Friday, November 30, 2007

Behind enemy lines...AGAIN!

Sorry for the delay but this was a tough week to get through, and after last week's 1-2(24-11 for the year) in college (our first under 500 week of the year) we needed to rebound. As for the NFL we got let down by the G-Men in a big way and it cost us our perfect week, so we ended up 2-1, 21-9 for the year. Ok, let's get to a tough weekend.

On the last regular week of college football it's rivalry's and championship games but some actually look ok to call. Firstly, we go to the Pac-10 where Arizona St's season went down the drain last week and they are a bit beaten up. Look for Arizona (+7.5) to play them tough as that game usually is close. You may have to buy the hook depending on your book but a little more than a touchdown is a nice play. Next we REALLY get into a mess with the championship games but after breaking them down I like the Vols (+7.5) as LSU is still hurt on the line and they have already lost a coordinator and soon will lose their coach as well. Lastly, I like Mizzou to keep it close so buy the hook and take it to 3.5 vs. OU in the Big-12 Championship. They are at full strength this time as opposed to their one loss of the year where their starting tailback dnp due to injury.

In the League, why play it safe? let's get into the biggest game of the weekend and play JVille(+6.5) at Indy. The colts are still pretty hurt, no Marvin, and the second time around when a team plays inter division, the under/over's reverse. Last game went over so look for this one to be low and tight, take the points. Next I LOVE the Superchargers(-6) going into play the 'Chefs'. No running game due to injuries reduces a team built to run the ball a table with three legs. Lastly, (if they can plug up all of the wholes in the ground from last week) the Steelers(-7) should take care of business with a chance to grab the #2 seed in the AFC, vs. the Bengals who have nothing to play for except pride, but they have already booked their vacation cruises. That's the chowder, I'm Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up.

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Turkey Time Picks

Happy Thanksgiving, while everyone is going to put on another 10 pounds this weekend, let’s try to make sure that some of that extra weight is a little cash in your pockets, so let’s get to it. Last week the injury bug got us again, like in the Oregon game and we dropped one on OU but won the other two to go 2-1 and 23-9 on the year. The NFL was not as kind to us and we were just going the wrong way on the Lions and Saints over bringing our record to 19-8 for the year.

This week is tough because of rivalry week in college but a couple of situations stand out because one team has much more to lose than just pride. Let’s start in the SEC where LSU will hold serve at home, stop the run, stop the rumors of their coach leaving and cover the 12 vs. Arkansas. Secondly, the dream season ends for Kansas this weekend and the “game of the century” along the border will be close but because of their greed, playing the game at Arrowhead Stadium rather than in Lawrence, take the Tigers +2.5 vs. the Jayhawks. Lastly, Jim Harbaugh will get some Michigan vibe today as his Cardinal (3.5 buy it down to 3) will beat the Irish who would rather be home.

In the League I’m flopping to the other side and going to play the Colts (-11) to beat Atlanta pretty easy. Next the G-men (7 buy it down to 6.5) to take care of business and keep the heat on vs. Minnesota who with no Peterson and No passing game may not score. Lastly, I like the Raiders, yes I said it, the Raiders (+6) vs. the Chiefs. That’s the chowder, this is Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, November 15, 2007

back in the trenches..........

Nikki has been on a roll and I hope you’ve been on the train, going 5-1 last week between college and pro (please see previous post for documentation) bringing my record to 21-8 in college and 18-6 in pro. Ok, now that my shoulder is soar from patting myself on the back, let’s get into the trenches, and this looks like a tough week. In college we start in “The Big House” where Michigan has a chance to rescue what will always be known as the season from hell, and possibly Lloyd Carr’s last game at the helm. Take the 4.5, and put on your maze and blue. It’s BCS time, and that means you can’t just win but must win big, so look at those teams that have to make a statement. With that in mind I like West Virginia (-6) going into Cincinnati. WV has played really well lately, and is 8-2 ATS on the road the last 10 in November. Lastly, play the Sooners (-8) who are 5-1 ATS the last 6 against Texas Tech.

In the league, I know you don’t bet on bad teams but I love the Chiefs +14.5 against an injury riddled Colts team w/out Dwight Freeny. The chefs should be able to run against the Colts, keep Peyton off the field, and keep it close. The second game I like is the Lions (+3.5) at home vs. the G-Men, make sure to buy the hook up by .5 as this could easily be a field goal game. Lastly, the over (47.5) in the Saints/Texans as both teams will keep going up top in the forth quarter and the Texans have played 4 straight home overs in November. That’s the chowder, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Behind enemy lines....

Well, how was YOUR weekend??? As promised we got our groove back after going 2-2 the week before and had a 4-0 week in college last week to get back our “elite” status. Nice ½ point wins with Mich St. and Bama, and easy covers with Indiana and Oregon made for a great day, bringing our record to 19-8 for the year. So here’s what’s in the trenches for this week. Ok, we’re going deep for the first pick and taking HUGE points with Louisiana Tech (+37) vs. LSU, now wait hear me out…LSU has been favorite in EVERY game this year and is 4-5 vs. the spread, plus they are looking not to get hurt and stay healthy going into the home stretch. Next I love two home dogs, Maryland (+6) at home vs. Boston College coming off their first loss of the year realization that their BCS hopes are over. Lastly, I’m going back to the well one more time and taking the points (+16) and Indiana vs. Ohio St. who is 1-5 ats the last 6 vs. Illinois.

Last week in the league we went 2-1 getting bit like most people on the Superchargers on the Astroturf vs. Peterson and the Vikings, but got good love from the Texans and Browns to finish up 2-1 on the week, and 15-6 for the year. This week I like the over(45) in the good weather of Arizona/Detroit game. Next I think the Philly/Wash game will be close and I like the Eagles to bounce back and keep it close. Buy the hook and take it to (3.5) from a field goal. Lastly, I know it’s not good to go back to the well, particularly when it has been dry well, but I’m going back to the Superchargers (+4) in a statement game at home against the wounded Colts. That’s the chowder, I’m Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, November 1, 2007

time to punch the clock.......

Well, I guess apologies are in order for jumping into the fire and playing Penn St. in Happy Valley last week that brought us back down to earth and our first .500 week. After going 2-2 last week we are now 15-8 for the year and need to get back into elite status, so here we go. We like the fact that Indiana is 3-0 vs. Ball St. since 1997 and there won’t be a lot of field goals in this one, so if they are going to win, they’ll win by a touch and the line is (-6.5), so play it. We like Bama at home (+7.5) to keep it close vs. LSU because of their suspensions, and injuries. Michigan St. (+4.5) at home vs. Michigan and staying at home with Oregon (-6.5) vs. Arizona St. once again, don’t let the number beat you, buy the hook for -1/2 from 7 to 6.5, but it’s worth it.

In the League last week we blew a perfect weekend by playing the over on Monday so ended up 2-1 and 13-5 for the year. Let’s keep the mo’ going this week, but you’ve got a little work to do. Firstly there are two games that you’re going to have to pry open your wallets for and buy some leverage. First by ½ with the Super Chargers (7 to 6.5) vs. the Vikings. Play SD to keep the mo’ going as well. Secondly, take the Texans up 3.5 from 3 on the road vs. the nasty Raiders. Lastly, Play Cleveland(-1.5) at home vs. the SeaChickens. FYI if you would have placed $100 on the Patriots on the first game of the season and let it roll you would be sitting on $254,000 right now. So, the question is would you let it roll for 508k vs the Colts (+4.5)???? It’s blasphemy, but I’d be on a beach in Ibiza earning 12% and not take the chance. That’s the chowder, I’m Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up.

12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.