Saturday, December 29, 2007

Behind enemy lines final NFL week

It’s rare, but for the first time in recent memory things have followed true to form the last four weeks and we ran the table AGAIN last week going 3-0 with the Colts, Jags, and the Skins’ upset, bringing the year long NFL record to 28-11. It’s slim pickins’ on the last week of the NFL schedule and you have to be careful where you step to avoid the land mines but there are some bargains as well if you know where to look so let’s get to it.

First, let’s look at the teams that have to win, then see if they’re laying too much lumber. Secondly, the home teams that are moving on to the playoffs and have nothing more to gain, so will be resting starters. Lastly, the teams that need a win and then have to wait and see if they get in, as always we will be looking for value. With that in mind, I like Washington (-9, but by down to 8.5) the crowd will be there, if they win they’re in, Dallas will be resting in the second half, kind of the perfect storm. Next San Diego (-8) still has something to play for and Russell is going to start for the nasty Raiders so this one could get ugly. Lastly, similar to scenario one, the Titans need to win to get in, Dungy has already stated that he won’t be playing starters in the second half, and the number is less than a touchdown (-6). Lay the points and take the Titans. That’s the chowder, I’m Nikki “The Fish”, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, December 21, 2007

Behind enemy lines - holiday style

Well, how was your weekend? Coming off our first losing week in the NFL the week before I went 3-0 last week to bring the year long record to 25-11, with Indy beating up on the hapless Raiders, Philly coming through and WINNING ON THE FIELD no need for the 11 in that one, lastly how easy was Green Bay -8? Ok, now that you’re wholesome again let’s get to it.

Firstly, someone please answer me how Indy is only laying 7? There must be a rumor that Dungy is going to sit people otherwise I can’t see how it can happen. Either way lay the 7 and buy it down to 6.5 for the cover. Next, it’s a HUGE number but lay the 12.5 with Jacksonville vs the Nasty Raiders. No secret here, the Jags have a shot at getting a game at home and cokeland is going to give Russell a lot of reps. Teams with totally different agendas make for a big cover. Lastly, I like the big points in the Washington (+6.5)/Minnesota game. Buy this one up to 7 as the Skins’ are going to put 8 in the box vs. the Vikes and dare their QB to beat them, and I don’t think he can. Not by more than a touchdown anyway. Ok, happy holiday, that’s the chowder, I’m Nicky, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up.

Sunday, December 9, 2007

Behind enemy lines week 14

Ok, it's time to get healthy and this is a good week to do it. After our first losing week in the NFL last week 1-2, our record for the year fell to 22-11. Backing the Cards and Chefs was not a good way to go. Thanks to the Browns for holding serve, keeping their playoffs hopes(and my reputation) alive. Enough of the salutations, let's get to work. Firstly some good betting info is that the Bengals are have not won 2 games in a row this year, are 1-5 as a road fav the last 6, and 1-6 vs. teams with a losing record. They are laying a big number (8.5) vs the niners but we have been holding off because we need to check on the weather as California football teams(coll & pro) normally do not play well in the elements. So what we like right now are the Colts (-10) vs. the Nasty Raiders with their rookie qb at the helm. Secondly, don't shoot me but I LOVE the Eagles(+11) vs. the Cowboys that just is too many points. Lastly, Green Bay is still fighting for the top seed and I like them laying the 8 vs. St. Louis. Check back with us about the Bengals game on Saturday evening. That's the chowder, I'm 'nicky the fish' stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Friday, November 30, 2007

Behind enemy lines...AGAIN!

Sorry for the delay but this was a tough week to get through, and after last week's 1-2(24-11 for the year) in college (our first under 500 week of the year) we needed to rebound. As for the NFL we got let down by the G-Men in a big way and it cost us our perfect week, so we ended up 2-1, 21-9 for the year. Ok, let's get to a tough weekend.

On the last regular week of college football it's rivalry's and championship games but some actually look ok to call. Firstly, we go to the Pac-10 where Arizona St's season went down the drain last week and they are a bit beaten up. Look for Arizona (+7.5) to play them tough as that game usually is close. You may have to buy the hook depending on your book but a little more than a touchdown is a nice play. Next we REALLY get into a mess with the championship games but after breaking them down I like the Vols (+7.5) as LSU is still hurt on the line and they have already lost a coordinator and soon will lose their coach as well. Lastly, I like Mizzou to keep it close so buy the hook and take it to 3.5 vs. OU in the Big-12 Championship. They are at full strength this time as opposed to their one loss of the year where their starting tailback dnp due to injury.

In the League, why play it safe? let's get into the biggest game of the weekend and play JVille(+6.5) at Indy. The colts are still pretty hurt, no Marvin, and the second time around when a team plays inter division, the under/over's reverse. Last game went over so look for this one to be low and tight, take the points. Next I LOVE the Superchargers(-6) going into play the 'Chefs'. No running game due to injuries reduces a team built to run the ball a table with three legs. Lastly, (if they can plug up all of the wholes in the ground from last week) the Steelers(-7) should take care of business with a chance to grab the #2 seed in the AFC, vs. the Bengals who have nothing to play for except pride, but they have already booked their vacation cruises. That's the chowder, I'm Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up.

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Turkey Time Picks

Happy Thanksgiving, while everyone is going to put on another 10 pounds this weekend, let’s try to make sure that some of that extra weight is a little cash in your pockets, so let’s get to it. Last week the injury bug got us again, like in the Oregon game and we dropped one on OU but won the other two to go 2-1 and 23-9 on the year. The NFL was not as kind to us and we were just going the wrong way on the Lions and Saints over bringing our record to 19-8 for the year.

This week is tough because of rivalry week in college but a couple of situations stand out because one team has much more to lose than just pride. Let’s start in the SEC where LSU will hold serve at home, stop the run, stop the rumors of their coach leaving and cover the 12 vs. Arkansas. Secondly, the dream season ends for Kansas this weekend and the “game of the century” along the border will be close but because of their greed, playing the game at Arrowhead Stadium rather than in Lawrence, take the Tigers +2.5 vs. the Jayhawks. Lastly, Jim Harbaugh will get some Michigan vibe today as his Cardinal (3.5 buy it down to 3) will beat the Irish who would rather be home.

In the League I’m flopping to the other side and going to play the Colts (-11) to beat Atlanta pretty easy. Next the G-men (7 buy it down to 6.5) to take care of business and keep the heat on vs. Minnesota who with no Peterson and No passing game may not score. Lastly, I like the Raiders, yes I said it, the Raiders (+6) vs. the Chiefs. That’s the chowder, this is Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, November 15, 2007

back in the trenches..........

Nikki has been on a roll and I hope you’ve been on the train, going 5-1 last week between college and pro (please see previous post for documentation) bringing my record to 21-8 in college and 18-6 in pro. Ok, now that my shoulder is soar from patting myself on the back, let’s get into the trenches, and this looks like a tough week. In college we start in “The Big House” where Michigan has a chance to rescue what will always be known as the season from hell, and possibly Lloyd Carr’s last game at the helm. Take the 4.5, and put on your maze and blue. It’s BCS time, and that means you can’t just win but must win big, so look at those teams that have to make a statement. With that in mind I like West Virginia (-6) going into Cincinnati. WV has played really well lately, and is 8-2 ATS on the road the last 10 in November. Lastly, play the Sooners (-8) who are 5-1 ATS the last 6 against Texas Tech.

In the league, I know you don’t bet on bad teams but I love the Chiefs +14.5 against an injury riddled Colts team w/out Dwight Freeny. The chefs should be able to run against the Colts, keep Peyton off the field, and keep it close. The second game I like is the Lions (+3.5) at home vs. the G-Men, make sure to buy the hook up by .5 as this could easily be a field goal game. Lastly, the over (47.5) in the Saints/Texans as both teams will keep going up top in the forth quarter and the Texans have played 4 straight home overs in November. That’s the chowder, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Behind enemy lines....

Well, how was YOUR weekend??? As promised we got our groove back after going 2-2 the week before and had a 4-0 week in college last week to get back our “elite” status. Nice ½ point wins with Mich St. and Bama, and easy covers with Indiana and Oregon made for a great day, bringing our record to 19-8 for the year. So here’s what’s in the trenches for this week. Ok, we’re going deep for the first pick and taking HUGE points with Louisiana Tech (+37) vs. LSU, now wait hear me out…LSU has been favorite in EVERY game this year and is 4-5 vs. the spread, plus they are looking not to get hurt and stay healthy going into the home stretch. Next I love two home dogs, Maryland (+6) at home vs. Boston College coming off their first loss of the year realization that their BCS hopes are over. Lastly, I’m going back to the well one more time and taking the points (+16) and Indiana vs. Ohio St. who is 1-5 ats the last 6 vs. Illinois.

Last week in the league we went 2-1 getting bit like most people on the Superchargers on the Astroturf vs. Peterson and the Vikings, but got good love from the Texans and Browns to finish up 2-1 on the week, and 15-6 for the year. This week I like the over(45) in the good weather of Arizona/Detroit game. Next I think the Philly/Wash game will be close and I like the Eagles to bounce back and keep it close. Buy the hook and take it to (3.5) from a field goal. Lastly, I know it’s not good to go back to the well, particularly when it has been dry well, but I’m going back to the Superchargers (+4) in a statement game at home against the wounded Colts. That’s the chowder, I’m Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, November 1, 2007

time to punch the clock.......

Well, I guess apologies are in order for jumping into the fire and playing Penn St. in Happy Valley last week that brought us back down to earth and our first .500 week. After going 2-2 last week we are now 15-8 for the year and need to get back into elite status, so here we go. We like the fact that Indiana is 3-0 vs. Ball St. since 1997 and there won’t be a lot of field goals in this one, so if they are going to win, they’ll win by a touch and the line is (-6.5), so play it. We like Bama at home (+7.5) to keep it close vs. LSU because of their suspensions, and injuries. Michigan St. (+4.5) at home vs. Michigan and staying at home with Oregon (-6.5) vs. Arizona St. once again, don’t let the number beat you, buy the hook for -1/2 from 7 to 6.5, but it’s worth it.

In the League last week we blew a perfect weekend by playing the over on Monday so ended up 2-1 and 13-5 for the year. Let’s keep the mo’ going this week, but you’ve got a little work to do. Firstly there are two games that you’re going to have to pry open your wallets for and buy some leverage. First by ½ with the Super Chargers (7 to 6.5) vs. the Vikings. Play SD to keep the mo’ going as well. Secondly, take the Texans up 3.5 from 3 on the road vs. the nasty Raiders. Lastly, Play Cleveland(-1.5) at home vs. the SeaChickens. FYI if you would have placed $100 on the Patriots on the first game of the season and let it roll you would be sitting on $254,000 right now. So, the question is would you let it roll for 508k vs the Colts (+4.5)???? It’s blasphemy, but I’d be on a beach in Ibiza earning 12% and not take the chance. That’s the chowder, I’m Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up.

Friday, October 26, 2007

Behind enemy Lines

Ok, thanks to "The Head Ball Coach" NOT showing up, we had our first under .500 weekend, but we are still 13-6 on the year in college so let's get back on track. I know the 'quants' LOVE Boise St. on Friday, and the numbers are there (7-1 ats their last 8 Friday games as opposed to Fresno who is 1-4 AND 1-10 ats vs a team w/a winning record)(Boise has won 44 of 45 WAC games!) as long as it stays at 3 you can by it down to 2.5 and play them to win the game. It's work, but that's the only way you can get some real value. Stay out west for game 2 with Washington (-3.5) to take care of business at home. I know it's a profile game but we're stepping into the fire and playing Penn St.(+3.5) to stay close at happy valley where Ohio St. is 1-4 ats. Lastly, we like West Virginia (-5.5) vs. Rutgers where they are 5-0 Straight Up the last five. Last minute addition we LOVE the under on USC/Oregon(60) Sanchez can not put up 30 pts. vs. Oregon on the road in his first big road start at SC.

In the League last week we were 2-1 (sorry about the skins) 11-4 for the year and riding some good mo, so for this week we like the Titans (-7)to beat up on a bad Raider squad. Once again buy 'the hook' down to 6.5 and get it down to a touchdown. The Nasty Raiders are are 1-6 in last 7 road games vs. the Titans. Next we like Philly(-1) at Minnesota where they are 8-1 ats the last 9 vs. the Vikings. Once again buy the hook. Lastly, we like the over (40.5) between Denver and Green Bay. Despite the weather Denver can put up some points at home and if GB gets behind they are going to have to put it in the air, which means points either way, Farvrrre interceptions or touchdowns! That's the chowder, I'm Nikki, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Late addition, although you should NEVER have 2 bets on 1 game, at 3.5 we LOVE the Broncos at home if you can get it. If not pay for the extra .5, so 4 pics in college and pro this week.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Coming off 5-1 week, let's try to keep the MO!

It’s Thursday the data is in so let’s get it. First the recap of last week…we got bit by the Cal Bears thinking they were better than they were w/o Longshore at QB but South Carolina and Mich. St. came through for a 2-1 record AGAIN! and 12-5 for the year. This week I’m going to go against one of the golden rules and go back to the same well two weeks in a row with South Carolina (-13) vs. Vandy. I love the fact that it’s homecoming season, South Carolina has never been this highly ranked this late in the year (but the ball coach has!), and for you Quants, Vandy is 1-4-1 ats last 6 road games at SC. Secondly I like LSU (-10.5) at home to get back on track and even though it’s a big number and Auburn is 11-1 straight up in it’s last 12 road games, the will be the season if they lose and LSU’s defense matches up well vs. Auburn. This game makes a great teaser as LSU is 14-0 straight up it’s last 14 at home. Laslty, I like Illinois (+2) as a home dog, vs, Michigan that has problems with mobile active quarterbacks.

Last week in the League we went 3-0 with the Pats, Browns, and Jets. I TOLD YOU THE BOYS’ WERE A FRAUD!!!! Anyway, we got bigger fish to fry this week so lets get to it. Firstly, I like the Skins’ (-9) to take care of business at home. I know it’s a lot of lumber but you got the injuries, the dog pound, a chance to get an easy win outside of the division, AND the Redskins are 4-1 ats vs. the Cards. Secondly play the OVER on Pitt/Denver (39) as Denver has had a week to contemplate their futility and Pitt has gone over 5/6 when playing Denver. Lastly, as much as I HATE betting on bad teams, I like KC (+2.5) vs. the Nasty Raiders. That’s the chowder, I’m Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, October 11, 2007

This week in College and Pro

Ok, we survived another potenaillly brutal weekend by staying off b ig favs like SC and LSU but got bit on a home dog (see Purdue) and I must apologize to the Buckeye faithful for calling them frauds, but..no I don’t apologize, they ARE frauds and will be exposed soon, so relish in your victory. I did hit the other two picks with Michigan St. and Tennessee and going 2-1 for the day, bringing the yearly record to 10-3. This week there’s a lot to like so let’s get to it. S. Carolina -7 vs. NC, Cal in their first week at #2 and soon to be #1, is going to KILL Oregon St. with all of their injuries on offense and special teams. Add that to the fact that they are a horrible road team and Cal is an even better home team and you will be drinkin’ by halftime so lay the 14. Lastly, lay the 4.5 and play Michigan St. at home to take care of another Big-10 fraud, Indiana.

Last week we also went 2-1 on the pro’s with the AINTS blowing our perfect day. Thanks to the Chargers for taking care of the over themselves, because Denver sure didn’t show up. Lastly thanks to Bret and the Pack for paying the mortgage. On Sunday there is also an attractive slate of games, but to narrow it down to the best 3 where we can get some VALUE, which is the name of the game, we have go on the road in 2 of the 3 games. Play the Pats (-5) to expose the Cowboy fraud, the Browns (-4.5)to get better again this week and keep Miami winless, I know I hate playing against a winless team but this adds up, and lastly take Philly (-3) coming off the bye week to beat the Jets. That’s the chowder, I’m Nikki the Fish, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Late injury report:

David Carr – Questionable Damon Hurad - Out, Lamont Jordan (Raiders) out

Rudy Johnson (Bengals) out along with 6 others, Kenny Watson will play

Antwan Randel-El - Questionable but unlikely even if he suits up

Steve McNair (Titans) will try to go but doesn't look good.

Anthony Henry (Dallas) out, and that presents HUGE problems vs. the Patriots.

Fred Taylor (JVille) out.


Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Just a little tip from your uncle Nick

Six weeks into the college football season believe it or not the top teams against the spread are Cincinnati, Kansas, Missouri, and DUKE (1-5) but 5-1 ats! Duke goes up against Virginia Tech is 1-5 ats despite a 5-1 record. Nikki the Fish online tomorrow with his picks for the week.


Thursday, October 4, 2007

time to answer the bell

Ok, if ANYONE is still standing after the bloodbath that was last week, and we all took a hit, but we actually did ok in college going 3-1 (see last week’s blog) we hit on Cal, Clemson, and the BTR play (bet the ranch) on Michigan St. Improving our record to 8-2 for the year. We made a big speech why, despite the numbers, we were going to stay off of UCLA and they covered easily. Even though we were looking good at 14-0, and even at the beginning of the 4th qtr. This week we are going back to the well again, in other words, the fraud that is the Big-10. Frauds everywhere like Ohio St.(-7 at Purdue), and Wisconsin (+1.5 at Illinois), have been money so far and we’re going to stay with them. Lastly despite their ranking we like Tennessee (-1.5) to take care of #12 Georgia at home.
In the pros we did not do as well going 2-2, missing on SF/Sea over when Alex Smith went down, and like most in the country we were convinced that the Charger’s slow start was an aberration and not based on any relevant data. OUCH!. The Pats were money in the bank for their forth straight cover and a nice 4th quarter got Green Bay over the hump. This week, there is a lot dangerous stuff out there but for the first time we like some totals. Over on SD/Denver (42) , The Saints get into the win column (-3) vs. Carolina, and the Pack covers the 3 at home vs. the Bears. That’s the chowder, this is Nikki the Fish, “stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!”

Friday, September 28, 2007

Week 5 in the NCAA and Week 4 in the NFL

Going into week four of college football means it’s time to start considering things like weather, division games, and as seasonal weather. Things get much more complicated but we’re looking to improve on our 8-1 record. Interesting dope on former top 10 team UCLA. They are 5-0 ATS their last 5 as a dog of less than 3 pts, and 4-1 ATS their last 5 overall, but we’re not taken em’, Ostate teams ALWAYS play well against LA teams at home (ie; SC 2006) so we’re staying off. Saturday we like Clemson, South Carolina, Cal, and our upset special is Michigan St. Wisconsin is the “next big fraud” to be exposed and kicked out of the top 20, play the points in this Big-10 conference game.

In the NFL there’s a few winless teams like ATL, STL, and Miami that need victories badly, but LOTS of 1-2 teams that had high hopes and may see their season, and fan base, take a serious early season exit like Philly, NYG, Da Bears, and Cin. Look for some close games this week. With that said The plays for this week are, New England vs. a “Rudy Johnsonless” Bengal team that has a secondary that gives up way too many points to stop Tommy-Gun and his band of receivers. Also the Chargers will punish the Chiefs and look to get to 500 on the season, the Niners and Seachickens will go over, and Houston will play well in Matt Schuab’s return, and the Pack is going to be 4-0 as the Vikings will not put up enough points to win, and the number is light at -2 for the pack. That’s the dope, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Football week 9/15/07 went 5-1 who was on the train?

"Nicki the Fish" picks for the 9/15 week are Kentucky, Colorado, and USC. On Sunday look for the Pats to put the turmoil behind them, the Lions to win thier home opener and the Pack to beat up on a wounded NYG club. More on the Player's Club Blog.

Friday, September 14, 2007

week 3 college picks

Lots of action this week so let’s get to it. As you know I LOVE HOME DOGS and we gotta’ plenty this week and two of them made the board. Remember the first rule of playing “dog day afternoon’ is don’t take a dog if you don’t think it can win on the field. With that said, take the Kentucky Wildcats to give Louisville all they can handle if not win. Second, The Buffalos of Colorado will handle Florida State whom will have a rough time with the altitude and defense. Also a great tease are the Washington Huskies at home getting v Ohio St. taking them up to yo-leven is a nice pick as the Bucs still haven’t found their stride yet and are ripe for the pickin’ by a hungry Pac-10 team looking to its first big win for their coach. Lastly, the BTR (bet the ranch!) game is USC to absolutely pummel Nebraska! I know it’s a lot of lumber but 10 is not that much if the other team doesn’t score and the Big Red offense did not look that good v Wake Forest who does not have half the speed of SC. Coming off a 3-0 college week last week, this is Nikki the Fish saying “stay in the ring and keep your gloves up!”

Monday, September 3, 2007

Tough Road covers for New England (6 ½) and Philly (3) on opening day as both teams play their first real game with many new faces on offense. The Pats have the potency to cover a touchdown number but any growing pains on offense could lead to a slow start and a tough cover. Makes for a nice teaser though, especially if you pair it with Buffalo at home (+3 ½). J’ville has too many question marks and strife at the quarterback position with mixed emotions among teammates about the release of Byron Leftwitch to cover 6½ as the Titans have enough offense to keep it close. The pick of the day could be San Diego to punish the Bears at home only laying 5 ½ (another nice teaser). If you must play the Thursday game the over (51) seems to be good money.

This is “Nicki the Fish”, stay in the ring and keep your gloves up.
12-5 college for the year, 9-3 in pro. If you have comments, questions on a game, or need injury and weather reports, list your question in the blog for answers. ‘Nikki the Fish’ in the Player’s Club chat room every Wednesday.