in Major League Baseball and the NHL playoffs in the Player's Club Room, or discuss the lines in the PC Chat rooms.

NBA Betting Lines


Monday, January 19, 2009

NFL Playoffs

This continues to be the ‘season of the dog’ in the NFL playoffs with the dog covering 75% of the games this year. The trend continued on Sunday morning as the Cards got up big to start the game and were never out of the money at any time during the game making for an easy Sunday afternoon, you gotta LOVE home dawgs. The Steelers got a little pride back for ‘fav players’ by taking care of business at home, but using that strategy over the last 3 weeks would have lost you more money than being long on the market, and it wasn’t enough to generate any enthusiasm over this years Super Bowl matchup. But the question of the day is..would you take that big number after last year’s upset? Let us know in the Players’ Club chat rooms and blogs.
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.