Friday, September 26, 2008

Behind enemy lines - Week 4

Didn’t I tell ya I gotcha back? It was nice to get a sweep for a change. The big swings usually start to even out once there is some solid data to work with. It was nice to get a sweep under our belt, going 2-0 last weekend with Vandy and the Titans. So at 3-2 in both college and pro let’s try to get a little separation on what I hope will be a “road dog weekend”. On Saturday I like Colorado +1.5 on the road at a very over rated Florida State team. I understand that Colorado hasn’t been a monster on the road the last two years but in that regard, Fla St. is 0-6 as a home fave from 3.5 – 7 points, and 2 – 8 ATS as a fav in general up to 10 points. I also like Bama’ getting points in what should be a touch SEC rivalry game. I always like a little margin for error particularly when they can easily win the game on the field as well. In the League I like the Saints (-5.5 at home to the Niners) to rebound after Gra-Titanica shanked it wide against Denver. Lastly, in the annual Cowboys vs. Indians western, I’m go to go with the Cheyenne Indians to go into Little Big Horn and not get slaughtered. The Redskins (+11) seems to be way too many points in a rivalry that always seems to be close. Crack a brew, there will be lots of good games to watch. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
300 X 250

Friday, September 19, 2008

Behind Enemy Lines Week 3

Ok, we made it through the first couple weeks at .500 (2-2 in both college and pro) with all of our fingers and toes, and you don’t really have any information to go on so we’re in good shape. The Men of Troy took care of business for us, but we sure went down the toilet with the Fish and Titans in NFL, but hey, any week above ground is a good week so let’s get back at it. I like Wake Forest(+4) at Florida St. the ACC is down this year but Wake may just be the best of the bunch, and they always play tough on the road to begin with, on top of that you’re going to throw in more than a field goal? I’ll take it and bid it. For all of you quants out there, Wake is 10-3 ATS after 2 straight up wins and Fla St. is 1-4 after 2 straight up wins, both have won 2 straight. Laslty, I like getting points with two ranked conference opponents (wake #18 fla st. #25).

In the league we’re crossing over to the other side of the team that took our money last week. I like Tennessee (-4.5) vs. Houston, not just because historically the Texans are a terrible road team but they are 1-4 ATS as a road dog 3.5 to 7 (5 point spread) and the Titans play divisional opponents very tough (11-2 ATS vs division opponents) and that only improves at home. I don’t like laying more than a field goal in inter-division games but even with the head case on the sidelines, the Titans may actually be a BETTER team. In three weeks this line would have been 7 ½. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, September 12, 2008

Behind enemy lines week two

Ok, so the Domers got it together way to late in the game to cover that kind of lumber and it cost us an L, but Pitt rebounded the way we thought and we ended the week 1-1 (1-2 for the year) so we got a little work to do. On the pro side, we had our cover in the first quarter and never looked back, I fell asleep at half and woke up with a wod of cash in my pocket. So we’re 1-0 there. Now some things are starting to unfold and we actually have some on the field activity to accompany the quantitative data, here’s where we separate the men from the boys and girls from the women, so let’s get to it.

I can’t believe that USC is only laying 11.5! This game looks so good I’m afraid of a bear trap, I mean I would bet this thing twice if I could. Numbers out the window, with or without Wells, SC has lost ONE GAME at home under Pom Pom Pete in that game their Q went down with an injury, but still finished. Moreover, for all of you ‘stat guys’, USC us 23-3 when it has had two weeks to prepare AND their average margin of victory vs. Big-10 opponents is 28 over the last eight games, in short take it and bid it. In the League I like the Bengals (-1) vs. that soap opera that has become the Tenn Titans. It would actually be an even better value if VY wasn’t wandering the streets in search of a Bourbon and a friend as they are better team without him at the helm. Ok, don’t shoot me but I like the tuna byproducts (Dolphins +7.5) at the Arizona Cardinals. That’s a big cover for an offense that has their franchise Q sitting in a hot tub full of cheerleaders instead of on the field. Plus I like the mo’ they showed against the Jets and they won’t go 0-2 without a fight. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, September 5, 2008

Weekend of September 5

Ok, so we were on the wagon for so long that we needed a little action. Hopefully you had fun with it but whoda’ thought that Fulmer would get it handed to him in the second half like that by Neuheisel, Chow, and Co? Just the same, congrats to the Bruins for ruining our opening day, I’ll make it up to you, ya know I’m good for it. As I mentioned on the audio I love ND (-22) to wipe up on the privileged kids from San Diego. To make up for the Tennessee debacle at the Rose Bowl last week, take the Pitt Panthers(-13) to bounce back against Buffalo(not the Bills) after getting knocked out of the top 25 by the perennial powerhouse that is Bowling Green. On Sunday I know we’re jumping in without testing the water first, but I do like the Steelers(-6) at home against the Texans. As I mentioned on the audio they are 5-1 their last 6, and 35-16 ATS at the Ketchup Kingdom. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, Stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.