Saturday, January 26, 2008

Behind enemy lines Super Bowl XLII

Ok, we had a bad Divisional Playoff dropping our record for the year to 32-14-1, and Vegas was not to kind to playing the favs’ on that weekend. So now we need to finish strong so let’s get to it. There are too many story lines for this Super Bowl so let’s only look at the quantitative data, and as usual it all comes down to a gut feeling. With that said I, like most people, have had the Patriots on as the "local" game every week because of the unbeaten streak and have seen every game they have played. I'm a firm believer the reason why they have not covered lately has more to do with the weather than the competition getting close. The last game was played in Giant Stadium, in bad weather, and they still would have covered 10pts. In good weather, on a neutral field, with two weeks to prepare, the Pats win and cover. Just the same here is the data for all of you quants, which favors the G-men. That's the chowder, thanks for your views this year, hope you road the train, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Here is the data favoring the Giants:

# Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
# Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Although the favorites over the last 18 years are an impressive 14-4 (78 percent) straight up in Super Bowls, but only 9-7-2 (56 percent) against the spread (ATS). Of the six top-ranked offensive teams that have won the Super Bowl since 1990, not one of them had a defense ranked below sixth in the league.

# Giants are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
# Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
# Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
# Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
# Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
# Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
# Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Here’s the data that favors the Patriots:

The Pats are 12-2 after a bye week under Belichick, winning each of the last 10 games when they've had two weeks to prepare. That includes a 6-0 mark in the playoffs with an extra week between games. NE is 13-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. NE is 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games on grass. The last nine Super Bowls the winning team has had a higher ranked offense than defense.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Behind enemy lines- dvisional playoffs

Well, not buying the point in the Jags/Steelers game kept us under .500 last week (1-2-1) and (31-11-1 for the year) so we got some make-up work to let’s get to it. Starting with the Saturday games, despite setting records and the stigma of the “Frozen Tundra” Farve is 1-2 his last 3 home playoff games, 2-5 his last 7, and thrown 16 picks to 12 TD’s over that span, this one will be close. I like the Seachickens(+8) going into Green Bay as Holmgren makes his return to the Lambeau against a team he knows as well as anyone. Next, I LOVE the Patriots(-12) vs. the Jags. After this game is over people will be asking themselves “why didn’t I see that?” as a Belichick defense with two weeks to prepare cooks up something so filthy that David Garrard doesn’t know what hit him. The Pats will put 8 in the box, force him to throw, and be waiting when he does. On Sunday, play the Colts(-8.5) vs. the Superchargers who are without Antonio Gates, meaning the colts can bring Sanders up to help stop LT, and that means that Rivers has to beat them, and I’ll take that bet. Lastly, I like the G-Men(+8) going into Dallas as Romo has yet to win a playoff game and I subscribe to the notion that beating an NFL team 3 times in one year is tough to do. They may win it, but the pressure the Giants will put on the Cancun Cowboy will keep it close, take the points. That’s the chowder, I’m Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Behind enemy lines, playoff trenches

Coming off our third straight unbeaten week (2-0-1) the record for the season is now 30-11-1 after the Skins and Superchargers took care of their business, the ONE TIME we don’t buy down the point we get burned as the Titans ended up pushing with the Colts depending when you got in.

Now it’s playoff time and time to separate the men from the boys so let’s get to it. On Saturday I like the Sea Chickens (-3 buy it down) to continue their winning ways at home. The Hawks’ have been two totally different teams this year, have a great home record but less than stellar on the road. They have beaten up on the Skins’ before in the playoffs, and look for them to do so again. In the AFC I love getting points at home and look for the Steelers (+2) to put 8 in the box and make the Jags beat them from the air, which they may not be able to do. They have also never lost twice at home to the same team in one season so I’m going to take the two points here, this also makes for a great teaser game. On Sunday the Giants are going to understand why that week of rest is so priceless as they are going to get beat by a much fresher Tampa Bay(-3) squad. Lastly,
Despite them playing so well lately, I like the Titans(+9) to play the Chargers tough. The game in Tennessee went into overtime and this will be close as well. An unexpected3-day storm has hit California and the track will be muddy and slow. White and Young will play for the Titans and Fisher will find a way to keep this one close, another great teaser. Let’s keep the Mo’ going, that’s the chowder, I’m Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Quants Corner..70% of the action is on the Jags. The Steelers are 1-4 vs. the spread their last 5 home playoff games, and are 1-6 their las 7 vs. AFC teams. The Jags are 11-5 vs the spread this season, and 5-0 ATS their last 5 vs. teams with winning records. They are also 6-0 ATS their last 6 as a favorite. All of this and I'm going the other way.
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.