Saturday, January 26, 2008

Behind enemy lines Super Bowl XLII

Ok, we had a bad Divisional Playoff dropping our record for the year to 32-14-1, and Vegas was not to kind to playing the favs’ on that weekend. So now we need to finish strong so let’s get to it. There are too many story lines for this Super Bowl so let’s only look at the quantitative data, and as usual it all comes down to a gut feeling. With that said I, like most people, have had the Patriots on as the "local" game every week because of the unbeaten streak and have seen every game they have played. I'm a firm believer the reason why they have not covered lately has more to do with the weather than the competition getting close. The last game was played in Giant Stadium, in bad weather, and they still would have covered 10pts. In good weather, on a neutral field, with two weeks to prepare, the Pats win and cover. Just the same here is the data for all of you quants, which favors the G-men. That's the chowder, thanks for your views this year, hope you road the train, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Here is the data favoring the Giants:

# Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
# Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Although the favorites over the last 18 years are an impressive 14-4 (78 percent) straight up in Super Bowls, but only 9-7-2 (56 percent) against the spread (ATS). Of the six top-ranked offensive teams that have won the Super Bowl since 1990, not one of them had a defense ranked below sixth in the league.

# Giants are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
# Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
# Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
# Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
# Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
# Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
# Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Here’s the data that favors the Patriots:

The Pats are 12-2 after a bye week under Belichick, winning each of the last 10 games when they've had two weeks to prepare. That includes a 6-0 mark in the playoffs with an extra week between games. NE is 13-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. NE is 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games on grass. The last nine Super Bowls the winning team has had a higher ranked offense than defense.


Anonymous said...

Taking the Giants +14 early was sharp because you can now middle as low as -11 or do what I'm going to do, which is take New England -14 for big plus money (because I was one of those sharps who grabbed the Giants +14 for just this purpose). Believe me, a lot of those immediate NYG +14 bets were made by people who have no intention of rooting for the Giants on Super Bowl Sunday.

Anonymous said...

I say the Giants gave the Patriots a huge scare on December 29th and now there is zero chance the Patriots will treat this team as anything less than top competition. So now you're up against what is indisputably the best football team of all-time giving their strongest, most focused effort of the entire 18-0 season. Going against this 2007 Patriots team when they're at their most determined, and rested, and needing just one more win to cement their place in just gambling suicide. What it boils down to, for me, is this. I have my reasons for believing that the pointspread-mashing Patriots of weeks 1-11 are the Patriots we're going to see in the Super Bowl, and NOT the increasingly weary, non-covering Patriots of weeks 12-17 and the playoffs. So if you buy that (and I buy it, BIGTIME), forget about seeing New England labor once again with a decent opponent. Picture instead what we all saw in September, October, and half of November, which was unprecedented gridiron destruction. Do you want your money flying in the face of that team? Because that's what team is showing up for the Patriots, the ruthless one that buried teams and poured it on late just to make their point.

Anonymous said...

#1) If you can or want to, can you post on this thread what sportsbooks have the best lines? I know you are on the under 55, all i can get online is o/u 53.5 and the PATS -11.

The lines here are pretty much -12 and 54.

#2) Do you think the line will go lower than 11? Any chance it makes it to 10 by game time?

No and no. If you can lay 11 now then DO IT.

#3) What do you think of NE -3 1st quarter and -7 1st h? ELI will be new to the big game, and its just another sunday for brady....

Obviously I like both, but if you can't get even money on that -7, then just stick to laying the 11 for the game.

#4) The Giants Under 21 team points.... I want to wait and hope to get 21.5....i dont think they score that many though...

I love this prop, as I've already mentioned that I think the Giants top out at 13 points in this game.

#5)Do you think this is good enough value on the alternate line betting ....NE -14.5 +150 , NE -17.5 you know if I can get better odds somewhere??

Those prices are actually better than what I've seen so far. I'd recommend NE -14.5 +150 but that -17.5 +185 is nothing great.

#7) Plexico Burress over 4.5 receptions....I know belichek will not let him have 11 for 150+ like the packers did, but he is tall and eli will throw to him at least 10-12 times in the game imo....

Probably a good play as Eli will have to throw all game long once the G-Men quickly fall behind 14-0.

Anonymous said...

Anyone else fall into this category? I've been a fan of the G-men since the late 70's. I've been a bigger fan of money since i was was a tot. I'm wrestling with the idea of throwing most of my bankroll on the pats -11, -11.5. It is going to feel really weird rooting for the PATS to cover while wearing an LT Jersey and Giants cap on Suoerbowl Sunday in front of all my friends and family. I don't want to miss this opportunity to make $$$, yet I don't want to miss the Opportunity of rooting for my team in the biggest sporting event of the year. Bittersweet may be the word that defines SB Sunday for me.

Anonymous said...

shame on you!!! NEVER bet against your club, unless it is the money line to pay for your drinks to ease your pain. Otherwise win it all and have the dream day or stay off the line! Think back to when New England was a 14-point dog to the Lambs! What kind of day do you think they had!!! Bet the G-Men and have a great day!

Anonymous said...

I recall seeing numbers that support the favorites ATS with two weeks off after the Championship game as compared to a one week layoff.

Anyone have these ATS numbers handy?

12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.