Sunday, December 14, 2008

Behind Enemy Lines...3 weeks to go

Ok, so yoous thought I was not gonna get to the .700 mark did ya? Well we got 3 weeks left and this is where we separate the Men from the Boys and the Girls from the Women so let’s get to it. In college we’re done until bowl season gets into full swing but after a great 07’ in 08’ we just go over the .540 mark, but in the League we’ve done much better 14-10 and we’ll hit the goal. This week I love the ‘Falcones’ +3 at home fighting for their playoff lives against the Bucs. I know Tampa is a good team and coming off a loss last week but if the ATL don’t answer the bell they’re done and at home I think they’ll keep their hopes alive. Next up I like the worst to first Fins (-7) to play well against the Niners who shot their wod last week in upsetting the Jets at home. In a must win for the J-E-T-S based on their remaining schedule and with the Team of the Decade breathing down their necks they’ll get it done following two straight losses. Take it and bid it. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Behind Enemy Lines Week 13

Yo, the season’s coming to an end and rivalry week is always a tough week to call but we’ve got to make it happen. Last weekend we gave up our gains in college as we played a fav and dog in college, as the Huskies couldn’t close the deal and lost in overtime, dropping our record to 12-12 on the year. In the League we picked a bad day to back Donovan McNabb as he had his worst game since he came out of Syracuse, and saved a little dignity with the GMen coming though, giving us a split on the day, and keeping us +4 (14-10) for the year. So navigating through rivalry week will be a daunting task but let’s get to it. On Saturday I like Texas Tech(-21) to blow out Baylor as they have one more game to complete their best season in history, Baylor will not stand in the way of a potential Big-12 championship game. Next I’m going to stay in the Big-12, but on the other side with Mizzu(-16) against Kansas. I know it’s a bitter rivalry game but Kansas can’t stop anyone and they’ve already started defending their hoops title. In the League I lake the Skins(+3.5) hosting the Giants. Firstly, I love home dogs in tough divisions, but add in a questionable Jacobs and I’ll take the points. Next I like the Super Chargers(-4.5), who must be sick of losing heartbreaking games, and win one at home by a touch or more. Lastly, I like the Bills (-6.5) to get back on track against a bad San Francisco team in a must win situation. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Behind Enemy Lines week 12

This is Nicky back for more punishment after splitting in both college and the League last week going 2-2 (12-10 for the year in college 13-9 pro) we really need to run the table to get to .700 so let's take a look at what's on the board. In college I like Washington (-7 buy down to -6.5) to win the Apple Cup and send Winningham out a winner. Next you gotta play the points in the rivalry game between BYU (+7) and Utah, they can win the game on the field and getting 7 in this game should be huge. On Sunday I don’t see how the Gmen are only laying 3 at Zona, and it looks like a bear trap but I gotta play it. Lastly, I like Philly(+1.5) on the road at the Ravens. Philly is still 5-4 but that is only good for last place in the toughest division in the NFL. They need a win to stay close and I think they’ll get it. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Behind Enemy Lines week 11

Yo, this is Nicky back in da trenches wit ya for another week. Go figure we would get back doored by the Stanford Cardinal to stop us from going 2-0 again so we had to settle for a split of 1-1 making us 11-9 for the year. In the League we were on both side of the spectrum with a great call on the Chefs giving the Super Charges all they could handle, but were just going the wrong way on the Bills as they actually looked worse then the did the week before, so another 1-1 split taking us to 12-8 on the year. We just need a little bit of a run to get to .700 on the year and this could be a good week so let’s get to it. There are some big numbers out there but if the top schools want to climb to the top of the BCS they had better get over the numbers first, so we like Texas -13 going to Kansas who can’t seem to stop anyone. Next I don’t think Colorado will be able to stop Ok St. and 17 is a big road number but with a controlled running game the Cowboys will be up to the challenge. In the League this week marks the end of the Titan unbeaten streak as the Jags (+3) getting juice at home is too much value to pass up. Buy the hook and take it to 3.5 and back up the truck. I also like Tampa Bay at home vs. the Vikes. I know AP has been a monster lately but I think the Bucs are going to rise up in this one. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Behind enemy lines week 10

Sorry so late with the picks for this week but I was waiting for a bit of injury info to come over the wire but it only confirmed the direction we were looking. We did what we needed to do by going 2-0 in both on the collegiate and pro side as one of the greatest college games ever (TX/TTech) went over for us and the SEC didn’t let us down with Arkansas, pushing our record to 10-8 on the year. In the league the NFC East continued to be good money as the G-Men and Philly we no duress games, taking our record to 11-7 on the year. Keeping above .500 and still looking for enough separation to take us to .700 so let’s get to it. I like Boise St.(-35) to run it up against Utah St. as they try to make a move in the BCS. In the Pac-10 I like Oregon (-13.5) to hold serve on Homecoming week against Stanford. In the League I love Buffalo (+3.5) at the “passless Pats”. Giving you quant data is useless because this is not the same New England team that has taken the field the last 5 years. Buffalo has the run defense to give NE problems and enough air to expose their questionable secondary. These division rivals usually play tight even when Brady was around, take the points. Next, I like the big points given to the Chefs (15.5) going into San Diego. KC has the running game to keep this game close and in a division game getting what amounts to 3 scores is a monster number. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, October 31, 2008

Behind enemy lines week 9

Yo’ we hit the speed bump last week en route to .700 as we split last week going 2-3 in college and in the league, we’ll refrain from the last minute picks going forward, taking us to 8-8 in college and 9-7 in the league so we gotta punch the clock. Here’s what we like to get back on track. In college I like Arkansas (+7.5) hosting Tulsa. An SEC team at home getting dised’ by a non BCS team who may be the beneficiary of a weak schedule, getting more than a touch at home? I’m going to take the value. I also like the over (75) in the Texas shootout between Texas and Texas Tech. In the League I like the Giants (-9.5) to take care of the CaBoys’ without Romo who will have all kinds of problems moving the ball and midway through the week didn’t know who was going to taking the snaps. Lastly, I like the Eagles (-6.5) to go on the road and beat the SeaChickens who have not won a game outside of their division. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Behind Enemy Lines, Week 8

Didn’t I tell yous’ I would take care of ya? 3-1 last weekend to get back in the swing, and we were a bad penalty from going 4-0, as Missouri kept it close for us, well the Titanic was closer to port but they were close enough to cover 21. The “Head Ball Coach” got nipped with 4 minutes to go and cost us our cover taking us to 7-6 for the year. In the League we call the so-called upset (GB over Indy) and it so obvious that I almost thought about breaking the rules and bet more than the normal unit, but as I mentioned in week one this is about discipline and money management. In the Saints/Jags game Reggie Bush going down helped us out but we had more than a touchdown to give just the same as the game went way under the 44.5. It’s nice to have a no duress Sunday every once in a while, taking our record to 8-5 for the year. We got a little work to get to .700 so let’s get to it. I like Vandy (-9.5) hosting Duke on Saturday. I know Chris Nickson is probable to play for Vandy but more important is Boyette (RB) for Duke who if he does play will not be 100% and Duke will have real problems moving the ball. On the quant side Vandy is 6-1 ATS this year and 6-0 ATS vs. Duke since 1992. Next, I like Penn St (-2.5) at Ohio State. I know we got burned earlier this year going into the fire (TX/OU), but this is not a rivalry game even though the loser is eliminated from the NCS picture. Penn St. is 5-1 ATS this year, 5-1 as a favorite and OSU is 0-4 ATS their last 4 home games. In the League I like the over (41) in the Monday Night Indy/Tennessee game, with no running game Indy will have to put it in the air and rest assured with no Freeny OR Sanders the Titans will score above their average. Lastly I like the Chargers (-3)to go across the pond and pick up a big win against the “Bushless” Saints in a game neither of them wants to play, but the Chargers can catch Denver with a win and forget about that terrible start to the season. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
Late Friday nighe editions: A couple of unders/overs have jumped out at me. First the OVER (53) on the USC/Zona game on Saturday, and the UNDER (36.5) in the Ravens/Raiders game. Buy the hook so you don't get nipped on a 20-16 game.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Behind Enemy Lines Week 7

Well I gotta admit it has been a while since I got it handed to me like I did in college last week 0-2 after I broke a cardinal rule on rivalry games (always take those points) but I over estimated the Sooners defense and that cost me. Anyway we’re 6-5 for the year and need to get back up to that .700 pct so let’s grab a gun and stand a post. Firstly, I like Kansas +21 at Oklahoma. I know they will have something to prove after last weeks loss but Kansas was a top ten school earlier this year and they can play D so three touchdowns is a little too much. For the quants I got some dope too: Kansas is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games, 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road, and 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road. Next I like The Head Ball Coach and South Carolina (+3.5) at home vs. LSU. You know the rule when playing dogs, don’t take a team that you don’t think can win on the field, and I think the other USC will have some tricks up their sleeve for the Tigers whom have been exposed as just an average team and I LOVE home dogs in the SEC. In the NFL you gotta love that under (44.5) in the Saint/Panthers game, solely on the quant numbers:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing New Orleans

Lastly, go play the Packers +2 hosting Indy. Two starting running backs for Indy are out, plus they are outside in the elements and even though they have played well over the last two weeks, they are still a bad road team and the change of the seasons won’t help them much either. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring, and keep your gloves up!!

Friday, October 10, 2008

Behind Enemy Lines Week 6

We got a busy week with a lot of good stuff on the board so let’s get to it. We got back-doored by WV giving up a late one to Rutgers causing us a split in college so we didn’t gain any ground, (now 6-3 on the year ) but we’ll get that back this week as I have really “labbed” this week, which all you stat guys will love and got some good stuff. We start off with Texas Tech(-21) laying a HUGE number hosting Nebraska, but relax they will cover and here’s why:
-Texas Tech is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
-Texas Tech is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Nebraska
Current streaks - Nebraska has lost 2 straight, Texas Tech has won 5 straight games.
I know it’s never good to go out on a limb when there is low-level fruit to pick, but these games should be good ones to call. I like the Badgers (+6) to hang with Penn State at home. If they drop another their season is over and they play so tough at home and are due for a win after two disappointing losses. For you quants, Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Penn State and 7-3 in October. Lastly, you talk about getting involved in a brawl that might be better to watch but I’m going to take the Sooners (-6.5 buy the hook if your book has it at 7) vs. Texas. They are both good teams and I know the rule is usually to take the points in a game like this, but I’m not sold on the Longhorns’ schedule and here’s some more data for you. Oklahoma:
When playing in October are 9-1 ATS
When playing on grass are 9-1 ATS
After outgaining opponent are 8-2 ATS
When playing within the conference are 8-2 ATS
That’s the college chowder, back with the League picks in a little bit, in the meantime, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
In the League I love the Over between the Denver and Jville (38.5), Denver never plays one lick of defense and the Jags running game will always be there. Another give me is are the Saints -5 going into San Francisco. Philly is almost in a must win situation playing in the toughest division in football and this will seem like a bye week compared to the competition that they are used to. That's the chowder, I'm Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, October 3, 2008

Behind Enemy Lines Week 5

Wow, now we got that same swagger that we had last year, after going 3-1 last week we raised our record in college to 5-2 in college and 4-3 in the League. There are a few games I like on the board so let’s get to it. On the scholastic front I LOVE Oklahoma -26 to defend their top ranking against Baylor. I know it’s a lot of cheese but the Sooners will cut through it. The second game I like is West Virginia (-14) hosting Rutgers. For you quants out there here are the numbers for you to chew on. Oklahoma is 16-6 ats when playing with 6 or less days rest. Also, Bayor is 4 - 12 against conference opponents, and lastly, OKLAHOMA is 5-1 against the spread versus BAYLOR since 1992. West VIRGINIA is 7-0 straight up against RUTGERS since 1992 At HOME and 14-2 overall.
In the League I’m gonna lay a huge number again with the Caboys (-17) to come back after losing a tough game at home to the ‘Skins and cover a big number. To finish things up play the Saints at home -5 vs. the Vikings on Monday night. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, September 26, 2008

Behind enemy lines - Week 4

Didn’t I tell ya I gotcha back? It was nice to get a sweep for a change. The big swings usually start to even out once there is some solid data to work with. It was nice to get a sweep under our belt, going 2-0 last weekend with Vandy and the Titans. So at 3-2 in both college and pro let’s try to get a little separation on what I hope will be a “road dog weekend”. On Saturday I like Colorado +1.5 on the road at a very over rated Florida State team. I understand that Colorado hasn’t been a monster on the road the last two years but in that regard, Fla St. is 0-6 as a home fave from 3.5 – 7 points, and 2 – 8 ATS as a fav in general up to 10 points. I also like Bama’ getting points in what should be a touch SEC rivalry game. I always like a little margin for error particularly when they can easily win the game on the field as well. In the League I like the Saints (-5.5 at home to the Niners) to rebound after Gra-Titanica shanked it wide against Denver. Lastly, in the annual Cowboys vs. Indians western, I’m go to go with the Cheyenne Indians to go into Little Big Horn and not get slaughtered. The Redskins (+11) seems to be way too many points in a rivalry that always seems to be close. Crack a brew, there will be lots of good games to watch. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
300 X 250

Friday, September 19, 2008

Behind Enemy Lines Week 3

Ok, we made it through the first couple weeks at .500 (2-2 in both college and pro) with all of our fingers and toes, and you don’t really have any information to go on so we’re in good shape. The Men of Troy took care of business for us, but we sure went down the toilet with the Fish and Titans in NFL, but hey, any week above ground is a good week so let’s get back at it. I like Wake Forest(+4) at Florida St. the ACC is down this year but Wake may just be the best of the bunch, and they always play tough on the road to begin with, on top of that you’re going to throw in more than a field goal? I’ll take it and bid it. For all of you quants out there, Wake is 10-3 ATS after 2 straight up wins and Fla St. is 1-4 after 2 straight up wins, both have won 2 straight. Laslty, I like getting points with two ranked conference opponents (wake #18 fla st. #25).

In the league we’re crossing over to the other side of the team that took our money last week. I like Tennessee (-4.5) vs. Houston, not just because historically the Texans are a terrible road team but they are 1-4 ATS as a road dog 3.5 to 7 (5 point spread) and the Titans play divisional opponents very tough (11-2 ATS vs division opponents) and that only improves at home. I don’t like laying more than a field goal in inter-division games but even with the head case on the sidelines, the Titans may actually be a BETTER team. In three weeks this line would have been 7 ½. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, September 12, 2008

Behind enemy lines week two

Ok, so the Domers got it together way to late in the game to cover that kind of lumber and it cost us an L, but Pitt rebounded the way we thought and we ended the week 1-1 (1-2 for the year) so we got a little work to do. On the pro side, we had our cover in the first quarter and never looked back, I fell asleep at half and woke up with a wod of cash in my pocket. So we’re 1-0 there. Now some things are starting to unfold and we actually have some on the field activity to accompany the quantitative data, here’s where we separate the men from the boys and girls from the women, so let’s get to it.

I can’t believe that USC is only laying 11.5! This game looks so good I’m afraid of a bear trap, I mean I would bet this thing twice if I could. Numbers out the window, with or without Wells, SC has lost ONE GAME at home under Pom Pom Pete in that game their Q went down with an injury, but still finished. Moreover, for all of you ‘stat guys’, USC us 23-3 when it has had two weeks to prepare AND their average margin of victory vs. Big-10 opponents is 28 over the last eight games, in short take it and bid it. In the League I like the Bengals (-1) vs. that soap opera that has become the Tenn Titans. It would actually be an even better value if VY wasn’t wandering the streets in search of a Bourbon and a friend as they are better team without him at the helm. Ok, don’t shoot me but I like the tuna byproducts (Dolphins +7.5) at the Arizona Cardinals. That’s a big cover for an offense that has their franchise Q sitting in a hot tub full of cheerleaders instead of on the field. Plus I like the mo’ they showed against the Jets and they won’t go 0-2 without a fight. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, September 5, 2008

Weekend of September 5

Ok, so we were on the wagon for so long that we needed a little action. Hopefully you had fun with it but whoda’ thought that Fulmer would get it handed to him in the second half like that by Neuheisel, Chow, and Co? Just the same, congrats to the Bruins for ruining our opening day, I’ll make it up to you, ya know I’m good for it. As I mentioned on the audio I love ND (-22) to wipe up on the privileged kids from San Diego. To make up for the Tennessee debacle at the Rose Bowl last week, take the Pitt Panthers(-13) to bounce back against Buffalo(not the Bills) after getting knocked out of the top 25 by the perennial powerhouse that is Bowling Green. On Sunday I know we’re jumping in without testing the water first, but I do like the Steelers(-6) at home against the Texans. As I mentioned on the audio they are 5-1 their last 6, and 35-16 ATS at the Ketchup Kingdom. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, Stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, August 29, 2008

Happy New Year!!

Well, it is BEST time of year if you are a sports fan, particularly a sports fan who likes to occasionally “dabble” and get a little action. Those of you who are new to the site won’t know me but I go by Nicky “the fish” and I am a combat general in minefield that are the weekly betting lines. What I try to do is walk with you through them, finding value where we can, and approach the season as one long “West Coast Offense” drive. If we show black numbers at the end of the week, then it was a successful week. I don’t parlay, have a “pick of the year” or even a “pick of the season”. I will certainly let you know when I think we got something real and when you should MAYBE deviate from what your standard betting unit is. We don’t try to break the bank, just work our way up the positive side of the ledger a little at a time, but ENJOYING the ride and that’s part of the game. I use both qualitative and quantitative data, but mostly the simple knowledge of how the game is played and who’s on the field or court. Those of you who WERE on the train last year know my track record (please view the history) and that will be hard to top but we’ll give it a shot. Now, we normally would NEVER make a pick on opening week unless you literally have seen a practice in person, are son of a coach, or father or a player, and I am none of the afore mentioned, HOWEVER the Tennessee line at 7 does look attractive and with all of the injuries that UCLA has had in pre-season, it still is not clear how their starting JC quarterback will play in his first D-1 start. I know UCLA was actually a decent home team to place on last year, largely due to the fact that they were usually GETTING points, but at 7, I would buy it down to 6 ½ for one-half my normal units just to get my feet wet. It should be a nice day and a good game to watch, so let’s get started with that one. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Previous 'Catch of the Day' postings.

The Pistons took care of us in game 2 in Boston and I don’t want to go to the well too many times but +5.5 points in a game 5 that will pretty much decide the series is way too much lumber. I like the Pistons on the road to either win or keep it within two possessions. This game will be played in the 80’s unless there is overtime and of course Chauncey’s thigh is a question mark which can always steam the tide but I like the value and even wouldn’t mind the money line for a little chump change. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
I love the Pistons (+3.5) vs. the C’s tonight. Although unbeaten at home, I think game 1 was more the Piston nucleus (Billups, Wallace) not coming to play rather than the Celtics dominating. Now the long layoff is behind them and the Pistons will be all business. We got bit the first game, and I don’t chase as a rule, but Detroit knows how tough it will be to take 4 out of 5 from the team with the best record in the NBA this year and won’t get it that position. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Previous 'Catch of the Day' postings.

I guess there was no need to hedge but we evened up our series predictions at 3-3 by sweeping the second round. On top of that we obviously hit the SA straight line improving the record to 27-6 on the individual games. Tonight I LOVE the Pistons (+4.5). Boston has struggled in each of their first two game 1's, barely beating Atlanta and Cleveland giving the game away. They will not be so lucky vs. Detroit, and the money line looks good as well. Moving in the the semis I like the Lakers(-200) and Pistions(+110) to advance to the finals. Both will be facing a team coming off a game 7, not to mention an OLDER team, and that could cost them the first games of the series and put them in too big of a hole to overcome. Take it and bid it. That's the chowder, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Previous 'Catch of the Day' postings from last week

Ok, so we made up for the first round debacle calling the series by winning the first two series of the second round with the Lakers and Pistons (this years future final) and have one more on the table with the Spurs (-120) in game 7. So be smart and take the opportunity to hedge, as the Spurs are getting points in the last game go the other way for half your stake and you’re guaranteed to walk with a little cash in your pockets. I know, for some that’s not gambling, but the true bettor knows 80% of the game is money management, so we’ve already hit two, hedge on the third series and lets move on to the semi’s. As far as the individual games the Lakers took care of us in game 6 after collapsing in ot in game 4 with cover in hand so we’re 26-6 for the individual games this year. I love the road dog (Cavs +8) which I think is too much for a Game 7 and with King James who can possible take the game over. The C’s should win but the Cavs will be fighting until the end. The only thing that scares me is foul time near the end. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!!

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Nicky's catch of the day May 11

Sorry for the delay but we wanted to confirm something prior to game time so I'll be brief. Darron Williams wrist is sore and he will play but he's not 100% and we LOVE the Lakers +4 take it and bit it. That's the chowder I'm Nicky, talk to you soon.

Ok patrons, we don’t have any individual games to catch up on but there is something that I really like so let’s get to it. The Lakers (-6.5) is a great pick at home for several reasons; the Jazz have too many match-up problems - if they double Kobe, they have to rotate and find the open man, which they don’t have the speed to do. With Pau in the middle working the triangle the Lakers will get too many easy shots. Secondly, Kobe winning the MVP will be even more motivation and he could have a monster game. Also, it appears Boozer slump is due to a little more than just poor shooting. His back is sore and they will need his 20 & 10 if they are going to be game 2, and even without Bynum it isn’t going to happen. Lastly, Jerry Sloan will not let the Jazz lose without a fight, he’s a fouler and will be fouling in the last minute if they are within 3 possessions the Lakers shoot free-throws well and will extend the lead. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Sorry for the delay but nothing has looked good enough to step in the ring for, just not enough value on the straight lines. Anyway, we did go 2-1 with the last picks improving our record to (25-6) for the year but this post is about the next round of playoff series so let’s get to it. Ok, WE GOT HAMMERED on the first round series going 1-3(Wash, Phx, Dallas), but we picked the individual games very well. Either way it’s time to redeem myself, so I like the Spurs -120(not a whole lot of value there), The Lakers even though we’re laying a lot of lumber(-320), The Pistons have good value because of the weaknesses that Philly exposed, so we don’t have to give the store away at -200. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!!

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Previous 'Catch of the Day' postings.

If your books have not cut you off yet after another 2-0 night in the NBA (22-5 for the year) this is where we separate the men from the boys and the girls from the women, as it’s playoff time. Things get more serious now and most of that quantitative data goes out the window as the teams you know from the reg season are NOT the same as in the playoffs, so let’s get to it. We will first cover the series winners then tackle the individual games. In the first round series you’re laying serious juice so you may want to stay off, but if you’ve been playing with us then you know this is about money management and we have plenty in the bank but there is no value with the Lakers -750 and Boston is too expensive at -6000, so in those series we’ll have to find some individual games. I do like Orlando(-320), Washington (E), Dallas (+115) and Phoenix(+115). The ONLY number I like is Philly (+10) in game 1 as they should keep that close. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, April 19, 2008

previous post

Well, we still seem to have a good feel for the NBA as we had another 2-0 night with the Mavs and Knicks, so your books should be pretty much canceling your accounts by now as we move our record to 20-5 or the year. I split again with the last game of the final four hitting the UCLA/Memphis over but missed going with the Heels so we ended the Big Dance at .500. Ok, a couple of things look good tonight so let’s get to it. I like the Lakeshow (-2.5) at home against the Hornets to clinch the Pacific and climb to .5 behind the Hornets for the 1-seed. But tread lightly as New Orleans is 12-3ats vs. the Pacific Division. I also like the Rockettes(-2.5) hosting the Suns for several reasons. Most of all the winner will probably take the 5-seed and avoid a possible first-round match-up with Kobe and the Lakers. Secondly, for you quants, Houston is 22-9ats the second half of the season, 11-3ats on Friday nights, and 20-8ats after 3 or more consecutive wins. So that should be enough data for you. Ok, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, April 11, 2008

previous post

As the Association gets down to it’s final week things are getting tougher to call as the spreads inflate, that’s why it’s been tough for the system to find winners. Just the same we went 2-1 with out last picks to improve to 18-5 in the NBA. The dance has not been so kind as we are .500 as Memphis continues to defy me, so let’s get to it. Sticking with the Dance, I’m am going to take my first over of the year and play the over (133) in the Memphis/UCLA game. The quant data is overwhelming in this one as Memphis games have gone over in their last 5 tourney games, and 4-1 in UCLA’s last 5. This is a tough one because if you like Memphis you have to play the over and if you think UCLA wins it then you either play the under or stay off, I suggest the latter. In the second game there is just too much data that points NC’s (-3) way, they are 15-2ats after a non-conference game and 15-1ats IN non conference games. That’s a combined 30-3ats in games like the one upcoming. Lastly they are 21-6ats when playing against a team with a winning record. This is one of those games where either go with the numbers or stay off. Lastly in the NBA I like Dallas(+6) will play the Lakers tough as it could be a first round preview of the first round match-up, and secondly I like the Knicks, yea I said it, the Knicks(+18) vs. the Hornets as that entire club will be bustin’ it for the new owners to make sure they have a job next year, and even if the Hornets get out to a big lead they will be resting starters for the stretch run. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, April 4, 2008

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That WV game was a tough one to lose as they had the game in control, but that’s why it’s the tournament, right? But we rallied to win the next 2 and go 2-1 for the night and now we got a little cushion above .500 for the tournament. Tonight I look for some great games to watch but tough games to call. The game that I like the most is Mich. St (+5) to upset Memphis and take the first #1 down. The quants LOVE this game as the Spartans are 8-0ats in neutral court games, and 6-1 ats in March games.

In the Association (where we are 16-4) I like, and I know you take risk when you put money on bad teams, but I like the Hawks (-4.5) vs. the Bulls. This is just the playoff v ‘non-playoff’ scenario, and the Hawks need a win. Next I like the Hornets (+7.5) at the Celtics. The NO is 5-1ats vs. the Atlantic division and 10-3 in March. Lastly, I like the Spurs (-12) at home vs. the Twolves the West is open and the Spurs know this is one of the few ‘givens’ that appear on the schedule. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

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All of the books or online services that you people use should be cutting you off about now, as we had another 2-0 night to improve to 16-4 in the Association. But this night is about ‘The Dance’ so let’s get to it. I LOVE the Bruins to win the game but 12.5 is just a ton of points in a tournament game, even in the first round. In the course of the Bruins going 12-0 over the last 12, they are an even 6-6 ATS, as opposed to WKU which is 7-0 ATS their last 7 games. In short, I’m going to take the number (+12.5) in this one. Next, I like West Virginia (pk) vs. The X-Men. Xavier has had to come from behind in both of their victories and WV shoots much to well to give up those types of runs. Lastly, I like The Ville’ (-2) vs. Tennessee as the Patino D’ will take over this game, particularly if Lofton is not 100%. The Cards are peaking at the right time and also have been battle tested in the Big East. Lastly, for the quants, the Vols are 1-5 ATS in tournament games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!!

Ok, we have ventured into the mire that is the NCAA tournament and it has not been easy. We called the WV upset but boy did we go the wrong way on UCLA, so we are still 500 in the Big Dance. Phoenix was easy money in the Association so the record has improved to 14-4 where we are just Kickin’ Arsh and takin’ names, let’s get back into it. In the NBA you gotta love the Spurs (+2) on the road vs. the Magic. This is a qualitative call because of the way the west is still up for grabs and each game means so much, they just have more to lose. I do realize the Spurs are 1-9 ATS as a road dog of 3pts or less, but I still like em’. Lastly, I like the Hornets (-4) at Indiana as there is NO WAY they will let a team at .414 knock them off the top spot in the West. That's the chowder, I'm Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

We had another good night in the association with the Cavs and Warriors taking our record to 13-4 thus far. The dance was not as kind as when the point guard went down UCONN was done, and so were we. Texas helped us out and took care of business in an easy way, so we went 1-1.Today I LOVE West Virginia (+3) vs. Duke. I don’t think it was a wake up call vs. Bellmont in the first game, the truth is they simply are not that good. On the other had WV is good and much more balanced. I also like UCLA (-10 perhaps buy down to 9.5) to cover again. They are not far from home and on the same schedule (thurs/sat) as the weekly pac-10 schedule, they will play well today. In the Association I am still riding the “back down to earth” train and love Phoenix (-5.5) vs the Rockettes as they will soon be back in 7th spot where they belong. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up.

Ok, so the Lake Show came to play last night and dropped us to 11-4 in the association. Today I like Cleveland (-5) vs. the Raptors and Golden State (-4) at home vs. the Rockettes. I like to favs in the dance today as UCONN (-11.5) should handle the San Diego and Texas (-15) should blow out Austin Peay and look to send a message. That's a lot of chowder, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!
ow, they were giving away money last night with the Hornets, and how bout the Sixers ruining Iverson’s return? Anyway another 2-0 night to bring us to 11-3 for the year. Obviously the topic on the table is the Big Dance so let’s get to it. I like South Alabama getting (+4) vs. Butler and Drake (-4) vs. Western Kentucky. In the association play Utah (-4 buy down to 3.5) vs. the ‘Gasoless’ Lakers. That’s the chowder, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Well, the Warriors didn’t show up for us last night but the Pistons won going away so I owe you some juice. Now we are 9-3 in the Association and need a 2-0 night, so let’s get busy. I like the Hornets(-2 buy down to 1.5) to hand the Rockettes their second straight loss tonight, purely for qualitative reasons. However if you need some numbers to make you feel better, the Rockettes are 1-8 ats after scoring 85 points or less. Next I LOVE the Sixers (-1) vs the Nuggets who are on back to back, with Philly fighting for a playoff spot. Philly is 7-1 ats in March, and 17-5 ats the second half of the season. Tournament picks begin tomorrow. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Previous Picks and Post

How bout them Sixers?? Winning ON THE COURT getting a ton, and what about GS 117-106, taking the record to 8-2 in the Association. I see some things I like so it’s time to get back into the fray. Firstly I’m going to change up and play Detroit (-5) at home vs. the Nuggets. I know they are 1-6 against the Northwest Division but I like their momentum and we can’t always be quants. Also I love the Warriors (-2) on the road vs. the Kings. They match up well with them and need to win these types of games to stay in the hunt with less than 20 games to go. Ok, for you lovers of quantitative information GS is 4-1 as a road favorite of less than 3 points. Anyway, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Previous Post

Ok, Dirk not playing was bigger than I thought and the Mavs let me down and broke my streak so our record in The Association is now 6-2. Now back on the road to prosperity with a couple of good games tonight. I like Philly (+9) going to Detroit, because they’ve been playing well (7-3 in their last 10) and now have a shot to move up the playoff food chain. Also in the NBA I like Golden St (-8) vs Toronto w/out Chris Bosh and on back to back. The Warriors have a 2.5 game lead for the last playoff spot in the west, are 4-1 their last 5, and know that the games against the East are must wins down the stretch. That's the chowder, I'm Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Well, we’re on a bit of a roll, we hit two more NBA games to improve our record to 6-1 as the Lakers and Warriors took care of business. There is some good stuff on the board tonight so let’s go to work. First off we start in College where I love Stanford (+10) at UCLA. I know the Bruins beat them at Stanford earlier in the year but the Lopez twins got in foul trouble and one fouled out. The Bruin guards with give Stanford fits but the Cardinal shot blocking and defense down low will give Love trouble. In the NBA the winning streak come to an end in Dallas this evening and after losing 2 straight on the road at LA and Utah the Mavericks get back on the right track tonight. Play the Mavs (-2) at home against the Rockets, even though the quant data points the other way. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Previous Picks

Ok, not a lot of college on the board tonight so we’re going to wait until there is a full slate to choose from. But in the NBA where we are 4-1, we are going go on the road twice with the Lakers (-5) against the Sacramento Kings and the Golden State Warriors (-1). The Lakeshow is coming off a big win at home against the Mavericks, but Pau did not play well after the first quarter so look for him to step it up tonight in the closest thing the NBA has to a rivalry game. The Warriors have been playing well and sit just outside the playoff picture. Look for this one to be tight throughout with GS getting a late cover. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, March 1, 2008

Week of 2/25-3/2

Ok, now that we’re above the water-mark in the NBA(2-1), (1-0) in college let’s look to do a little damage. Tonight even though they are on back-to-back games I like the Nets (-2.5) against the Bucks at home.

There some good data on the quant side for this game: Buy down the half if you can, so you push on the 2-point win.
NEW JERSEY is 4-1 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
NEW JERSEY is 4-1 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons

On the College side I LOVE the Bruins (-8) against Arizona St. I understand that they have Arizona on National TV on Saturday but UCLA won't be looking ahead as they just had the 'lack of effort' conversation posted in the LA times last week and should beat up on a much weaker opponent. Quant side, they are 10-4 ats vs. the Pac-10. That's chowder, I'm Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Previous picks of the day

Ok, both college and pro hoops are getting to crunch time so things are getting tougher to call, but that’s why we’re ‘behind enemy lines’, so let’s get to it. Stepping into the college arena this evening and picking against the number one team in the nation. I like Vandy (+3) at home where they shoot much better and have knocked off the last three number 1’s that have come in there to play.
On the Pro-Side I like the Orlando Magic (-5) at the Nets. Kind of in disarray after the Kidd trade the Nets are more athletic but yet to find a rhythm. The Magic are 4-1 ats when paying a team with a losing record the second half of the year, and 4-1 ats vs. allowing 99 pts per game. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Week of 25-29

Ok, off to a 1-1 start in the NBA so let’s get above 500 tonight with the Mavericks(-9) at home against the Bulls. On the Qualitative side the Mavs have been embarrassed since the Kidd trade and will be looking to send a message tonight. Furthermore with the Rockets winning 12 straight and right behind the Mavs keeps the pressure on to play well or look at dropping to 7 or 8 in the West. On the Quant side the Bulls are on back to back games and are 0-6 ats vs. the Southwest Division.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Behind enemy lines NBA edition

Ok, Friday in the NBA has a plethora of games to choose from but here’s what we like ahead of a big college weekend. I like the Bucks +12 on the road against the Pistons. I know Milwaukee had dropped the first two meetings this season by an average of 35.5 points and ended a four-game losing streak by beating Detroit 103-98, and that Detroit is 0-2 since the break. Further more the Bucks, are in last place in the Central Division, 19 games behind the first-place Pistons. Lastly, for you ‘quants’ the Bucks are 1-5 ats when they are a dog of 9points or more. BUT….The telling stat in this game is that the Bucks average better than 103 points on the road, and can always score, as opposed to the Pistons whom average 86.7 points at home. The Pistons will win, and maybe easily, but 12 is too much lumber for that team to cover, even at home.

Another catch in the net is Denver -4 at Chicago. Even though this is one of the consensus favorites (85%+) I still like it. On the quant side the Nuggets are 5-1 ats against the Central Division, and the Bulls are 9-14 ats when playing a team with a winning record. Qualitatively, the Nuggets have to win the ‘should wins’ if they are going to get into the mix in the West, which has gotten much stronger in the midst of the recent trading frenzy. Buy the .5 point, and take it down to 3.5. Just for kicks, the Nuggets are 9-1 ats on Friday night games. That’s the chowder, I’m Nicky "the fish,stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Behind enemy lines Super Bowl XLII

Ok, we had a bad Divisional Playoff dropping our record for the year to 32-14-1, and Vegas was not to kind to playing the favs’ on that weekend. So now we need to finish strong so let’s get to it. There are too many story lines for this Super Bowl so let’s only look at the quantitative data, and as usual it all comes down to a gut feeling. With that said I, like most people, have had the Patriots on as the "local" game every week because of the unbeaten streak and have seen every game they have played. I'm a firm believer the reason why they have not covered lately has more to do with the weather than the competition getting close. The last game was played in Giant Stadium, in bad weather, and they still would have covered 10pts. In good weather, on a neutral field, with two weeks to prepare, the Pats win and cover. Just the same here is the data for all of you quants, which favors the G-men. That's the chowder, thanks for your views this year, hope you road the train, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Here is the data favoring the Giants:

# Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
# Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Although the favorites over the last 18 years are an impressive 14-4 (78 percent) straight up in Super Bowls, but only 9-7-2 (56 percent) against the spread (ATS). Of the six top-ranked offensive teams that have won the Super Bowl since 1990, not one of them had a defense ranked below sixth in the league.

# Giants are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
# Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
# Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
# Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
# Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
# Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
# Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Here’s the data that favors the Patriots:

The Pats are 12-2 after a bye week under Belichick, winning each of the last 10 games when they've had two weeks to prepare. That includes a 6-0 mark in the playoffs with an extra week between games. NE is 13-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. NE is 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games on grass. The last nine Super Bowls the winning team has had a higher ranked offense than defense.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Behind enemy lines- dvisional playoffs

Well, not buying the point in the Jags/Steelers game kept us under .500 last week (1-2-1) and (31-11-1 for the year) so we got some make-up work to let’s get to it. Starting with the Saturday games, despite setting records and the stigma of the “Frozen Tundra” Farve is 1-2 his last 3 home playoff games, 2-5 his last 7, and thrown 16 picks to 12 TD’s over that span, this one will be close. I like the Seachickens(+8) going into Green Bay as Holmgren makes his return to the Lambeau against a team he knows as well as anyone. Next, I LOVE the Patriots(-12) vs. the Jags. After this game is over people will be asking themselves “why didn’t I see that?” as a Belichick defense with two weeks to prepare cooks up something so filthy that David Garrard doesn’t know what hit him. The Pats will put 8 in the box, force him to throw, and be waiting when he does. On Sunday, play the Colts(-8.5) vs. the Superchargers who are without Antonio Gates, meaning the colts can bring Sanders up to help stop LT, and that means that Rivers has to beat them, and I’ll take that bet. Lastly, I like the G-Men(+8) going into Dallas as Romo has yet to win a playoff game and I subscribe to the notion that beating an NFL team 3 times in one year is tough to do. They may win it, but the pressure the Giants will put on the Cancun Cowboy will keep it close, take the points. That’s the chowder, I’m Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Behind enemy lines, playoff trenches

Coming off our third straight unbeaten week (2-0-1) the record for the season is now 30-11-1 after the Skins and Superchargers took care of their business, the ONE TIME we don’t buy down the point we get burned as the Titans ended up pushing with the Colts depending when you got in.

Now it’s playoff time and time to separate the men from the boys so let’s get to it. On Saturday I like the Sea Chickens (-3 buy it down) to continue their winning ways at home. The Hawks’ have been two totally different teams this year, have a great home record but less than stellar on the road. They have beaten up on the Skins’ before in the playoffs, and look for them to do so again. In the AFC I love getting points at home and look for the Steelers (+2) to put 8 in the box and make the Jags beat them from the air, which they may not be able to do. They have also never lost twice at home to the same team in one season so I’m going to take the two points here, this also makes for a great teaser game. On Sunday the Giants are going to understand why that week of rest is so priceless as they are going to get beat by a much fresher Tampa Bay(-3) squad. Lastly,
Despite them playing so well lately, I like the Titans(+9) to play the Chargers tough. The game in Tennessee went into overtime and this will be close as well. An unexpected3-day storm has hit California and the track will be muddy and slow. White and Young will play for the Titans and Fisher will find a way to keep this one close, another great teaser. Let’s keep the Mo’ going, that’s the chowder, I’m Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Quants Corner..70% of the action is on the Jags. The Steelers are 1-4 vs. the spread their last 5 home playoff games, and are 1-6 their las 7 vs. AFC teams. The Jags are 11-5 vs the spread this season, and 5-0 ATS their last 5 vs. teams with winning records. They are also 6-0 ATS their last 6 as a favorite. All of this and I'm going the other way.
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.