Friday, October 26, 2007

Behind enemy Lines

Ok, thanks to "The Head Ball Coach" NOT showing up, we had our first under .500 weekend, but we are still 13-6 on the year in college so let's get back on track. I know the 'quants' LOVE Boise St. on Friday, and the numbers are there (7-1 ats their last 8 Friday games as opposed to Fresno who is 1-4 AND 1-10 ats vs a team w/a winning record)(Boise has won 44 of 45 WAC games!) as long as it stays at 3 you can by it down to 2.5 and play them to win the game. It's work, but that's the only way you can get some real value. Stay out west for game 2 with Washington (-3.5) to take care of business at home. I know it's a profile game but we're stepping into the fire and playing Penn St.(+3.5) to stay close at happy valley where Ohio St. is 1-4 ats. Lastly, we like West Virginia (-5.5) vs. Rutgers where they are 5-0 Straight Up the last five. Last minute addition we LOVE the under on USC/Oregon(60) Sanchez can not put up 30 pts. vs. Oregon on the road in his first big road start at SC.

In the League last week we were 2-1 (sorry about the skins) 11-4 for the year and riding some good mo, so for this week we like the Titans (-7)to beat up on a bad Raider squad. Once again buy 'the hook' down to 6.5 and get it down to a touchdown. The Nasty Raiders are are 1-6 in last 7 road games vs. the Titans. Next we like Philly(-1) at Minnesota where they are 8-1 ats the last 9 vs. the Vikings. Once again buy the hook. Lastly, we like the over (40.5) between Denver and Green Bay. Despite the weather Denver can put up some points at home and if GB gets behind they are going to have to put it in the air, which means points either way, Farvrrre interceptions or touchdowns! That's the chowder, I'm Nikki, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Late addition, although you should NEVER have 2 bets on 1 game, at 3.5 we LOVE the Broncos at home if you can get it. If not pay for the extra .5, so 4 pics in college and pro this week.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Coming off 5-1 week, let's try to keep the MO!

It’s Thursday the data is in so let’s get it. First the recap of last week…we got bit by the Cal Bears thinking they were better than they were w/o Longshore at QB but South Carolina and Mich. St. came through for a 2-1 record AGAIN! and 12-5 for the year. This week I’m going to go against one of the golden rules and go back to the same well two weeks in a row with South Carolina (-13) vs. Vandy. I love the fact that it’s homecoming season, South Carolina has never been this highly ranked this late in the year (but the ball coach has!), and for you Quants, Vandy is 1-4-1 ats last 6 road games at SC. Secondly I like LSU (-10.5) at home to get back on track and even though it’s a big number and Auburn is 11-1 straight up in it’s last 12 road games, the will be the season if they lose and LSU’s defense matches up well vs. Auburn. This game makes a great teaser as LSU is 14-0 straight up it’s last 14 at home. Laslty, I like Illinois (+2) as a home dog, vs, Michigan that has problems with mobile active quarterbacks.

Last week in the League we went 3-0 with the Pats, Browns, and Jets. I TOLD YOU THE BOYS’ WERE A FRAUD!!!! Anyway, we got bigger fish to fry this week so lets get to it. Firstly, I like the Skins’ (-9) to take care of business at home. I know it’s a lot of lumber but you got the injuries, the dog pound, a chance to get an easy win outside of the division, AND the Redskins are 4-1 ats vs. the Cards. Secondly play the OVER on Pitt/Denver (39) as Denver has had a week to contemplate their futility and Pitt has gone over 5/6 when playing Denver. Lastly, as much as I HATE betting on bad teams, I like KC (+2.5) vs. the Nasty Raiders. That’s the chowder, I’m Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, October 11, 2007

This week in College and Pro

Ok, we survived another potenaillly brutal weekend by staying off b ig favs like SC and LSU but got bit on a home dog (see Purdue) and I must apologize to the Buckeye faithful for calling them frauds, I don’t apologize, they ARE frauds and will be exposed soon, so relish in your victory. I did hit the other two picks with Michigan St. and Tennessee and going 2-1 for the day, bringing the yearly record to 10-3. This week there’s a lot to like so let’s get to it. S. Carolina -7 vs. NC, Cal in their first week at #2 and soon to be #1, is going to KILL Oregon St. with all of their injuries on offense and special teams. Add that to the fact that they are a horrible road team and Cal is an even better home team and you will be drinkin’ by halftime so lay the 14. Lastly, lay the 4.5 and play Michigan St. at home to take care of another Big-10 fraud, Indiana.

Last week we also went 2-1 on the pro’s with the AINTS blowing our perfect day. Thanks to the Chargers for taking care of the over themselves, because Denver sure didn’t show up. Lastly thanks to Bret and the Pack for paying the mortgage. On Sunday there is also an attractive slate of games, but to narrow it down to the best 3 where we can get some VALUE, which is the name of the game, we have go on the road in 2 of the 3 games. Play the Pats (-5) to expose the Cowboy fraud, the Browns (-4.5)to get better again this week and keep Miami winless, I know I hate playing against a winless team but this adds up, and lastly take Philly (-3) coming off the bye week to beat the Jets. That’s the chowder, I’m Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Late injury report:

David Carr – Questionable Damon Hurad - Out, Lamont Jordan (Raiders) out

Rudy Johnson (Bengals) out along with 6 others, Kenny Watson will play

Antwan Randel-El - Questionable but unlikely even if he suits up

Steve McNair (Titans) will try to go but doesn't look good.

Anthony Henry (Dallas) out, and that presents HUGE problems vs. the Patriots.

Fred Taylor (JVille) out.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Just a little tip from your uncle Nick

Six weeks into the college football season believe it or not the top teams against the spread are Cincinnati, Kansas, Missouri, and DUKE (1-5) but 5-1 ats! Duke goes up against Virginia Tech is 1-5 ats despite a 5-1 record. Nikki the Fish online tomorrow with his picks for the week.

Thursday, October 4, 2007

time to answer the bell

Ok, if ANYONE is still standing after the bloodbath that was last week, and we all took a hit, but we actually did ok in college going 3-1 (see last week’s blog) we hit on Cal, Clemson, and the BTR play (bet the ranch) on Michigan St. Improving our record to 8-2 for the year. We made a big speech why, despite the numbers, we were going to stay off of UCLA and they covered easily. Even though we were looking good at 14-0, and even at the beginning of the 4th qtr. This week we are going back to the well again, in other words, the fraud that is the Big-10. Frauds everywhere like Ohio St.(-7 at Purdue), and Wisconsin (+1.5 at Illinois), have been money so far and we’re going to stay with them. Lastly despite their ranking we like Tennessee (-1.5) to take care of #12 Georgia at home.
In the pros we did not do as well going 2-2, missing on SF/Sea over when Alex Smith went down, and like most in the country we were convinced that the Charger’s slow start was an aberration and not based on any relevant data. OUCH!. The Pats were money in the bank for their forth straight cover and a nice 4th quarter got Green Bay over the hump. This week, there is a lot dangerous stuff out there but for the first time we like some totals. Over on SD/Denver (42) , The Saints get into the win column (-3) vs. Carolina, and the Pack covers the 3 at home vs. the Bears. That’s the chowder, this is Nikki the Fish, “stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!”

12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.