Friday, October 31, 2008

Behind enemy lines week 9

Yo’ we hit the speed bump last week en route to .700 as we split last week going 2-3 in college and in the league, we’ll refrain from the last minute picks going forward, taking us to 8-8 in college and 9-7 in the league so we gotta punch the clock. Here’s what we like to get back on track. In college I like Arkansas (+7.5) hosting Tulsa. An SEC team at home getting dised’ by a non BCS team who may be the beneficiary of a weak schedule, getting more than a touch at home? I’m going to take the value. I also like the over (75) in the Texas shootout between Texas and Texas Tech. In the League I like the Giants (-9.5) to take care of the CaBoys’ without Romo who will have all kinds of problems moving the ball and midway through the week didn’t know who was going to taking the snaps. Lastly, I like the Eagles (-6.5) to go on the road and beat the SeaChickens who have not won a game outside of their division. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Behind Enemy Lines, Week 8

Didn’t I tell yous’ I would take care of ya? 3-1 last weekend to get back in the swing, and we were a bad penalty from going 4-0, as Missouri kept it close for us, well the Titanic was closer to port but they were close enough to cover 21. The “Head Ball Coach” got nipped with 4 minutes to go and cost us our cover taking us to 7-6 for the year. In the League we call the so-called upset (GB over Indy) and it so obvious that I almost thought about breaking the rules and bet more than the normal unit, but as I mentioned in week one this is about discipline and money management. In the Saints/Jags game Reggie Bush going down helped us out but we had more than a touchdown to give just the same as the game went way under the 44.5. It’s nice to have a no duress Sunday every once in a while, taking our record to 8-5 for the year. We got a little work to get to .700 so let’s get to it. I like Vandy (-9.5) hosting Duke on Saturday. I know Chris Nickson is probable to play for Vandy but more important is Boyette (RB) for Duke who if he does play will not be 100% and Duke will have real problems moving the ball. On the quant side Vandy is 6-1 ATS this year and 6-0 ATS vs. Duke since 1992. Next, I like Penn St (-2.5) at Ohio State. I know we got burned earlier this year going into the fire (TX/OU), but this is not a rivalry game even though the loser is eliminated from the NCS picture. Penn St. is 5-1 ATS this year, 5-1 as a favorite and OSU is 0-4 ATS their last 4 home games. In the League I like the over (41) in the Monday Night Indy/Tennessee game, with no running game Indy will have to put it in the air and rest assured with no Freeny OR Sanders the Titans will score above their average. Lastly I like the Chargers (-3)to go across the pond and pick up a big win against the “Bushless” Saints in a game neither of them wants to play, but the Chargers can catch Denver with a win and forget about that terrible start to the season. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
Late Friday nighe editions: A couple of unders/overs have jumped out at me. First the OVER (53) on the USC/Zona game on Saturday, and the UNDER (36.5) in the Ravens/Raiders game. Buy the hook so you don't get nipped on a 20-16 game.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Behind Enemy Lines Week 7

Well I gotta admit it has been a while since I got it handed to me like I did in college last week 0-2 after I broke a cardinal rule on rivalry games (always take those points) but I over estimated the Sooners defense and that cost me. Anyway we’re 6-5 for the year and need to get back up to that .700 pct so let’s grab a gun and stand a post. Firstly, I like Kansas +21 at Oklahoma. I know they will have something to prove after last weeks loss but Kansas was a top ten school earlier this year and they can play D so three touchdowns is a little too much. For the quants I got some dope too: Kansas is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games, 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road, and 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road. Next I like The Head Ball Coach and South Carolina (+3.5) at home vs. LSU. You know the rule when playing dogs, don’t take a team that you don’t think can win on the field, and I think the other USC will have some tricks up their sleeve for the Tigers whom have been exposed as just an average team and I LOVE home dogs in the SEC. In the NFL you gotta love that under (44.5) in the Saint/Panthers game, solely on the quant numbers:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing New Orleans

Lastly, go play the Packers +2 hosting Indy. Two starting running backs for Indy are out, plus they are outside in the elements and even though they have played well over the last two weeks, they are still a bad road team and the change of the seasons won’t help them much either. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!!

Friday, October 10, 2008

Behind Enemy Lines Week 6

We got a busy week with a lot of good stuff on the board so let’s get to it. We got back-doored by WV giving up a late one to Rutgers causing us a split in college so we didn’t gain any ground, (now 6-3 on the year ) but we’ll get that back this week as I have really “labbed” this week, which all you stat guys will love and got some good stuff. We start off with Texas Tech(-21) laying a HUGE number hosting Nebraska, but relax they will cover and here’s why:
-Texas Tech is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
-Texas Tech is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Nebraska
Current streaks - Nebraska has lost 2 straight, Texas Tech has won 5 straight games.
I know it’s never good to go out on a limb when there is low-level fruit to pick, but these games should be good ones to call. I like the Badgers (+6) to hang with Penn State at home. If they drop another their season is over and they play so tough at home and are due for a win after two disappointing losses. For you quants, Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Penn State and 7-3 in October. Lastly, you talk about getting involved in a brawl that might be better to watch but I’m going to take the Sooners (-6.5 buy the hook if your book has it at 7) vs. Texas. They are both good teams and I know the rule is usually to take the points in a game like this, but I’m not sold on the Longhorns’ schedule and here’s some more data for you. Oklahoma:
When playing in October are 9-1 ATS
When playing on grass are 9-1 ATS
After outgaining opponent are 8-2 ATS
When playing within the conference are 8-2 ATS
That’s the college chowder, back with the League picks in a little bit, in the meantime, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
In the League I love the Over between the Denver and Jville (38.5), Denver never plays one lick of defense and the Jags running game will always be there. Another give me is are the Saints -5 going into San Francisco. Philly is almost in a must win situation playing in the toughest division in football and this will seem like a bye week compared to the competition that they are used to. That's the chowder, I'm Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, October 3, 2008

Behind Enemy Lines Week 5

Wow, now we got that same swagger that we had last year, after going 3-1 last week we raised our record in college to 5-2 in college and 4-3 in the League. There are a few games I like on the board so let’s get to it. On the scholastic front I LOVE Oklahoma -26 to defend their top ranking against Baylor. I know it’s a lot of cheese but the Sooners will cut through it. The second game I like is West Virginia (-14) hosting Rutgers. For you quants out there here are the numbers for you to chew on. Oklahoma is 16-6 ats when playing with 6 or less days rest. Also, Bayor is 4 - 12 against conference opponents, and lastly, OKLAHOMA is 5-1 against the spread versus BAYLOR since 1992. West VIRGINIA is 7-0 straight up against RUTGERS since 1992 At HOME and 14-2 overall.
In the League I’m gonna lay a huge number again with the Caboys (-17) to come back after losing a tough game at home to the ‘Skins and cover a big number. To finish things up play the Saints at home -5 vs. the Vikings on Monday night. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.