Friday, February 22, 2008

Behind enemy lines NBA edition

Ok, Friday in the NBA has a plethora of games to choose from but here’s what we like ahead of a big college weekend. I like the Bucks +12 on the road against the Pistons. I know Milwaukee had dropped the first two meetings this season by an average of 35.5 points and ended a four-game losing streak by beating Detroit 103-98, and that Detroit is 0-2 since the break. Further more the Bucks, are in last place in the Central Division, 19 games behind the first-place Pistons. Lastly, for you ‘quants’ the Bucks are 1-5 ats when they are a dog of 9points or more. BUT….The telling stat in this game is that the Bucks average better than 103 points on the road, and can always score, as opposed to the Pistons whom average 86.7 points at home. The Pistons will win, and maybe easily, but 12 is too much lumber for that team to cover, even at home.

Another catch in the net is Denver -4 at Chicago. Even though this is one of the consensus favorites (85%+) I still like it. On the quant side the Nuggets are 5-1 ats against the Central Division, and the Bulls are 9-14 ats when playing a team with a winning record. Qualitatively, the Nuggets have to win the ‘should wins’ if they are going to get into the mix in the West, which has gotten much stronger in the midst of the recent trading frenzy. Buy the .5 point, and take it down to 3.5. Just for kicks, the Nuggets are 9-1 ats on Friday night games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky "the fish,stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

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12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.